Pennsylvania's Latinos could be key to deciding who wins the presidency

Rafael Collazo has been working in Pennsylvania politics for a long time. In that time, he's tried to elevate the importance of a key voting bloc that he says is often ignored in national politics: the state's growing Latino population.

This year, he feels like campaigns are finally getting the message.

"I was telling some people the other day that I'm going to be 50 years old in two months, and it took almost 50 years for the Latino vote of Pennsylvania to be sexy," said Collazo, the executive director of the UnidosUS Action Fund and Action PAC, which seeks to boost Latino interests.

"You know, it's clear the Latino vote of Pennsylvania is going to determine who wins this election," he said.

According to some estimates, there are roughly 580,000 Latinos who will be eligible to vote in this year's presidential election. That's about seven times President Biden's margin of victory in the state in 2020.

And that means even a fraction of this swing state's Latino voters could be decisive in what's expected to be a close election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

The Puerto Rican vote

One positive for Democrats: The overwhelming majority of Pennsylvania's Latino population is Puerto Rican, according to Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas, the director of research at UCLA's Latino Policy and Politics Institute.

"Puerto Rican voters across elections have shown to be much more supportive of Democratic candidates," he said.

Collazo explained the party's deep ties in the community this way: "The initial families that came here [to Philadelphia] were with labor unions. They were big city Democrats. So, the orientation for the Latino voters at that time was more homogenous and more Democrat."

Dominguez-Villegas said even as Trump and the GOP have started to see more support in the Latino population writ large, the Puerto Rican vote has stayed pretty consistent in its support for Democrats.

"They've shown to be some of the voters that have shifted the least towards the Republican Party," he said.

Trump's inroads with Latino men

But Philadelphia and other Pennsylvania cities have seen an influx of Latino voters from other countries — and they aren't as tied to the Democratic Party.

Latino men especially seem more amenable to Republicans' pitch — a trend that follows a broader gender gap in polling this year.

Angel Alvarez is a Dominican who co-owns a barbershop in Hunting Park, a predominantly Latino neighborhood in North Philadelphia. He supported Democrats for many years but lately shifted to Republicans — particularly Trump.

"I am going to vote for Donald Trump because when he was president ... he was able to fix a lot of problems and give a lot of opportunities to Hispanic people," he said in Spanish.

David Rodriguez, a ward leader for the Republican Party in Philadelphiasaid he also used to be a Democrat but has been supporting Trump for the past few elections.

Rodriguez said he's knocked on doors in both Black and Latino neighborhoods in his ward and he hears a lot of support for Trump, particularly when it comes to the economy.

"People at the end of the day, they're going to vote with their pocket," he said. "There's a hole in their pocket now and they want things to get better. And they feel that in the Trump years, things were a bit better."

These are voters that would be hard for Democrats to convince. Monica Parrilla owns an auto body shop in the neighborhood. She has worked in Democratic politics and mostly tries to engage Latino men in politics because of her line of work.

She said that culturally a lot of Latino men that she comes across are socially conservative. But they also are likely to sit out elections.

"You know, it's difficult to engage male voters," she said. "There has to be something said about earning men in general, that it's not that they don't want to vote. Sometimes the candidate needs to really earn their vote."

Edward Bonilla, who is Dominican, owns a grocery store in Hunting Park. He said he was leaning toward Trump because he felt "the economy was better" during his presidency. But he said he was now undecided and leaning toward not voting at all, after the former president denigrated Haitian immigrants during the debate earlier this month.

"You know, I'm close to Haiti," he said. "I'm from the Dominican Republic. And I don't think it's fair that he be talking like that about human beings."

Latinas for Harris

While shopping at Bonilla's grocery store, Sonia Concepcion said she is definitely going to vote — and she's going to vote for Harris.

"She represents a lot of growth, a lot of positive things," she said. "Things that I think will get America back on track. Where Trump ... his actions speak louder than words. What he's done, what he's been guilty of and he's gotten away with because he has money, I guess, or he's crooked like that."

Concepcion, who is Puerto Rican, said she hears a lot of women in her community excited to vote for Harris.

This is something that Philadelphia City Councilor Quetcy Lozada hears among her constituents, too.

"There's an interest now because they can identify with the candidate at the top of the ticket," she said, "because there are issues on her agenda that touch Latina women every day. That women's health, as one of the key components of her agenda, is important to women."

Reminding voters about Hurricane Maria

Lozado said the Harris campaign has to "speak to Latino voters directly," and that's best done by groups that already have ties to the community.

This past weekend, Spanish-speaking members of the SEIU chapter in the region held a canvassing effort in some of Philadelphia's Latino neighborhoods.

Eneida Rivera, a local housekeeper, gave one Puerto Rican voter a pitch in support of Harris that was tailor-made for Puerto Ricans.

"You know that Trump... didn't help anyone in Puerto Rico when that all happened," Rivera said in Spanish to Noreima Paulina, in reference to Hurricane Maria, which caused massive destruction on the island in 2017.

"He threw toilet paper at people, which was a disgrace," Rivera told Paulina.

Paulina responded that she understood what she was saying and also felt that Puerto Ricans should be "respected."

To Rivera, this was a successful exchange, even though Paulina didn't commit to voting for Harris.

"You see she's undecided but she's still leaning towards us," Rivera said later.

Pennsylvania's 'Latino Corridor'

Collazo, the Unidos official, said though there is more attention on the state's Latino vote, he hasn't seen that translate into significant investment.

"I think there's been an underinvestment in engaging Latinos," he said.

But the Harris campaign recently announced it planned to spend $3 million on Spanish-language radio ads throughout the state.

And Harris' running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, recently visited Bethlehem and Allentown — cities that are part of what is known as the state's "Latino Corridor," along Route 222 North, which also includes Reading.

While in the area Walz also taped an interview with a well-known Latino radio personality, Victor Martinez on La Mega Radio, whose show reaches Latino markets across the corridor.

But Mike Toledo, president and CEO of El Centro Hispano in Reading, said more needs to be done on the ground level to reach these voters, especially in his city.

"There is a huge missed opportunity in central PA," he said. "There are more Latinos along that corridor in central PA than there are Latinos in Philadelphia or Pittsburgh. So, I've been trying to, you know, shout that out, you know, from the mountaintops, 'Hey, you can forget about central PA.'"

Angel Figueroa, a Latino activist in the area, said Democrats should be more focused on these communities.

"You know, typically at this time we would have typical Caribbean-style elections — caravanas, sound trucks," he said. "You know, everything we think of to have this, this consistency and this and sort of like heading toward a celebration, and that's how Latinos come out to vote."

Months ago, the Trump campaign set up an office in downtown Reading in a space that used to be used by Democratic campaigns.

Figueroa, who's backing Harris, said consistent community-level engagement is key in getting Latino voters to the polls. But he said that work needs to start soon.

"I'm a little concerned," he said. "It's been a little too quiet ... because Reading and Allentown will determine who's going to be the next president of the United States."