All The Lions Do Is Cover Football Games: NFL Week 10 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning).
LW:
YTD:
New York Giants (2-7, 2-6-1 ATS) Carolina Panthers (2-7, 2-7 ATS)
NYG -5.5
T 41.5
I've watched enough Giants football to know this team should never be giving this many points. I don't care if they are playing the school of the blind. And the stats back that up. Teams that are as bad as the Giants this late in the season as favorites of more than 4 points are just 7-13-1 ATS.
The Stats Say:
San Francisco 49ers (4-4, 4-4 ATS) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5, 4-5 ATS)
SF -5.5
T 50.5
We've got a couple of bad trends for Todd Bowles and the Bucs here. Bowles is 0-5 ATS facing a team coming off a bye week, and he's covered just 2 of last 9 games playing on short rest. The Bucs just played on MNF and the 49ers just had a bye (and they're also probably getting Christian McCaffrey back).
The Stats Say:
Denver Broncos (5-4, 6-3 ATS) Kansas City Chiefs (8-0, 5-3 ATS)
KC -8
T 41.5
The Chiefs are incredible at winning football games. But they're not incredible at covering football games, especially in this spot. Patrick Mahomes has covered just 9 of his last 26 games as a favorite of more than a touchdown. The Chiefs will win I'm sure, but the Broncos can keep it close.
The Stats Say:
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 6-2 ATS) Washington Commanders (7-2, 7-1-1 ATS)
WAS -2.5
T 45.5
The Steelers have won every game coming off a bye since 2016. And Mike Tomlin is just always great getting points. You don't get rich betting against Mike Tomlin as a dog. He's 59-31-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.
The Stats Say:
Detroit Lions (7-1, 7-1 ATS) Houston Texans (6-3, 3-5-1 ATS)
DET -3.5
T 49
After another cover last week in Green Bay, the Lions have now covered 15 of their last 18 road games and they also have covered 8 straight primetime games.
The Stats Say:
If you missed this week's Advisors, catch up now.
