After the Defeat: Four Contenders Want to Lead a UK Tory Rebuild

(Bloomberg) - The Conservative Party calls itself the UK's natural party of government. As the Tories gather for their annual conference in Birmingham, they find themselves not only in opposition for the first time in 14 years, but forced to confront the fallout from their worst ever election defeat.

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The agenda will be dominated by debates on how to rebuild, whether to pivot to the center ground or attempt to win back votes lost to the right-wing Reform UK party. The immediate question, though, is who replaces ex-premier Rishi Sunak as leader. Four challengers remain, and they'll be trying to persuade colleagues they should be in a final pair put to a members' vote later in the autumn.

Below are the contenders, with the latest bookmakers' odds:

Robert Jenrick, Former Immigration Minister

Once thought of as a right-of-center moderate with no obvious path to the leadership, Robert Jenrick shot to prominence by re-branding himself as a warrior against "woke culture" and more recently, as a defender of "English identity." He resigned from Sunak's government in 2023, arguing the then prime minister's plan to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda didn't go far enough to reduce immigration. That positioning won him support from the right of the party, and he has topped both ballots of Tory MPs so far.

Still, the Cambridge University-educated father of three isn't a shoo-in, despite being the strong favorite with bookmakers. Jenrick, 42, is not free of past controversy; as housing secretary in 2020, he came under fire over his contacts with a property tycoon seeking planning permission for a housing development, and he was dumped from Boris Johnson's Cabinet the following year.

Odds: Gamblers on the Betfair Exchange rank Jenrick the favorite at 4/6 odds.

Kemi Badenoch, Former Business Secretary

The other contender on the party's right flank is Kemi Badenoch, who trailed Jenrick in the first two ballots of MPs, but leads her rival in recent surveys by the influential Conservative Home website. That suggests were she to make the run-off with Jenrick, grassroots Tory members would vote to make the 44-year-old Badenoch the first Black leader of any major UK political party.

But convincing MPs is her biggest challenge. The former Business Secretary has a reputation for bluntness that appeals to activists and makes supporters believe she'd be a formidable opponent to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. She's in tune with the party on issues including "wokeism," immigration and cultural identity, and was not afraid to criticize Sunak's administration (which she was part of), saying it "talked right, but governed left." But her style puts off colleagues, raising the risk that another candidate will pass her and leave Badenoch unable to take her "renewal" campaign to the grassroots.

Odds: Second behind Jenrick on the Betfair Exchange, with a 12/5 chance.

James Cleverly, Former Home Secretary

An Army Reserve officer from London, James Cleverly draws his support from the more moderate part of the Conservative Party — though his pledge to bring back Sunak's controversial Rwanda plan, which he defended as home secretary despite reports that he privately opposed the policy, appears designed to bolster his credibility on the party's right.

Current odds suggest the 55-year-old faces an uphill struggle, though some Labour supporters fear Cleverly — who like Badenoch would be the first Black leader of a major UK political party if he succeeded — would pose a risk for Starmer by winning back centrist voters who went to the Liberal Democrats or Labour last time. But his chance appears to hinge on taking support from his moderate rival (see below) and hoping a post-election Tory exodus to the Reform UK party has left the grassroots more centrist than surveys suggest.

Odds: Well behind Jenrick and Badenoch, at 11/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Tom Tugendhat, Former Security Minister

Currently lagging with the bookmakers, Tom Tugendhat, 51, is a former soldier who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, and was security minister in Sunak's government. His politics are more moderate, coming from the so-called One Nation caucus of Tories, and he backed Remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum. His campaign materials refer to Conservative "core values," and he's urged the party to "turn our back on the infighting."

But the consensus is that Tugendhat — who's also a former Bloomberg journalist — is too centrist for grassroots Tories. Early in his campaign, he said he'd be willing to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights if needed to bring down immigration. That was seen as a nod to political necessity, though it surprised some supporters. He's the nephew of Christopher Tugendhat, a businessman and Tory peer in the House of Lords.

Odds: Rank outsider at 23/1 odds on the Betfair Exchange.

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