Bleacherreport
Predicting 2025 NBA Rookie Stat Leaders in Every Major Category
E.Wilson27 min ago
- Adam Hagy/NBAE via Projecting NBA rookie stat leaders also means predicting who'll receive regular minutes. Very few first-rounders will have a chance to start right away in 2024-25. We could see unlikely names lead traditional categories like points, assists, rebounding, steals, blocks and shooting percentages. Role and readiness will be obvious factors in every rookie's ability to put up numbers. Based on the strength of last June's class and the teams each pick went to, we're likely to see lower-than-normal averages from the top rookie scorer, passer and shot-blocker.
- David Dow/NBAE via Zach Edey wouldn't have been a projected favorite to lead rookies in scoring on June 25. That was before a team with an immediate need for an interior presence used a top-10 pick to get him. The Memphis Grizzlies took the 22-year-old center over younger prospects with perceived higher long-term ceilings like Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis and Nikola Topić. The pick suggests Memphis has intentions of using Edey right away, potentially in a starting role for a team looking to get back into contention. Even No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher could have a tough time getting consistent scoring chances, given Atlanta's group of wings/forwards and Risacher's creation limitations. On paper, the Grizzlies' 7'4" big man is in a good situation to be routinely set up for easy-basket opportunities, thanks to Ja Morant's gravity and playmaking, Desmond Bane's spacing and expanding passing game and Jaren Jackson Jr.'s ability to pull bigs away from the basket. At Edey's size, with his improved touch and conditioning, high-percentage finishing opportunities should inevitably be there for him on a consistent basis. He'll generate most of his offense rolling off screens, crashing the glass and waiting in the dunker's spot. But even NBA defenders could have trouble contesting the 300-pounder's over-the-shoulder game from the post. As long as Edey isn't in foul trouble every game, he could be good for double-digit scoring. And in 2024-25, that may enough to lead all rookies, with Reed Sheppard in a deep Houston Rockets' rotation, Rob Dillingham playing behind Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards, and Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. moving ahead of Ron Holland in Detroit.
- David Dow/NBAE via Zach Edey put together two of college basketball's three best offensive rebounding seasons on record. At 7'4", 300 pounds for a team that drafted him No. 9 and can immediately use his interior presence, the 22-year-old rookie has both advantageous, outlier measurements and projected minutes to continue bringing down boards at a high rate. Jaren Jackson Jr. has averaged just 5.5 rebounds per game for his career. The Grizzlies can use Edey's massive body right away for interior intimidation and physicality. He carves out an incredible amount of ground and airspace with his thickness, strength, outrageous 7'11" wingspan and 9'7" standing reach. Technique mostly goes out the window with Edey's body, which NBA bigs will instantly have trouble moving. Alex Sarr has never put up impressive rebounding numbers, and as long as Deandre Ayton is still in Portland, Donovan Clingan won't have the same opportunities that Edey will get in Memphis.
- Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Unless an injury takes out Chris Paul, Mike Conley, Tyrese Maxey or Keyonte George, Bub Carrington may be looking at the most point-guard usage among rookies. Stephon Castle could wind up starting, but Paul will take on heavy playmaking responsibilities. And Rob Dillingham, Jared McCain and Isaiah Collier are all currently slated for backup roles that value their scoring. Carrington has the clearest path to the lead ball-handler job, especially during the second half of the season, when the Washington Wizards will prioritize their rookies and 2025 lottery position. Tyus Jones also signed with the Phoenix Suns, and Malcolm Brogdon looks like a midseason trade candidate with his expiring contract. Carrington backed up his 5.2 assists per game at Pittsburgh with 5.2 assists during summer league. He makes smart reads off the dribble in ball-screen and isolation situations. At 6'4" in a potential lineup with shot-makers Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma and Corey Kispert, plus Alex Sarr who can both pick-and-pop or roll, Carrington has the positional size, surrounding shooting weapons and an athletic finisher, which should allow for his previous passing numbers to translate.
- Stephen Gosling/NBAE via The battle for top rookie shot-blocker figures to be close between Alex Sarr, Donovan Clingan, Zach Edey and Yves Missi. Sarr right now has to be the favorite based on his expected playing time, 7'1" size and mobility and NBL numbers ( 8.0 block percentage ). Despite the Washington Wizards signing Jonas Valančiūnas, who could force Sarr to spend more time defending away from the basket, a projected 30-plus minutes per game should be enough for the rookie to consistently make plays on the ball, whether it's as a paint anchor or weak-side rim-protector and perimeter shot-contester. A projected backup role puts Clingan at a disadvantage. And historically, Edey doesn't block shots at a top-notch rate, though improved foot speed has elevated his defensive playmaking ability and presence. Missi is also a realistic candidate to lead the class in shot-blocking if the New Orleans Pelicans feel comfortable starting a rookie. But he's not as long as Sarr, who'll also have more freedom to play through mistakes for a rebuilding Wizards team.
- Adam Hagy/NBAE via A 4.6 steal percentage at Kentucky led all drafted players and highlighted Reed Sheppard's signature defensive anticipation. He's demonstrated an unteachable knack for jumping opponents' moves/decisions and passing lanes. Special hand-eye coordination and hand speed should continue translating to strips and deflections, regardless of the situation. Zaccharie Risacher, Stephon Castle and Rob Dillingham may also wind up playing more minutes per game. And Sheppard should still rack up more steals with how far superior he is at making reads with lightning-quick reactions on the ball. Risacher and Castle still possess more defensive value/upside than Sheppard, who could have difficulty containing explosive ball-handlers or defending bigger guards. He'll create one to two turnovers per game, while Risacher and Castle have the chance to effectively contest/change dozens of shots.
- Adam Hagy/NBAE via On paper, it can look difficult to picture Reed Sheppard playing enough minutes to put up significant numbers. But coach Ime Udoka may find his particular skill set—plus his readiness to execute it—too useful for this particular rotation. The Houston Rockets last year ranked 12th in three-point attempts and tied for 23rd in three-point percentage. While Sheppard was able to showcase some hidden creation during summer league, Udoka will mostly value the 52.1 percent three-point stroke his No. 3 pick unleashed at Kentucky. He was over 50 percent on both catch-and-shoot and pull-up threes, per Synergy Sports . Sheppard, whose efficiency, decision-making and impact on winning last season translated to a box plus-minus that was top-15 all-time among NCAA freshmen, could potentially steal minutes from Jalen Green if the former No. 2 pick doesn't make a fourth-year jump. Zaccharie Risacher may be Sheppard's biggest challenger for the three-point-makes champion. The No. 1 pick should have a built-in starting role, and he arrives in Atlanta after a breakout season behind the arc. But we'll still buy Sheppard's superior consistency and the likelihood he's able to carve out a regular role for a Rockets team that needs more shot-making, IQ and connector play.
Read the full article:https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10130000-predicting-2025-nba-rookie-stat-leaders-in-every-major-category
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