4 stats that will make or break the rest of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2024 season

The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading into Week 10 with a 6-2 record and a very narrow lead in the AFC north. Though there are plenty of uncertainty with a challenging schedule up ahead with a full slate of divisional games, there have been plenty of indicators that the additions they've made this off-season and transformation at OC in quarterback could just be the recipe that they've been looking for.

What will they need to do to piece together a strong finish for the season? Here, we will examine several stats that have defined the teams first eight games of the season and how those stats will either make or break the second half.

Russell Wilson is averaging 12.5 yards per attempt on play action this season. That 12.5 yards per attempt average on play action ranks second among all quarterbacks in the league (min. 25 play action dropbacks) this season. 2024 marks a career-high usage rate for Wilson under play action with (36.9%), and his 9.5 yards per attempt average, 111.9 passer rating and 271 passing yards per game all are career-high marks. Sure, it's a two-game sample size, but Wilson's early results in Arthur Smith's offense are a huge plus.

We should expect a heavy play-actin offense to continue, too. Over three seasons with Smith Atlanta's head coach (2021-2023), the Falcons ran the second-highest play action rate in the league at 33% (only behind the Dolphins at 34.5%). In that same span of time, the Pittsburgh Steelers ranked dead last in the league for play action percentage (17.6%).

Wilson's strength when utilizing play action have long been known, which is why his addition this off-season felt like a great pairing with new OC Smith. And even despite being more physically limited than teammate, Justin Fields, Wilson has been able to sell the fake in a way that defenses have had a more difficult time disturbing.

The heavy use of that play action — one of Wilson's strengths – paired with the physicality of the run game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren has the opportunity to unlock a massive second half, especially as Wilson is further removed from the calf injury that flaked him early on. There is also the consideration of the Steelers newest wide receiver Mike Williams, it was acquired at the trade deadline, but we will talk more about his fit in the offense here shortly ...

The Steelers' +68 point differential ranks fourth in the NFL and leads the AFC North. Keep in mind that this point differential includes games from the pre-Russell Wilson era (Weeks 1-6) where the Steelers managed to exceed 25 points just once in Week 6 against the Las Vegas Raiders. In Wilson's two games as a starter, the Steelers have outscored their opponents 63-28.

The combination of a bend-don't-break defense under Teryl Austin and a now more-explosive passing game (which also helps to open up the run) should give them a continued edge in the second-half of the season, with a greater point differential than all but one of their opponents (Washington Commanders, +74) remaining on the schedule.

The Steelers' defense is littered with playmakers on defense, between DT Cam Heyward who is surprising with yet another incredible campaign at the age of 35 and new additions to the secondary playing well between CB Donte Jackson and S DeShon Elliott. They've also just added some help on the edge with the acquisition of pass rusher Preston Smith from the Packers at the trade deadline to work alongside T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig (when healthy) and already are a top-six unit in terms of each of the following:

EPA per play against (-0.096) — Sixth-lowest Scoring drive percentage allowed (28.2%) — Third-lowest QB hit percentage (11.9%) — Leads the league Offensive turnovers forced (15) — Tied for fourth-most Mike Tomlin has gone 70-31-1 against AFC North opponents. Of the 23 coaches in NFL history to have coached 50+ intradivisional matchups, Tomlin's .693 winning percentage in such games ranks fifth in the common Super Bowl era only behind John Madden (.779), George Allen (.711), Tom Landry (.703) and Mike McCarthy (.693).

That stat becomes a particularly important one to note when considering the fact that the Steelers are set to play all six of their AFC North matchups in the coming nine weeks. It was an odd scheduling move, as one of just two teams to enter Week 10 without having played an intradivisional matchup.

Last season, the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers went 5-1 against the AFC North despite a crippling offense and a rotation of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph (underrated) at quarterback.

New Steelers WR Mike Williams leads all wideouts in contested catch rate (32.5%) over the past five seasons. There are 44 wide receivers with 300+ regular-season targets in that span, and Mike Williams leads the entire pack. That's good, no?

While Williams wasn't the WR2 most Steelers fans were hoping for after being teased with more tantalizing options like Brandon Aiyuk and Davante Adams. However, there's no doubt that what Williams brings to the table could fit quite well with what the Steelers are rolling with right now — a physical run game and the successful usage of play action to open up big plays down the field. Though Williams is still undoubtedly a bit rusty, having missed most of the offseason program in his return from an ACL, his jump ball skills remain a staple of his play.

If he can continue finding success in these situations, the Steelers will have two contested catch afficiandos on the receiving end of Wilson's moon balls — a great complement to what's currently working in the offense. With him lining up opposite George Pickens — similarly skilled in this area — there is a lot to like about the potential for the passing game moving forward.

Ironically, the other receivers ranked top-five include Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool and Allen Robinson II — two of whom are former Steelers.