80,000 children could be forced to leave private schools over Labour's VAT raid, survey of parents says

Some 80,000 children could be forced to leave private schools due to Labour's tax raid on fees, according to a survey of parents.

From January, parents of the UK's 620,000 private school pupils face a 20 per cent hike when the Government imposes VAT on fees.

While the Government predicts the increase will see between 18,000 and 40,000 children shift from private education into state schools – between 3 and 7 per cent – a report released this week will warn that 13 per cent – more than 80,000 pupils – could leave by January.

The Government claims that it stands to raise £1.5 billion by levying 20 per cent VAT on fees. But the findings in a new Wealth Index Report by financial planners Saltus, based on a survey of 2,000 affluent parents, will pile pressure on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to axe the tax raid.

The bombshell report follows calls from a leading think-tank, the Adam Smith Institute, for the Government to 'rethink the policy' because it could end up costing more than it raises in tax, as overwhelmed state schools are forced to find thousands more spaces.

Labour's sums come from a disputed Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) policy paper which claimed as few as 3 per cent of pupils would leave private schools if VAT was introduced.

Some independent schools – including Eton – have said parents will have to stump up the full 20 per cent rise, but other schools will try to freeze or reduce fees to help families.

Head teachers of private schools across the country say they are already experiencing worrying falls in pupil numbers, while the Government is facing legal challenges on the policy, including from parents of special needs

children who say it will force many into 'unsuitable placements' in the state sector.

Christine Cunniffe, the principal of LVS Ascot in Berkshire, had already seen pupils dropping out ahead of this school year, with at least one in ten expected to be gone by January and a fifth by next September.

She said: 'So far I have received notice for a further 15 pupils going in January, stating the VAT charge is the reason.

'We are estimating we will lose 20 per cent of our pupils by September 2025, but it could be a lot worse – we just don't know what we are dealing with. It will not be a positive story for us.'

At Bradford Grammar School, headmaster Simon Hinchliffe said that 'despite record interest in the school at open days', there were 10 per cent fewer pupils than last year coming into Year 7.

He added: 'We have seen a cumulative growth in anxiety about what this Labour Government is going to do to fees.'

Headmaster Nick Pietrek at Stafford Grammar School said: 'I have heard estimates there could be a 40 per cent decline in school numbers over the next five years – these are not wide of the mark.'

Loveena Tandon, from the Education Not Taxation campaign group, said they were 'not surprised' by the figures while claiming the Government had still failed to meet them for talks despite their recent petition with 200,000 signatures calling on Labour to halt its plan.