AFC North Whiparound: Division race, Black Friday bargains, Week 12 predictions
Each week during the regular season, our crew of AFC North writers will tackle the division’s biggest storylines, most important games, top players and other headlines in a roundtable format. Here we go with Week 12:
A lot has changed since we last gathered. Joe Burrow is done for the season , the Browns were able to fend off the Steelers’ voodoo — and force change — and the Ravens head into the holiday weekend with the AFC’s best record. In light of all that, how do we view this division right now? Is it a one-, two- or three-horse race? Will Baltimore eventually create separation, or will a difficult December schedule keep the door open?
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): I’ll say three. I’m not willing to dismiss anybody beyond the Jake Browning -led Bengals , and even they, I think, will win a few games down the stretch. The Ravens still haven’t shown they can handle prosperity. The second everyone starts anointing them as the best team in the league, they stub their toe. It’s just not in their DNA to do things the easy way . Their schedule, which still includes road games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and a desperate Los Angeles Chargers team, and home matchups versus the Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Steelers, might be the toughest remaining slate in the league. I don’t see them pulling away. The Steelers should get a jolt from the Matt Canada firing. They also don’t play a team with a winning record until New Year’s Eve, and I’m not sure the Seattle Seahawks will still have a winning record by that time. The Browns have won with their defense all year . They can do enough offensively to stay in this. To me, Baltimore has the most balanced team, but that doesn’t guarantee anything.
Zac Jackson ( Browns ): Based on how this has gone, it seems premature to shut the door on anybody. The eye test tells me the Ravens are the lead horse and the Browns aren’t out of it, and I’m inclined to trust my eyes. So I’ll say the Ravens probably end up winning the division, but I think we’ll be revisiting this discussion in some form for several more weeks — and I also think the Ravens’ schedule could end up bringing them back to the field. If my fourth grade basketball coach was right and defense really does win championships, then maybe the Browns can win a division title for the first time since I was in fourth grade.
Mark Kaboly ( Steelers ): One. The Ravens have the best record, the best quarterback and the best running game of the four. There are just too many issues for the other three teams, and those start at quarterback. How can you feel good moving forward this year with Dorian Thompson-Robinson , Kenny Pickett or Browning? The answer: you can’t. Now, I am a little skeptical about the Ravens running on empty after a brutal travel schedule and a rough set of games in front of them, but barring a complete collapse — and we’ve seen that before from a John Harbaugh-led team — Baltimore will have this division clinched Christmas night. The only questions are, can the Browns hold firm and can the Steelers cobble it back together to make a playoff run? Cincinnati is done, and you all know how much I love Zac Taylor and the Bengals. It pains me to write that.
Paul Dehner Jr. (Bengals): This division feels like a one-horse race. It would take a deluge of injuries or Lamar Jackson going down to change my mind, no matter how easy the Pittsburgh schedule appears or how formidable Cleveland’s defense is. Baltimore is the total package with the best quarterback by a country mile, and all the other talking points can be saved for filling hours of talk radio and scream-at-each-other TV.
Let’s go Black Friday shopping, or at least ride the theme. Which player on the team you cover is the biggest bargain? Is there a realistic gift out there that could push your team to still be playing a month past Christmas?
Zrebiec: Two things the Ravens do really well as an organization are find quality undrafted free agents and convince established veterans to sign with them on cheap deals. Their roster is littered with bargains. Getting Jadeveon Clowney on a one-year, $2.5 million contract is larceny. I know Browns fans are going to get hot and bothered in the comments section, but Clowney has played his butt off for the Ravens. He has 6.5 sacks and would be in double digits had he finished a few more plays after getting his hands on the quarterback. Seventy-three different edge rushers have a higher APY (average per year) than Clowney this season, and yet, he’s consistently been one of Baltimore’s better players. Getting safety Geno Stone , the AFC interceptions leader , on a one-year, $1.76 million deal qualifies as pretty good value as well. You never want to say a team is set, but the Ravens don’t have any significant holes that require an outside addition. Unless there is a starting-caliber tight end looking for work that I don’t know about, the Ravens’ best bet is to get the receivers, backs and tight ends they have more involved to help make up for the loss of Mark Andrews .
Jackson: Even at an average salary of $25 million per year, Myles Garrett is a bargain. He’s absolutely wrecking games, and he’s on his way to winning the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award . In the true spirit of the question, I’ll go to some guys who line up inside of Garrett. The Browns had the league’s worst defensive tackle group a year ago, but this year they got Maurice Hurst II and Shelby Harris for almost nothing. Those guys and a more expensive Dalvin Tomlinson are hard to block, and they’re doing a lot of dirty work for the league’s scariest defensive front. The Browns aren’t magically going to find a quarterback or two more receivers, so this defense is going to have to keep going the way it’s been going.
Kaboly: At least Steelers fans got their Christmas wishes answered earlier in the week when the team fired Canada . When I say the entire city rejoiced, the entire city rejoiced. With the Christmas shopping out of the way, let’s dive into some bargain-basement talent. And just like Canada, you don’t have to look far to find one. Running back Jaylen Warren spent time at a junior college, Utah State and Oklahoma State before going undrafted in 2022, and now he finds himself as one of the feel-good stories of the year. Warren is making the league minimum of $870,000 this season, but to make that number even worse, he’s been fined nearly $100,000 for “impermissible use of the helmet.” Warren is in the top 25 in rushing with 493 yards, despite playing only 46 percent of the snaps. Najee Harris , a 2021 first-round pick, has six more rushing yards on 48 more carries.
Dehner: The best bargain on the Bengals is Trey Hendrickson . When you consider his pressure rates, pass-rush win percentages, sacks and remarkable timeliness as a closer, he should be paid within the top tier of the league, which currently resides around $30 million per year. Even with the modest raise the Bengals gave him before the season, he’s at a $10 million bargain. That can buy a lot of Black Friday 65-inch TVs. And the only Christmas gift for the Bengals would be a revolutionary new procedure for healing wrist ligaments. We’ll see if Santa is stopping by Aaron Rodgers’ doctor’s house on the way to Cincinnati.
With the Steelers going way out of their usual path and firing Canada with seven games to go, it’s the right time for a status check around all four AFC North staffs. Is anyone coaching for their job the rest of the way? What’s the long-term health and security of the key figures guiding the team you cover?
Zrebiec: Well, after every loss, a portion of the Ravens’ fan base pipes up and calls for Harbaugh to be fired. It’s a yearly exercise. Does that count as being on the hot seat? Harbaugh isn’t in any jeopardy at the moment, nor should he be. Offensive and defensive coordinators Todd Monken and Mike Macdonald are being appropriately touted for the jobs they’re doing. The reality for Harbaugh, though, is that the playoffs will tell the story, assuming Baltimore gets there. The Ravens are getting closer to their 11th playoff berth in 16 seasons under Harbaugh. However, the team has just two postseason victories in the 10 years since last winning the Super Bowl. Would another early-round meltdown leave Harbaugh in jeopardy? Owner Steve Bisciotti, general manager Eric DeCosta and Harbaugh all have strong relationships, so probably not. But at some point, Bisciotti may have to decide whether just getting to the playoffs is good enough.
Jackson: The commitment the Browns made to Deshaun Watson 20 months ago is well on its way to being viewed as a complete disaster. But that really should have been interpreted as a commitment to the guys in charge, too. Watson is done for the year , but Kevin Stefanski keeps coaching his guys to wins . And though general manager Andrew Berry has had some misses, he’s also had a lot of hits. Stefanski probably deserves an extension and, in the realm of things, Berry should probably get one, too. Let’s see what happens in the stretch run. But Berry and Stefanski have already held their current jobs as long as any of their Browns predecessors in the last 15 years and probably deserve longer-term security. Frankly, it was time for the Browns to have a playoff season. Right now, it looks like they will.
Kaboly: There has been some speculation around town from people who aren’t in the know that Canada’s firing was a warning shot to Mike Tomlin. Give me a break. Tomlin isn’t going anywhere. The Steelers have been slowly getting healthy with the return of Cameron Heyward and Pat Freiermuth in recent weeks. Minkah Fitzpatrick will join them back on the field very soon, and that’s important. But the inside linebacker position won’t get better after losing Kwon Alexander and Cole Holcomb for the year. They are throwing everything at the wall to see if it sticks — Mykal Walker , Myles Jack , Blake Martinez . There’s a reason those three haven’t been on a 53-man roster this year until now.
Dehner: Letting Canada go was gasoline on the fire for 75 percent of fan bases that currently despise their play caller. The same is true in Cincinnati, as everyone copes with the loss of Burrow in their own way. The bottom line is the jobs being coached for the rest of the way are the promotion opportunities for defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher. They’ve always lived under the shadow of doubt that Burrow is the savior making everyone look like geniuses. A real run to the playoffs with Browning and company would go a long way to prove this staff plays a larger role than it’s credited for.
Two holiday weekend road trips and one Pickett-Browning barnburner. Will 13 points be enough to win in Cincinnati? Can the division go 3-1? Might things be really interesting at the top by early Monday morning? Give us your weekend picks.
Zrebiec: There’s no way the Bengals roll over for the Steelers, regardless of who’s at quarterback. I’ll take the over on 13 points and a Pittsburgh win, but I think that game is going to be close. Denver is a tough place to play, particularly for a rookie quarterback. But the Broncos don’t consistently do anything that scares opponents. The Browns and that defense do. Give me Cleveland, and give me the Ravens to take the game over late to beat the Chargers . This is pretty much a win-or-else scenario for the Chargers, and I think they’ll respond accordingly for a while. However, the Chargers seem to be their own worst enemy at the moment.
Jackson: I think the Browns’ run of late-game magic will end and they’ll lose a close one in Denver, 9-6. I think the Ravens will eventually win a wild one Sunday night, something like 26-24, with Justin Tucker hitting the winner from Orange County. In Cincinnati, I lean to the Steelers. I’d expect the coordinator change to give the offense a slight boost, and I think the visitors will hold to win, 16-13.
Kaboly: The Steelers and Bengals are going to surprise you. I can see a Browning versus Pickett shootout. Seriously, I have no idea how Pittsburgh might react to a new coordinator, but I can pretty much assume it isn’t going to light up the scoreboard anytime soon. I’ll take the Steelers, 13-12, but only because when it appears they’re dead and buried, they rise from the ashes and win. I am never again picking against the Ravens, regardless if they’re playing at Baltimore, Los Angeles or on the moon. So I’ll go 31-13. The Browns are interesting. I don’t believe in Thompson-Robinson, but I also don’t believe Russell Wilson has turned back into a good quarterback. The Browns could very well win this one, but the defensive splits away versus home are too drastic to ignore. Give me the Broncos, 28-21.
Dehner: First to 16 wins in Cincinnati, and the bottom line is Anarumo’s defense has been a bigger part of the problem than most realize over the last month. Pickett will find a few explosive plays and that will be enough against Browning making his first NFL start in a tough spot. Browns-Broncos suddenly has all kinds of intrigue, but I’m betting on the Cleveland defense to humble Wilson. And you know how Baltimore looks like a well-coached, complete team every week? They play the opposite of that on Sunday. The Ravens will beat the Chargers by 10.
(Photo: Kareem Elgazzar / The Enquirer / USA Today)
