7 things to watch on Election day in Lancaster County

The many, many polls conducted in the past two months show the presidential race to be a toss-up in Pennsylvania, with the measured support for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump falling well within the different surveys' margins of error.

But there's no doubt about how Lancaster County will go in that race: Trump will carry the county comfortably. Other Republicans running for statewide office – notably Dave McCormick for U.S. Senate and Dave Sunday for attorney general – will also carry the county by large margins on Tuesday.

That doesn't mean there aren't interesting things to watch for as returns begin to come in from precincts across the county. The numbers in Lancaster County could speak volumes about the presidential race. And just because Trump will win the county handily doesn't mean there aren't local races where Democrats stand to make gains.

READ: Early voters in Lancaster County frustrated by long wait times, grateful for election staff

Here's what LancasterOnline's reporters and editors will be watching closely in the hours after polls close Tuesday evening:

Trump's lead in Lancaster County

Trump's scale of victory in Lancaster County will determine whether he wins the 19 electoral college votes from Pennsylvania, which has seen its recent presidential elections come down to the margins.

Between Sept. 30 and Oct. 28, more than 5,200 new Republicans registered to vote, pushing the party to more than 187,000 registered voters countywide. Democrats haven't kept pace. They gained less than 1,500, reaching more than 114,000 registered voters on Oct. 28. That is fewer registered voters than the party had on Nov. 1, 2020.

The latest figures show a 51% Republican majority of registered voters in Lancaster. Democrats hold 31% and the remaining 18% are independent or third-party voters.

Trump's proportion of votes in Lancaster County during the 2020 and 2016 elections were almost identical at 57% and 56%, respectively. Statewide, Trump lost Pennsylvania to President Joe Biden in 2020 by 80,000 votes and defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by about 44,000 votes.

Bottom line: Trump won 160,209 votes in the county four years ago, 20,000 less than the total number of registered Republicans that year. If he comes closer to winning every GOP voter, he's likely on track to win the state again.

READ: Voter turnout could be the deciding factor on Election Day, latest F&M poll finds

The bar for Democrats

For Harris, Lancaster County Democrats want to best the roughly 116,000 votes cast for Biden in 2020. That figure was 41% of total presidential ballots countywide.

Democrats insist they're gaining traction in the bright red county, receiving national media attention from The New York Times this year for their efforts. And the Harris campaign has also targeted Lancaster more than past Democratic candidates, aiming primarily at winning as many Republicans dissatisfied with Trump as she can.

The closer she can come in these historically Republican districts, the less pressure there will be on turnout among registered Democrats in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and their suburbs. If Harris wins more than 41% of the county's votes on Tuesday, it's a reason for local Democrats to celebrate.

READ: What do all of those presidential polls mean? A Q&A with F&M pollster

U.S. Senate race

U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr., a three-term Democrat, is facing a tough challenge this year from former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick, a Republican.

Control of the Senate is potentially on the line. Democrats hold a 51-49 Senate majority and with Maryland and West Virginia likely to swing Republican this year, taking out Casey would guarantee the GOP control of the chamber.

Like Harris, Casey looks to close the gap in Republican districts to contribute to his statewide tally. In 2018, facing Republican Lou Barletta, Casey got his best result in Lancaster County since his first run for Senate in 2006, losing by just 8 percentage points.

Dave Sunday

York County District Attorney Dave Sunday is running for the Pennsylvania attorney general seat against former Auditor General Eugene DePasquale.

Carrying the Republican Party banner will likely be enough for Sunday to win Lancaster County comfortably. But, again, the margin of his win will be critical as he seeks a statewide office that a Republican hasn't been elected to since 2010.

Helping him further in Lancaster County is the support he obtained early on in the GOP primary from much of the county's top Republican officials, including U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker.

Lancaster County's one closely fought House race this year is in the 41st District , where incumbent Republican Brett Miller faces challenger Brad Chambers, a Democrat. Republicans hold a plurality of registered voters in the district, but Democrats showed new strength in the 2023 municipal elections.

The candidates have raised more than $250,000 combined , as of Oct 21. And with the two parties vying for control of the House, which Democrats hold by a single seat, that figure will likely be significantly higher by Election Day.

READ: Women voters in Lancaster County say they'll be a 'force to be reckoned with' this election year

Speed of counting mail ballots

In 2020, it was the Saturday after Election Day when the major news networks declared that Joe Biden was president-elect. The delay had everything to do with the combined complications of a global pandemic and a huge number of voters choosing to cast their ballots by mail.

Another complicating factor was that it was the first general election under Pennsylvania's no-excuse mail voting law; many elections offices were still adapting to processing big volumes of mail ballots.

This year, it's unlikely that Pennsylvania voters will have to wait that long to know who won the major statewide contests. Counties have much more experience with processing mail ballots after navigating three more years of primary and general elections.

Lancaster County, like others, acquired machines that can quickly sort and scan large batches of ballots, and also bought three new high-speed letter openers.

According to the Department of State, 57,335 mail ballots had been returned as of Friday. Registered Democrats cast 47% of those, 40% were from Republicans and the remaining 13% came from independent voters.

The Department of State data showed 17,056 ballots were yet to be returned by county voters who requested them. Thirty-seven percent were from registered Democrats, 42% from Republicans and 21% were from independent voters, the Department

In 2020, nearly 91,000 mail ballots were returned by Lancaster County voters.

In recent elections, the county has processed nearly 100% of the vote within six hours of the 8 p.m. poll closing time, leaving only provisional ballots to be adjudicated by the county, a process that must begin within seven days after the election. In 2020, about 5,000 provisional ballots were cast in the county.

Voter turnout

The 2016 election saw a 70.11% voter turnout among registered voters in Pennsylvania, the highest turnout since 1992, according to the Department of State. But 2020 topped it at 76.07%.

It was even higher in Lancaster County. The Department of State reported that 282,557 voters cast ballots in the county in 2020 out of 354,296 registered voters. That's 79.7% turnout.

Turnout this year is pivotal for either candidate's hopes of winning. Recent polls, including October's Franklin & Marshall College poll , show Harris' narrow lead slimmed when "likely" voters are compared to those simply registered to vote.

Will turnout in the county surpass 2020's level? If it does, it's a good sign that democracy is alive and well in Lancaster County. It's also probably very good news for Trump and Republicans.

Staff writer Tom Lisi contributed to this report.