5 things to watch in Michigan State vs. Penn State and a final score prediction

Six months after Michigan State announced it was moving its final home game up a day and to Detroit, the regular-season finale is here.

The Spartans (4-7, 2-6 Big Ten) face No. 11 Penn State (9-2, 6-2) on Friday (7:30 p.m., NBC) at Ford Field with the Land Grant Trophy on the line.

Here are five things to watch in the game and a final score prediction:

Fight to the finish

The Spartans endured their head coach being suspended and fired for cause in September, players departing for the transfer portal and six straight losses. But they didn’t fold, continued to fight and have won two of their last three under interim coach Harlon Barnett, including a late comeback last week at Indiana.

Barring a major upset against Penn State and earning a bowl bid at 5-7 if there aren’t enough teams to fill all the spots, Friday night will be the last game for this team. The Spartans want to get Barnett a win in what will likely be his final outing leading his alma mater while the Nittany Lions are looking to land a New Year’s Six bowl bid.

Michigan State has one of the nation’s toughest schedules and this will be the latest game against a ranked opponent. The Spartans are 0-3 against top-10 teams this season and were outscored by a combined margin of 128-10 in losses against Washington, Michigan and Ohio State – all unbeaten squads in the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff. We’ll see if Michigan State can change the narrative and put together a competitive performance against the Nittany Lions, whose losses were by single digits against the Buckeyes and Wolverines.

Facing another top-five defense

Michigan State has already faced two teams ranked in the top five in the nation in total defense in Michigan and Ohio State. The Wolverines beat the Spartans 49-0 for the most lopsided loss in the 100-year history of Spartan Stadium and Michigan State managed only a field goal in a 38-3 at Ohio State. The Spartans had only 182 yards of total offense in both games.

Penn State is No. 2 in the country in total defense (238.7) and fourth in scoring defense (12.5) and hasn’t given up more than 24 points in a game all season. The Nittany Lions have NFL talent at all three levels of defense, including ends Adisa Isaac (13.5 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks) and Chop Robinson (four sacks) and cornerback Kalen King, a Detroit native who earned All-American honors last season.

Michigan State is 118th in the nation in total offense (310.8) and 125th in scoring (17.4) while being held to single digits in points three times and shut out once. The Spartans showed life last week in a 24-21 win at Indiana as Katin Houser posted career highs while finishing 25-for-39 passing for 279 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.

Heading into the last game on the schedule, Michigan State is dealing with a slew of injuries and added more last week at Indiana on the offensive side of the ball. Starting center Nick Samac suffered a lower leg injury in the first quarter, was carted off the field and won’t be available on Friday. Starting running back Nathan Carter collapsed to the field in the third quarter for an undisclosed reason, didn’t return to play and is questionable against the Nittany Lions. The Spartans have also been without two starting receivers, Tre Mosley and Jaron Glover.

Encore performance for Maliq Carr?

Now in his third season with the Spartans, Maliq Carr finally broke through with a monster game. The redshirt junior tight end set career highs with seven receptions for 119 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win at Indiana. That was the most receiving yards for a Michigan State tight end since Dion Simms posted 122 in a 2012 win against Eastern Michigan.

Carr, who also forced a fumble on an Indiana interception return, capped the game with a highlight-reel play. He hauled in a catch from Houser and absorbed a big hit before staying on his feet for a game-winning 36-yard touchdown with 1:19 to play. That performance led to him being selected as the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week.

At 6-foot-6 and 260 pounds, Carr has NFL size and athleticism and the ability to be a major mismatch when healthy and locked in. Now closing out his fourth year in college after spending one season at Purdue, Carr could be heading into his final game with the Spartans before declaring for the draft. Another big game against a strong defense would only boost his stock.

Turnover focus

After three straight games without committing a turnover, Houser doubled his career interception total with two against the Hoosiers. One was quickly back in Michigan State’s possession after Carr forced the fumble on the return that was recovered by receiver Alante Brown. Houser was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week after his first three-touchdown game but was not pleased about the two picks.

Last week’s win at Indiana was only the second time this season Michigan State lost in turnover margin but won the game, following a Sept. 9 victory against FBS program Richmond. That’s not a surprise and the Spartans have almost zero margin for error. Michigan State is tied for 104th in the country in turnover margin at minus-5 while Penn State is first at plus-18. The Nittany Lions scored 17 points off three turnovers by Rutgers last week.

If the Spartans are going to have a shot on Friday night, they can’t afford to cough up the ball and could certainly use an extra possession or two. Penn State is averaging more than double Michigan State’s point total (36.7 to 17.4) but the Nittany Lions are 74th in the nation in total offense (373.3) and coach James Franklin fired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich after a loss to Michigan earlier this month.

Quarterback Drew Allar has completed 60.8 percent of his passes this season for an average of 185.8 yards per game with 21 touchdowns and only one interception. He was injured in the third quarter of last week’s win against Rutgers and didn’t return but Franklin said he expects the sophomore, who has done a great job protecting the ball, to play against the Spartans.

Ford Field atmosphere

Friday will mark the Spartans’ second game at Ford Field, following a 30-17 win against Florida Atlantic in 2010, and the first Black Friday game for the program. Michigan State players have constantly expressed excitement about the opportunity to play at an NFL stadium in another primetime matchup.

When athletic director Alan Haller in May announced the Spartans moved the game from East Lansing to Detroit, the reaction from fans was mixed. What the crowd looks like for the game – both in size and which side is being supported – will be interesting. Home finales at Spartan Stadium in miserable weather while the students were on Thanksgiving break were poorly attended numerous times recently. But, with the game being in a climate-controlled environment and in downtown Detroit, maybe that will lead to a large draw in the 65,000-seat stadium.

Michigan State hasn’t been able to effectively move the ball with consistency and score points against Power Five competition this season and it’s difficult to envision that changing in the finale against another very stout defense. Penn State will keep the Spartans in check and pull away in the second half for its 10th win of the year. Penn State 34, Michigan State 10