A blueprint to fix Everton: Branthwaite must start, Ndiaye as the No 10, give Beto a go
It would be easy to concoct a hard-luck story from Everton's 1-0 defeat away at Southampton.
Sean Dyche's side hit the woodwork three times, including 25 seconds before Adam Armstrong's late winner, and were thwarted by some inspired goalkeeping from Aaron Ramsdale. On the balance of chances, they should have escaped with at least one point and probably all three.
Football is like this sometimes. In a low-scoring sport, the bounce of the ball or the width of a post can be decisive but hard-luck stories tend to wear thin over time, giving way to broader, long-term trends.
The simple fact right now is that Everton are exactly where they deserve to be based on what they have produced this season.
They are 16th in the Premier League table and are 16th when it comes to expected goal difference — a key underlying metric used by analysis departments, including Everton's, to assess performance.
Slow starts are nothing new to them or Dyche at this stage. For the latter, they are almost par for the course historically. But there is a contrast to be drawn — and not a particularly positive one — between the opening 10 games of this season and the equivalent spell last time around.
Where last season Everton were able to take solace from the underlying numbers — which suggested Dyche's side were performing well but lacking a finishing touch — 12 months on they will struggle to find crumbs of comfort.
Whether in attack or defence, they have dropped off this season and are not tracking anywhere close to the 48-point total, prior to PSR deductions, they earned last campaign.
The concern is this: according to Opta's team rankings, no Premier League club has had a more favourable set of fixtures than Everton this season.
Few will have a harder December, either, given the upcoming games against Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City before Christmas.
The need for improvement is clear. But how can Dyche fix it?
Bring back Jarrad Branthwaite
Let's start with the obvious. Branthwaite is Everton's best defender and cannot be left on the sidelines any longer. As a pacy, left-footed, ball-playing option, his presence adds balance in a crucial part of the pitch and negates the weaknesses of some of his team-mates.
Branthwaite, 22, has had a difficult campaign, missing pre-season due to injury and playing just once in the Premier League. His fitness has had to be managed carefully to avoid further setbacks, but he has been available for the last two games and forced to watch from the bench.
Dyche's explanation is that he has been happy with how central-defensive duo James Tarkowski and Michael Keane have done in the England international's absence, and not wanted to disrupt the spine of the team.
But it is clear that Branthwaite brings qualities that the others can't match.
In his absence, Everton's pressing intensity has dropped slightly (see below).
They attempted to force mistakes high up the field against Southampton, but left a chasm of space between both boxes to be exploited. Keane and Tarkowski did not have the pace or inclination to consistently close the gap and when they did, it led to other problems.
Here's an example from Saturday's game.
Keane, circled, tracks midfielder Mateus Fernandes deep into Southampton's half...
But is bypassed and caught well ahead of the ball, leading to a chance for Cameron Archer.
Branthwaite's extra pace would reduce the chances of this happening.
There are cases for Tarkowski and Keane to keep their place alongside him. Tarkowski was his partner during Everton's solid defensive run last season; of the two, Keane is in the slightly better form.
But Everton can't afford to have a player they valued at around £70million over the summer kicking his heels on the sidelines any longer.
End McNeil experiment and move Ndiaye to the center
It was fun while it lasted. Dwight McNeil's move to a central role initially saw him become Everton's difference maker in the final third, and coincided with an improved run of results.
But we are now seeing the drawbacks of having him learn a new position on the job.
Everton remain clunky in attack. They are 17th for expected goals with a total of 10.8 across 10 matches. They are crossing less from open play, negating some of striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin's aerial ability. McNeil, meanwhile, is fourth among outfield players for lost possession this season, leading to more spells of opposition pressure.
Defensively, Everton are missing the presence of someone who can consistently win the ball high up or drop in as a third central midfielder like Abdoulaye Doucoure. The absence of Amadou Onana, the team's most athletic midfielder who was sold to Aston Villa over summer, harms them in transition.
The other big knock-on effect of having McNeil in the centre is that it limits Iliman Ndiaye's ability to influence games. Ndiaye has a terrific engine but is too often far from goal, tracking runners or on the periphery. His ability to score and beat players would arguably be best served behind the striker, the position from which he excelled at Sheffield United.
The Senegal forward was signed as a potential solution in the No 10 role but Dyche believes he is most effective across the board.
Everton's misfiring attack and late improvement at Southampton should at least offer their manager some pause for thought. With Jack Harrison on as a 10, McNeil started to threaten with crosses into the box, creating a golden chance for Harrison to score.
Making that permanent change would afford Ndiaye a go in his natural position.
More minutes for Beto
Cards on the table, I've always considered Calvert-Lewin to be a better fit than Beto in Dyche's system. More rounded, less chaotic and a more obvious foil in this direct style.
Perhaps he still is.
It is a tough role, with the ball often fired into him from deep and multiple defenders surrounding him, but Calvert-Lewin has struggled to influence games of late. It was told after Saturday's defeat that Dyche said the striker had "not done enough" before being substituted.
Beto, by contrast, has put his frustration over a lack of minutes to one side and is doing the exact opposite. Across his last two cameos, totalling just under 40 minutes, he has scored the equaliser against Fulham, hit the bar against Southampton, seen a superb goal chalked off for a marginal offside and forced Jan Bednarek to bring him down for what could have been a red card offence.
Beto, 26, still has rough edges and is learning how to earn Dyche's confidence and be a regular threat in the Premier League.
But with Calvert-Lewin's contract up at the end of the season and a deal yet to be agreed, others should get a chance to show what they can do.
Does Mykolenko need time out?
Full-back remains an area of concern for Everton. — the area of the pitch where they look least equipped to deal with what their Premier League rivals can throw at them.
It is telling that 39-year-old Ashley Young has been the pick of the bunch, recovering from a poor start to the season to turn into consistent displays of late.
But on the other side, left-back Vitalii Mykolenko is struggling.
The Ukraine left-back has gone from being in the top 32 per cent among his positional peers for dribblers tackled (62 per cent success rate), to the bottom 46 per cent in just a season (55 per cent success). A lack of pre-season action and persistent injuries cannot have helped, but the 25-year-old does not look the same player.
Mykolenko was heavily involved in Southampton's goal, obscuring Jordan Pickford's view of Armstrong's shot. He has struggled to keep pace with opposition attackers. Going forward, he has been largely ineffective.
There is no perfect solution for Everton right now. As a left-footer, Mykolenko's presence at least brings extra balance on that side of defence. That may also have to wait until January or, more likely, the summer, when they can bring in fresh options.
But with captain Seamus Coleman and Nathan Patterson fit again and waiting in the wings, the option is there for Young to switch flanks if Dyche sees fit.
Too much change is not always a good thing, but doing nothing risks more of the same from Everton.
