Meet the Press – September 29, 2024

KRISTEN WELKER:

This Sunday: battle lines.

Kamala Harris is a one-woman economic wrecking ball.

As president, I will be grounded in my fundamental values of fairness, dignity and opportunity.

KRISTEN WELKER:

With just five weeks to election day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump make their pitch to voters on the economy and immigration with strikingly different approaches.

He prefers to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem.

You have to get them the hell out. You have to get 'em out.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Whose message is resonating in this final sprint? Steve Kornacki has the results of our latest poll. Plus: face off.

SEN. JD VANCE:

Are you better off now than you were four years ago?

KRISTEN WELKER:

Senator JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz get ready to meet for the vice presidential debate this week.

GOV. TIM WALZ:

This is not about power. It's about public service.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Will the VP nominees have the last word before election day? My guests this morning: Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. And: fight for justice. Our Meet the Moment conversation about a journalist and a wrongfully convicted man, and the twenty-year journey that changed both of their lives.

JJ VELAZQUEZ:

I am not an anomaly. There are hundreds of thousands of wrongfully convicted people on this earth, and they are suffering.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Joining me for insight and analysis are: NBC News Senior White House Correspondent Kelly O'Donnell; Telemundo News Anchor Julio Vaqueiro; Former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson; and Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute. Welcome to Sunday, it's Meet the Press.

ANNOUNCER:

From NBC News in Washington, the longest-running show in television history, this is Meet the Press with Kristen Welker.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Good Sunday morning. There are only five weeks until Election Day and on Tuesday night one of the biggest moments of the campaign: the debate between the vice presidential nominees. And with no second debate scheduled between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, the stakes could not be higher.

SEN. JD VANCE:

The problem with Kamala Harris is that she's got no substance. The problem with Kamala Harris is that she's got no plan. And the problem with Kamala Harris is that she has been the Vice President for three and a half years and has failed this country. Let's send her back to San Francisco where she belongs.

GOV. TIM WALZ:

He admitted to creating stories about people that live in his state, immigrant families, to spread fear and drum up hatred. They're probably not telling the truth about a lot of things if they're not telling the truth about that.

KRISTEN WELKER:

The vice presidential face-off comes against a fraught backdrop, both nationally and on the world stage. At the forefront, the assassination of longtime Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in Israeli airstrikes in Beirut on Friday. NBC News has learned that officials in the Biden administration felt blindsided by the strikes, according to current and former U.S. officials. At home, Hurricane Helene is leaving scenes of devastation across the Southeast from Florida to North Carolina, Georgia and beyond. Millions are without power. Dozens have been killed, and the death toll is still rising. On the campaign trail, both nominees blanketed key battleground states, Vice President Harris making her first trip to the border as the nominee, again attacking former President Trump for killing a bipartisan border bill.

It should be in effect today, producing results in real time right now for our country. But Donald Trump tanked it. He picked up the phone and called some friends in Congress and said, "Stop the bill." Because, you see, he prefers to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem.

KRISTEN WELKER:

For his part, former President Trump is escalating his rhetoric against migrants and attacking the Vice President.

I will stop all migrant flights immediately. They should stop them tonight. She can do that. Just sign one little page saying, "Stop the migrant flights." But she won't do that. They're infecting our country. She's taken in the worst of those people, the killers, the jailbirds, all of the worst of the people, she's taking them in. And then I have to sit there and listen to her (BEEP) last night.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Now, as both candidates focus on immigration, we've got brand-new polling this morning. I'm joined by National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki to take us through the new NBC News Telemundo CNBC poll of Latino voters. Steve, break down these numbers for us.

STEVE KORNACKI:

Yeah, Kristen, some interesting stuff here. Again, we see every four years the Latino vote becomes a bigger and bigger share of the overall electorate. Well, among Latinos, our poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 54% to 40%. Now, for some context. This is a little bit better for Democrats than they were doing among Hispanics when Joe Biden was their candidate. But I think the bigger story here is historically. 54% to 40% now is a 14-point advantage for the Democrats. Take a look back at the last three presidential elections, and these were the results in the exit polls among Hispanic voters. That 14. Look at that cut there of almost 20 points less than just four years ago. And four years ago, we were saying Donald Trump had made inroads with Hispanic voters. This suggests that that has continued apace. So what is driving this shift? Well, we see a few big gaps here. A gender gap. Familiar with this one, certainly. Men tied when it comes to this race. Women, a 26-point advantage. Again, among Hispanic voters here, there's a gender gap, as we see with polls of overall voters. Also, age, a big factor here. Look at this. Voters over 50, Hispanic voters over 50, almost a 60-point advantage for Harris, and she's barely leading with Hispanic voters under 50. In fact, among men under 50, Donald Trump actually leads in our poll by 9 points, 9-point advantage there, men under 50 for Trump. We also see an education divide. Again, we talk about this a lot when we're talking about the overall pool of voters too. Men without four-year degrees, that's now a double-digit Trump constituency in our poll. Men with degrees siding with Harris here, bigger margins among women, but we are seeing a bit of that education gap. And we are seeing a religion gap here. Among Catholic Hispanics, 20 points for Harris. Protestant Hispanics, 26 points for Donald Trump. Talking a little bit about the issues. "What's the most important issue?" we asked in this poll. Abortion clocking in there. And – and Kamala Harris, big advantage, we see that. "Being competent and effective," Kamala Harris leading there as well. But then the biggies. These are the ones that Hispanic voters are saying are the most important to them. Economy, small advantage Trump. Inflation, nine-point advantage. And how about that? On the border and on immigration, Donald Trump with a double-digit advantage: 13 points in our poll. When asked, "Who would be better on this issue?" Hispanic voters are saying, "It's Donald Trump." And that is part of a broader shift here on basic attitudes among Hispanic voters toward immigration. Look, when Donald Trump first ran in 2016, 69% of Hispanics said, "Immigration helps the country more than it hurts." That's come down to 62%. And the number who say it hurts more than helps, all the way up to 35%. There's something bigger and broader going on here, and I think you can see it finally with this. We asked a basic question of Hispanic voters, "Which party do you more identify with?" 37% now say Republicans, 49% say Democrats. But again, look at how this has shifted in just the last dozen years. In 2012, this was a 41-point advantage for the Democrats. It has come all the way down to 12 points, Kristen, a 29-point drop in terms of that gap there on – on which party Hispanics identify with in just 12 years.

KRISTEN WELKER:

The historical data really tells the tale there. Steve Kornacki, thank you so much.

STEVE KORNACKI:

You got it.

KRISTEN WELKER:

And joining me now is Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. Senator Rubio, welcome back to Meet The Press.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

Thank you.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, we really appreciate your being here. I want to start off by just saying our thoughts are with you, everyone in Florida, everyone impacted by Hurricane Helene. And I want to start right there. Is Florida getting the resources it needs from the federal government? And Senator, what are your biggest areas of concern right now?

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

Well, in any one of these storms the number one thing you want is to have power back up and the roads open. And the state's done a great job of getting the roads cleared and open. Power, obviously, is more difficult. It depends on different places. But we were at a million people without power. I don't know what the numbers are this morning, but they had dramatically dropped last I checked, last night. There are some parts of our state, I think about Cedar Key, for example, beautiful place, people love going there. It's tough to get there right now. But from all reports, obviously, it's unfortunately been pretty much wiped out. So there are some coastal areas, some of which are now facing their third storm in the last 12 months. As far as the resources, look, it's primarily – it's a state obligation, the state steps forward. If the state needs anything to give to local communities, that's where FEMA comes in. And then we're hoping to get a major declaration here today from the White House that will open up individual assistance to more counties so that individual people, who have been displaced and have nowhere to live, will qualify at the individual level for assistance in the short term while they get their lives back together. But, obviously, our thoughts are also with people in Georgia and across the – the southeast who have also been impacted by the storm as it made its way through those states as well.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, and – and again, our thoughts are with everyone as this cleanup and recovery mission continues. Senator, let me turn to the other big news this weekend, of course, out of the Middle East, the revelation that Israel has killed Hezbollah, confirming its leader Hassan Nasrallah. NBC News confirmed just this morning that Israel used a U.S.-made 2,000-pound bomb in the strike that killed him. You are vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee. How do you expect Iran to respond, and how concerned are you that this could ultimately lead to a wider conflict between Israel and Iran, senator?

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

Well, I think if Nasrallah was still alive the threat of a broader conflict is even higher. This is the guy who cheerfully said, "Death to America, death to Israel." Now, when you're a country and someone runs an organization that exists for the specific and defined purpose of destroying you, you have no choice but to treat that person as an enemy and to confront them likewise. This is the guy that spent years, you know, cheering on suicide bombings that killed innocents, the kidnapping of Israelis. There are 60,000 Israelis right now, who for almost a year – over almost a year now, have had to leave their homes in northern Israel and are living in hotels in Tel Aviv, and their kids are going to school online in conference rooms, because the group that Nasrallah headed, which is Hezbollah, was using anti-tank weapons, not guided long-range missiles, anti-tank weapons to target them and civilian infrastructure so people had to leave. What country can have 60,000 people permanently displaced? And that's what this issue with Hezbollah's all about. Israel wants a six to ten-mile buffer between itself and – and Hezbollah so they can't be using these shoulder-fired rockets to target cities and – and civilian communities so people can move back to their homes. And Hezbollah refuses to pull back. It continues with those attacks. And so Israel has no choice but to defend itself. And so, wiping out not just Nasrallah, but the senior leadership of this evil organization, I think is a service to humanity.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Do you think Iran is going to retaliate?

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

Well, I think Iran is constantly looking to – to hurt Israel, and they seem to be willing to fight till the last Hezbollah member or the last Shia militia member. Ultimately, that will be Iran's decision to make. Their goal is to dominate that region. They seek to drive America out of the region and then destroy Israel. And so any time Iran – the Iranian regime is on defense it's good for the world, good for America, and good for Israel. It'll be up to the Iranians to decide what they're going to do, but I will tell you that I believe that they will find themselves in a very precarious situation if in fact they do escalate this on their – on their part.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Let me ask you about former President Trump's policies as it relates to Iran. Just this week, he signaled he was open to potentially trying to strike a deal with Iran. Of course, he vowed to do that during his first administration when he ripped up the Iran Nuclear Deal, which did have guardrails to try to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Trump said that didn't go far enough. He wanted a better deal. That's why he ripped it up. Take a listen to a little bit of what he had to say, Senator.

PRES. DONALD TRUMP:

At a certain point, they're going to call me and they're going to say, "Let's make a deal." No preconditions, no. They want to meet, I'll meet. Any time they want. We'll be good to them. We'll work with them. We'll help them in any way we can. But they can't have a nuclear weapon. We must also make a deal that allows Iran to thrive and prosper and take advantage of its enormous untapped potential.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Senator, why didn't he get a deal done, and why should Americans have confidence that he would be able to get a deal in a second administration?

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

Well, he may not because that's up to Iran. Look, if the Iranian regime tomorrow said, "Look, we're going to stop trying to become the regional power. We're going to stop our nuclear weapons. We're going to stop sponsoring terrorism. We're going to stop trying to kill you," which is what they're trying to do with Donald Trump, "We're going to stop all of these things," theoretically, yeah, of course you could work something like that out. That's just, I think, unlikely, because they – that's the very driving mission and purpose of the regime. I think one of the things he says in that statement, which I think points to something very clearly, is the Iranian people are nothing like the regime. I know of few countries in the world whose leaders and its people are more different. The Iranian people are not seeking to be a regional hegemonic power. They're not seeking to sponsor terrorism. In fact, there's a lot of pressure inside of Iran among people arguing with all the problems they have at home, "Why are they spending all this money on Shia militias and terrorists and Hezbollah and helping Hamas and building terrorist networks in the West Bank?" So ideally that's the world we'd love to live in. And if that opportunity presents itself, who wouldn't take it? What we can't have is a world in which Iran has unlimited resources to continue to sponsor terrorism, build towards nuclear capability, and build these long-range rockets and missiles that they now have and have developed just in the last few years that threaten not just Israel and the entire region but ultimately the United States.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, and – and Senator, just following up on that point a little bit, Iran has been supplying Russia with weapons in its war against Ukraine, including drones –

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

Correct.

KRISTEN WELKER:

– including short-range ballistic missiles. And yet Donald Trump will not say that he wants Ukraine to win the war. Are you concerned about the message that that sends to Vladimir Putin and the Supreme Leader?

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

No, because I think unfortunately –I'm not on Russia's side, but unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement. And I want and we want and I believe Donald Trump wants for Ukraine to have more leverage in that negotiation. But in order to be in a position to be a broker who can bring about that agreement, I think he's going to preserve what he says. He approaches these things as someone not in politics or diplomacy but as someone with a background in business. It's not going to be easy to do, but at least there's a defined goal. The Biden administration has not defined what victory means in Ukraine. They have not defined, "This is what victory looks like." And if you press them, they will tell you what I have just said to you, which is the way this conflict ultimately ends is with a negotiation. And so we – I don't know why we can't just say that. And we hope that when that time comes there is more leverage on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian side.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Senator –

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

That really is the goal here in my mind. And I think that's what Donald Trump is trying to say, but he's going to say it like a businessman. But Biden won't even tell us what – what victory is.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, Senator, let me-you say negotiated settlement. Here's what Senator JD Vance said. He said effectively that he would like a peaceful settlement that, quote, "looks something like the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine that becomes like a demilitarized zone." President Zelenskyy says that plan is too radical, that it's basically appeasement. It means Russia would get to keep the land that it's illegally claimed. Do you agree that that sounds radical?

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

Well, I think what the deal looks like will be up to the parties when they negotiate it. Obviously, Zelenskyy is not going to come out there and say, you know, from a negotiating standpoint, is not going to go out there and predetermine what it looks like. So I understand why he wouldn't want to go out there and define what it looks like at the front end. But I think we, as Americans, the reality of it is we are investing billions of dollars into this effort, and it's important that as we invest this money into this effort that we tell the American taxpayer, "This is what the money's going towards."

KRISTEN WELKER:

Senator, we're almost out –

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

Ultimately, it's not endless war, right?

KRISTEN WELKER:

We're almost out of time so very quickly, just to be clear, would you be comfortable accepting the current lines of demarcation, as Senator Vance seems to be?

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

I would be comfortable with a deal that ends these hostilities and that I think is favorable to Ukraine, meaning that they have their own sovereignty, that they don't become a satellite state or a puppet state that is constantly held hostage –

KRISTEN WELKER:

Is that a no–

SEN. MARCO RUBIO:

– by the Russians.

KRISTEN WELKER:

– Senator? Is that a no?

SEN MARCO RUBIO:

Is that a what?

KRISTEN WELKER:

Is that a no?

SEN MARCO RUBIO:

Well, I'm not going to prejudge any agreement. I will tell you the Ukrainians don't want to live in a country where the Russians dominate their territorial – for example, Crimea. What's the future of Crimea? The Russians claim it. I don't – obviously, they stole it back in 2014 in the first invasion. You'll have to ask Obama – the Obama people why that happened under their watch. But at the end of the day the most important thing here is that these hostilities end and that Ukraine can go back to rebuilding its economy and people can move back. They've lost – millions of people have had to leave that country. It's been devastating to them. But that negotiation is going to be up to them. I just want them to have more leverage than Putin.

KRISTEN WELKER:

All right. Well, we know this will be one of the big topics on the debate stage on Tuesday night. Senator Marco Rubio, thank you very much for your time this morning. We really appreciate it.

SEN MARCO RUBIO:

Thank you.

KRISTEN WELKER:

And when we come back, Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona joins me next.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Welcome back. And joining me now is Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Senator Kelly, welcome back to Meet the Press.

SEN. MARK KELLY:

Thank you for having me on, Kristen.

KRISTEN WELKER:

It's great to have you back. I do want to start with the Middle East. The death of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah. You just heard me discussing this with Senator Marco Rubio. Are you bracing for Iran to retaliate?

SEN. MARK KELLY:

Well, I think the IDF sent a powerful message to Hezbollah, and I was listening to what Senator Rubio had said, and I couldn't agree with him more. Israel needs to get its population back, you know, to the northern border. And this has been a really challenging situation that they've been faced with, and they've got to, you know, do something about it. It's good Nasrallah is dead. He's a terrorist. He's killed so many innocent people. And that needs to be addressed, and it has been addressed, and the Iranians, you know, they're involved in this already through the Houthis and their other proxies and through Hezbollah. So, I think the message has been sent, and my hope is that there is not further conflict in the northern part of Israel.

KRISTEN WELKER:

I want to talk to you about big picture a little bit, Senator. The way in which Israel has been conducting this war. You and I discussed this back in May, and here's what you told me.

SEN. MARK KELLY:

They have to do a better job. I want to see some changes here. And I've talked to the ambassador, the Israeli ambassador, Michael Herzog, about this specifically, that if we don't see some changes, I think it is appropriate to put conditions on some of this aid.

KRISTEN WELKER:

So, you told me there, Senator, Israel has to do a better job. Have they, since you first told me that back in May?

SEN. MARK KELLY:

Well, we continue to have this discussion with the Israelis. I've talked to Israeli leadership about this, and have made it very clear to them that the type of weapon that they use and where they use them, it actually, it matters. And it matters a lot. This is a dense urban environment. In my background is a naval aviator, flying in combat over Iraq and Kuwait, it's a challenging situation, to be able to take out a target where there is a civilian population. But this is a terrorist organization they're dealing with. Hamas is responsible for initiating this conflict with what happened about a year ago, on October 7th. So, we continue to talk to our allies, Israel, about how they're conducting this operation. Hey, you know, civilian loss of life is tragic wherever it happens. And you know, the Palestinian people that live in Gaza, they're not Hamas. There are Hamas terrorists there that Israel is focused on eliminating, because they cannot have this threat so close to their border. But it's a continuous discussion.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Senator, you said, just to be very clear, "I think it's appropriate to put conditions on some of that aid if you don't see some changes." It sounds like you are not at that point yet where you want to see aid conditioned. Do I hear you accurately?

SEN. MARK KELLY:

Yes, that's correct. We continue to talk to them. I've seen some positive responses from them when I have specifically asked them to do things differently. Here's an example: I mean, the use of, you know, guided munition with a Mark 80 series bomb, you could hit a target very accurately. If you're using naval gunfire, that doesn't work so well. I've had those discussions. We see more of use of guided munitions, JDAMs. And we continue to provide those weapons. That 2,000 pound bomb that was used, that's a Mark 84 series bomb, to take out Nasrallah. That was a guided – I'm pretty confident that was a guided weapon that was used in that case.

KRISTEN WELKER:

All right. Let me ask you about another topic. You were with Vice President Kamala Harris when she visited the border on Friday. Harris has said she would extend President Biden's executive actions that restrict asylum. She would ramp up prosecutions against those who cross the border illegally. Do you support those actions, Senator?

SEN. MARK KELLY:

I was with the Vice President a couple days ago at the border. It was great to have her there. It was a really good trip. She got to meet with elected leaders, talk about these issues specifically, and how it affects Arizona, the state of Arizona. Hey, she's a prosecutor. She's a border senator, a border attorney general. She knows how to handle these issues. The executive actions that the White House took, I mean, they had to take these executive actions because Donald Trump told Senate Republicans that they were not allowed to work out a deal with Democrats. We actually had the deal, and then he told them that they had to walk away from this. Because Donald Trump doesn't want to solve this problem. He just wants to talk about problems. So yes, I mean, she's prepared on day one to deal with this issue. She said she would sign that legislation into law. It's up to us in the Senate – myself, Senator Rubio, and others – to bring that legislation back and send it to her desk.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Well, let me read to you what some immigrant rights groups are saying. As you know, they sued the Biden administration for restricting asylum, saying these policies are quote, "cruel and ineffective." What is your response to those who argue that Vice President Harris's actions would seriously infringe on the right to asylum, and that they are inhumane?

SEN. MARK KELLY:

Well, let me first start with what's inhumane, and that's Donald Trump taking children away from their parents. That's not the situation here. I mean, she is trying to manage and will try to manage a situation at our southern border that often gets chaotic and can get to a crisis level. And that's not safe for migrants. It's not safe for Border Patrol agents. It's not safe for the communities in southern Arizona. So, she's committed to working on this issue. That's why she was meeting with the Cochise County Sheriff two days ago and Republican mayors in the area. We had some productive conversations. And she's ready to deal with this on day one.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Senator, let me ask you about the economy. Of course, the Vice President also put a focus on that this week, saying she would raise corporate taxes to pay for her economic plans. Experts estimate her plans could cost about $1 trillion. The non-partisan Tax Foundation estimates that raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, which Harris has proposed, will cost jobs, reduce wages, and hurt economic growth. Do you support raising the corporate tax rate to 28%?

SEN. MARK KELLY:

Well, I think it got lowered too much under Donald Trump's tax plan, where he also, by the way, gave a giant tax cut to billionaires like himself, his billionaire friends-

KRISTEN WELKER:

So, is that a yes, Senator? Is that a yes?

SEN. MARK KELLY:

Let me say something about – I think it's worth looking at. Donald Trump added trillions of dollars to the deficit. His Project 2025 plan is going to raise costs for families $4,000, according to economists. This isn't coming from me. According to economists, it's going to trigger a recession, high inflation, costs are going to go up for the American people.I mean, that's Donald Trump's plan. Kamala Harris is focused on bringing down costs for Americans and American families on child care, on healthcare, on prescription drugs. She cares about families. Donald Trump cares about billionaires. He's made that perfectly clear in his last administration. And I expect, and his plan, Project 2025, pretty much says he's going to double down on what he did previously.

KRISTEN WELKER:

All right, Senator Mark Kelly, thank you so much for your insights this morning. We really appreciate it. When we come back, just five weeks until Election Day, and the race is still neck-and-neck. The panel is next to break it all down.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Welcome back. The panel is here. NBC News Senior White House correspondent Kelly O'Donnell; Julio Vaqueiro, anchor of Noticias Telemundo; former secretary of Homeland Security, Jeh Johnson; and Danielle Pletka, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Thanks to all of you for being here. A lot to unpack. Kelly, let me start with you. We've been tracking this week the vice president really trying to take on some of her biggest vulnerabilities. We saw that in the polling that we just unveiled today on the economy, on immigration. She was at the border for the first time as a candidate. What do you make of her strategy? What do you expect moving forward?

KELLY O'DONNELL:

They are making a very intentional strategy to take on some of these vulnerabilities and have a counter message that is aggressive. So, they are now looking at immigration as public safety. Republicans view it that way. They are trying to do that. So, you hear the vice president talking about more border agents, more technology, drones and equipment to help, and also the border bill that she wants to tie to former President Trump and to make him be responsible for that bipartisan bill not going forward. So, looking for ways they believe from other elections that have shown them to take a message that might be a vulnerability and to get aggressive about it. And so, we see that specifically on immigration and, to some degree, on the economy too.

KRISTEN WELKER:

And Julio, it's a fascinating strategy because of course our polling tells the tale in part of why this is a vulnerability for the vice president. Trump gets higher marks with Latinos on the issue of immigration. Harris is still leading with Latinos broadly but not by nearly as much as we've seen Democratic candidates in the past.

JULIO VAQUEIRO:

Yes.

KRISTEN WELKER:

For example, back in 2016, Trump won by 40 points with Latinos.

JULIO VAQUEIRO:

Yeah, absolutely. I think that is the headline. We've seen this Latino support to Democrats coming down. And, I mean, Latinos are such a complex, dynamic, diverse group. It's difficult to understand them. I sometimes wonder if there is such a thing as "the Latino vote." It's such a diverse group. But some things are true. One of them is they are losing support. Democrats are losing support. They should be concerned. This is an erosion in the – since Donald Trump came into play. Number two, Latinos are really becoming a more important group because they live in very important states right now, swing states. And then, also this shift on immigration that you were talking about, Kelly, Vice President Harris not talking about an immigration reform from a Democratic perspective. And I remember being at the Republican convention talking to the Latino delegates on the floor holding those signs we all remember, "Mass Deportations Now," asking them what they thought about it. Most of them don't feel President Trump is talking about them when he talks about migrants contaminating the blood in the country.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Yeah, Senator Johnson, how do you see this issue playing out with the vice president at the border? You know, Julio makes the good point that this conversation for Democrats used to really revolve around a path to citizenship. Certainly in the Obama administration, that was one of the big focuses. Boy, has it shifted. She's talking about enforcement. She's talking about border security.

JEH JOHNSON:

It's amazing to me how the equilibrium on this issue has shifted dramatically to the right where the dominant discussion around immigration is on border security. I think that the message she sent on Friday was, "I'm a former law enforcement officer. I have spent much of my career as a law enforcement officer. I will enforce the law. I will do what it takes to secure our border." But fundamentally, two things have to be true at once. There are two policy objectives that have to be true at once. One, secure the border, but also be fair and humane when it comes to people who are here, people who have lived here, brought here as children, who've been here for decades, who are de facto Americans. Let's give them an opportunity to be accountable. Let's take care of the DACA recipients. Two things have to be true at once. And I think she's doing an effective job of blunting any suggestion among swing voters that she will be soft when it comes to border security.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Dani, how do you see this issue playing out including – and particularly – on the debate stage Tuesday night where this is undoubtedly going to be a big topic, right?

DANIELLE PLETKA:

Right, well, this is a topic where the Republicans are leading, where the Republicans are leading even with Latinos, which to me, I have to say, about this poll – we were talking about this in the green room before. I love this poll because it really suggests to me that this is not, this is not a separate part of our country. This is not some separate group. These are Americans. They have views. Just like, you know, there's no difference in this sort of DEI world, where we want to separate people out by race and color and origin. I just love that this is a melting pot poll. So, that first. Second of all, look, I think for Kamala Harris and obviously, by inference, also for Tim Walz, this is going to be a really big challenge, because where has she been for the last three and a half years? This is her border crisis. She is the vice president of the United States. The number of non-detained immigrants in the country is twice the number. We're talking about 7.4 million people in this country right now. And we can, you know, we can throw calumnies around about who they are and what they are. But the statistics that were shared with Congress just last week about the number of criminals, murderers. You know, they're not all criminals. They're not all murderers. And they didn't all come in under Biden and Harris. But twice the number is unacceptable. That's why people are upset.

KRISTEN WELKER:

And DHS has said some of those stats actually go back as far as 40 years. But, Kelly, Dani really makes the point about why the stakes are so high on Tuesday night, including for Tim Walz, who quite frankly hasn't been in that many unscripted events. What are you hearing about how they're prepping –

KELLY O'DONNELL:

The expectation setting is starting for sure.

KRISTEN WELKER:

– and how they're feeling?

KELLY O'DONNELL:

Tuesday night will be a big, big moment. What advisors say is that it is not the kind of divisive or decisive rather – might be divisive – that you have with the top of the ticket. But for VP candidates, it is an opportunity to talk about themselves and the top of the ticket. What the Walz side is saying is that Governor Walz, who did debates as a gubernatorial candidate, has not done as many as JD Vance, who seems quite comfortable in the pugilistic debate format. And that it is, even though he's done some, not a place where he is at ease. So, part of what they say is he's been working with Pete Buttigieg, who is playing JD Vance in prep, and they expect that JD Vance will come out and be part common sense, part throw the hard punches. And what they want for Governor Walz to do is to talk about his vision and mostly to talk about Kamala Harris and to give the country a chance to get an insight about the differing visions, not to fact check him, to almost have their own separate messages. Because it's a rare opportunity when millions will be watching.

KRISTEN WELKER:

And we know JD Vance has been prepping vigorously as well. He's got Emmer or Comer, I should say, who's been helping him. No, it was Tom Emmer, I'm sorry, playing the role of Walz. What are you hearing, and what are you going to be watching for?

JULIO VAQUEIRO:

So, just as Kelly mentioned, these two candidates are not as well known. So, this is an opportunity to present themselves to the country. Then, I've been talking to borders across the country. I was in Nevada the other day asking them about the economy and what they thought about the policies that the candidates were talking about when it came to the economy. Most of them didn't really know what each candidate was proposing. So, I think – and they want to know. So, I think these debates are really good opportunities for them to talk about the issues and how they are going to improve people's lives in four years.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Secretary Johnson, with the minute or so that we have left, all of this comes against the backdrop, this horrifying backdrop, these two assassination attempts against former President Trump. You obviously, in your former role, oversaw the Secret Service. There is now a report -

JEH JOHNSON:

And I was a protectee as well.

KRISTEN WELKER:

So, you've seen it from both sides. There's now been a report that basically says things were missed. There were some massive mistakes made. What do you make of this moment and where we are?

JEH JOHNSON:

With some perspective. So, July 13th was a cataclysmic failure. Rule one is communications. Everybody has to be on the same frequency when you're protecting someone. Secret Service is in charge. But you have to be on the same frequency with local law enforcement. That was a failure. The incident on the golf course, the agent did his job. The agent spotted this gunman and fired at him. Larger picture, we have to remember that the Secret Service has to bat 1,000 every single day. This past week, they just pulled off UNGA, a massive security operation. And from all appearances, what they did was flawless.

KRISTEN WELKER:

All right. Thank you all so much. Really appreciate the great conversation ahead of the VP debate. When we come back, what will be the impact of the vice presidential debate? Our Meet The Press Minute has some answers next.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Welcome back. Tuesday's debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance will be a decisive moment in a campaign notably short on such direct confrontations. And while some of the cycle's rhetoric suggests a more personal clash between the candidates, vice presidential debates weren't always marked by this level of tension. In an interview on Meet the Press three days after her debate, Geraldine Ferraro responded to criticism that she wasn't forceful enough in challenging then-Vice President George H.W. Bush, as questions swirled around President Reagan's mental fitness.

GERALDINE FERRARO:

The debate on Thursday night that people are saying that I was subdued and I should have been Feisty Ferraro, what I wanted to do was I wanted to convey to the American public who I am, and what I'm about, and whether or not I can be a leader, leave the conclusion to them. And, again, on the age thing, that's their conclusion. Taking a look at his policies, taking a look at his plans, taking a look at his performance to determine whether or not he is competent. That's a conclusion I don't want to draw.

ROGER MUDD:

What effect do you think the debate had on George Bush for 1988?

GERALDINE FERRARO:

I think – I think his total support of the president is going to be a bothersome thing for him in 1988. He embraced, wholeheartedly, the whole right wing philosophy that has driven this administration over the past four years. And that is part of their platform. I think they'll have a problem with that in 1988.

KRISTEN WELKER:

When we come back, our Meet the Moment conversation about the fight for justice for the wrongfully convicted. Journalist Dan Slepian, author of "The Sing Sing Files" joins me with JJ Velazquez, one of the men who was behind bars for more than 20 years.

ANNOUNCER:

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KRISTEN WELKER:

Welcome back. And now a closer look at our justice system. Veteran "Dateline" producer Dan Slepian first met Jon-Adrian Velazquez, or JJ, in 2002, when he was already serving time for a 1998 murder he did not commit. From his cell in Sing Sing, JJ aided Slepian in his investigations, until he was granted clemency and released in 2021, after more than two decades in prison. "The Sing Sing Files: One Jjournalist, Six Innocent Men, and a 20 Year Fight for Justice," tells the deeply personal story of their relationship, their fight to overturn wrongful convictions and to reform the legal system. I sat down with Slepian and Velazquez for a "Meet the Moment" conversation.

DAN SLEPIAN:

I didn't know if he was innocent. I didn't know if he was guilty. And I said to him what I say to everybody who says that they're innocent to me. I said to him, "Look, I don't know if you're guilty or you're innocent. I am not your friend. I am not your advocate. All I care about is the truth. And if I find evidence of your guilt, it's coming out."

KRISTEN WELKER:

JJ, what was it like from your perspective when you first met Dan and you heard those words?

JJ VELAZQUEZ:

Initially, you know, it's always painful when you're telling the truth to someone and they're not trying to hear you, right? But it's also expected because of the circumstances that I was under. I'm being accused of taking a police officer's – or a former police officer's life, which is one of the most heinous crimes someone can be charged with. And so, as a young journalist, which Dan was when we first met 22 years ago, you know, I can't expect him to just not know me from anywhere, not have any credible sources, and just expect what I'm saying is the truth, right? So, the reality was, in that moment as he was saying that, the only thing that I could come up with in my mind was like, "How do I get this guy to really believe that I'm not playing with this, that I'm serious, I'm innocent, and I need help?" And so, I challenged him to prove me guilty. And that's what caught him.

KRISTEN WELKER:

It's not just that you're a singular case. You started covering the wrongful conviction of, again, someone who you were in jail with, David Lemus, who was also wrongfully convicted. And you were in disbelief that there could be two people in such close proximity.

DAN SLEPIAN:

I thought it was a one-in-a-million case. When I came to my own moral certainty that David Lemus was probably innocent, I visited him at the prison he was at on Thanksgiving Day, on the anniversary for the murder for which he was wrongfully convicted. I knew nothing about wrongful convictions other than this case. I thought this was a one-in-a-million case. Like, what? Like, the cops say he's innocent. Why is he still there? Like, huh? My God. Little did I know about the system. But I walk into the lobby that day, and I see a woman holding the hands of two little boys. And she stops me and says, "Are you Dan?" I hate to tell this part of the story, bro. I can – I –

KRISTEN WELKER:

Because you can see those two little boys?

JJ VELAZQUEZ:

Yeah. I wasn't there, and I can see them.

DAN SLEPIAN:

JJ's older son was on Maria's right side, Jon Junior. And Jacob, the littler one, was on her left side. He came up to her waist, you know? And I didn't know who these people were. And Maria says, "My son, JJ, he's innocent. Can you help us?" And I didn't believe her. But it was the little boy, Jacob, who looked up at me with these eyes, these huge, beautiful saucer eyes. And my daughter – my wife wasn't even pregnant yet. I was about to be a father. I mean, I've known JJ longer than I've known my daughter, who's in college.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Right.

DAN SLEPIAN:

And I looked at that boy's eyes, and I thought – my immediate thought was, "I don't care if his father's innocent or guilty. This little kid should not be in a prison on Thanksgiving morning." That was the beginning for me. And what happened from there were letters from JJ and a relationship that ensued that today, 22 years later, I would put myself in front of a train for him. I would take a bullet for him.

KRISTEN WELKER:

I know it's emotional.

DAN SLEPIAN:

He's among the closest people in my life.

KRISTEN WELKER:

JJ, and I want to talk about your relationship, but I want to talk about those little boys, because from that moment on, you were in – you were behind bars –

JJ VELAZQUEZ:

Yeah.

KRISTEN WELKER:

– for another 20 years. What was taken from them in that time, and how hard was it for you to be away from them?

JJ VELAZQUEZ:

I would say it starts with the fact that – what they took from both of us. They took the right to be a father from me. And they took the right to have a father present from them. Our lives were lived in pictures, not in real time. The only real time we had was on visits, where you can barely do anything. And for the first 10 years of my children's life, as a father, I'm scarred because they spent five days in school and one day in prison and only had one day to build their social lives. And that's just not the life for a child. They deserved better.

KRISTEN WELKER:

Through all of that pain, JJ, you never gave up.

JJ VELAZQUEZ:

No.

KRISTEN WELKER:

You continued to give every piece of evidence you could to Dan for his investigations. You continued to ask for retrial after retrial. You were never granted freedom, at that moment. How did you keep going?

JJ VELAZQUEZ:

Hope. Purpose. During the early part of my incarceration, I read this book by Viktor Frankl, and it's called Man's Search for Meaning. It's a very thin book, but it's so powerful. It was about Viktor Frankl himself, who was at the concentration camps. And he was studying the people around him. And what he found was that the people who survived the Holocaust survived because they were tied to a sense of purpose. And so that led me to believe that I had to find the sense of purpose while I was in prison. And it took a while for me to figure it out. But when my mother approached me on a visit one day, and she was just like, "I can see you slipping. I see that you're changing. Don't let this place change you. You need to grow where you're planted. They can lock up your body, but they can't lock up your mind."

KRISTEN WELKER:

In 2021, you did learn that Governor Cuomo granted you clemency. This is not a full pardon. So, in the eyes of New York, you are still a convicted criminal. But what was that moment like when the gates opened and you walked outside a free man?

JJ VELAZQUEZ:

When that gate opened, my purpose was right in front of me because my family was waiting for me right there. My children. My mother. That was my hope. That was my purpose. I think that as hard as it is for me to swallow what I'm about to say, I've realized that as much as I've been through, there was a need for me to go through that, to be in the position that I am right now, to have this conversation with you, and to be able to touch the world. Because I am not an anomaly. There are hundreds of thousands of wrongfully convicted people on this earth, and they are suffering just like I suffered. And they're not being heard.

KRISTEN WELKER:

And you can watch my full Meet the Moment conversation with Dan Slepian and JJ Velazquez at MeetThePress.com. JJ's case is not over yet. We can report for the first time he will be in court tomorrow morning where a judge is expected to vacate his conviction 27 years after his wrongful arrest. That's all for today. If it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.