abc27 News weather team posts winter outlook
(WHTM)– El Nino seems to be the common theme for this year’s winter outlook. Just about every forecaster across the country is weighing winter outlooks based on the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures warming. Our weather team also believes El Nino will have a strong influence on the winter, but we can also provide some finer details for our official 2023-24 winter outlook for the viewing area.
For starters, a moderate El Nino can influence storm tracks across the U.S. In the image below, notice how much of the northern half of Pennsylvania experiences less snow during moderate El Nino winter, while far southeastern PA has a higher-than-average snowfall.
This is likely due to the active Pacific southern jet stream. The drought-stricken south is welcoming the active jet stream that will produce frequent storms along the southern US. Given the right atmospheric conditions, this jet stream can also produce Nor’Easters along the east coast. There is a greater probability that Nor’Easters will be developing this winter, but will they be close enough to bring heavy snow further inland?
You can see the winter outlook produced by NOAA also shows wetter than average conditions along the southern and southeastern US. Once again, a typical pattern produced by El Nino.
So here is our official winter outlook for December through February. Despite our chilly ending to November, we expect a milder December which may also reduce our chances of a white Christmas once again (the last white Christmas was 2012). There will be cold spells throughout the winter, but overall, a warmer than average winter. There is some potential for colder airmasses to spill south toward the end of winter (February into March). When it comes to snow, we are forecasting a near-average season with 25”-35” of snow. The wildcard will be the Nor’Easter tracks and whether we can tap into some big snowmakers this season. As always, it will be nail-biting close with some sleepless nights for our team!
