AOC ventures into the Hudson Valley to help a fellow Dem. Will it work?

New York Rep. Pat Ryan, a centrist Democrat who's locked in a tight race that could help determine whether his party retakes the House of Representatives, eagerly hugged someone many moderates wouldn't dare embrace.

It was Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a hero to many on the progressive left who was making her first stop in a tossup New York congressional district at a wooden boathouse alongside the Rondout Creek in Kingston last week.

Both Democrats stood to gain from the photo op — for very different reasons.

Ocasio-Cortez's rapid rise to national prominence — forged by her willingness to take on the Democratic establishment — has made her a key leader of the party's left flank, with a legion of highly engaged supporters. But she's long been an easy foil for Republicans, who believe her unapologetically progressive stances alienate moderates and independents — the very voters who may decide a race like Ryan's.

"That's gonna be in an ad somewhere, by the way," Ryan said of the quick side hug. "Just get ready for that."

Slowly but surely, that's started to change.

Ocasio-Cortez, who represents parts of the Bronx and Queens, landed a prime speaking role at the Democratic National Convention in August. Her speech garnered praise from some corners of the party establishment that once held her at arm's length. In recent weeks, she stumped for Kamala Harris' presidential campaign in two key swing states: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania . She also stopped in Texas for a rally ahead of the state's voter registration deadline.

This year, New York state is home to a handful of contested congressional races for key seats in the Hudson Valley, the Syracuse area and on Long Island, which helped propel the GOP to a slim House majority two years ago.

AOC's joint appearance with Ryan was, ostensibly, to highlight their shared commitment to keeping the Hudson River clean. They took a quick trip on a solar-powered boat to collect a water sample before holding a news conference to encourage people to submit comments to the Environmental Protection Agency about ongoing cleanup efforts .

But the larger point was clear: Ocasio-Cortez was putting her political muscle behind Ryan. Later that day, she posted a message to her 13.2 million followers on the social-media platform X.

"We're going to win this seat, re-elect [Ryan] to Congress, clean up the Hudson, and fight for clean water for every New Yorker," she wrote. "New York: the balance of Congress comes down to us."

Ryan, an Army veteran and former Ulster County executive, is facing a tight race with Esposito, a former NYPD officer making her second bid for public office after running for lieutenant governor two years ago. A recent poll from Emerson College showed Ryan up by five percentage points — a healthy but not insurmountable lead.

Ryan has spent much of his campaign painting himself as an independent-minded centrist. He supports progressive-favored issues like strong abortion rights and policies to combat climate change. Other stances have put him at odds with the left, such as his support for Israel in its expanding war in the Middle East. He has also touted his votes for boosting federal grants for law-enforcement agencies, something Ocasio-Cortez voted against.

Ryan pushed back against the idea that there was a political calculation to his appearance with Ocasio-Cortez, saying he invited her to his district because he "just respect(s) the hell out of" her. He pointed to his willingness to work with people across the political spectrum, including Republicans and those to his left, like Ocasio-Cortez.

"Alexandria said this perfectly," Ryan said. "It's like, actual leadership is leaning into and doing the work to find the commonality and then reminding the community we actually do share some pretty foundational things."

Ocasio-Cortez said she'd be "happy" to campaign in other New York swing districts.

Her appearance with a more moderate Democrat like Ryan "represents a new approach to our politics, which is a coalitional politics," Ocasio-Cortez said in Kingston.

"Not a triangulation politics where we have to run in one way or run in another and choose to be defined by one thing, but rather to say we are a diverse nation, we're a diverse community, and we can actually talk to everyone at the same time," she said.

But within hours of Ryan's appearance with Ocasio-Cortez on the campaign trail, Esposito and her supporters pounced.

At a rally that night in Poughkeepsie, Michael McCormack, the Dutchess County Republican chair, wasted little time invoking Ocasio-Cortez's name to rile up the Republican-heavy crowd of around 150 people. They gladly obliged his request to give Ocasio-Cortez a "big boo."

Former Rep. Lee Zeldin, the former Republican gubernatorial candidate who was Esposito's running mate in 2022, followed the same theme.

"The contrast couldn't be any starker," he said. "Alison Esposito is ready to go to Washington to stand up to the Squad. Her opponent's trying to be part of it."

Ryan, however, has clearly made the calculation that Ocasio-Cortez's support does more to help him than hurt him in New York's 19th District, which includes all of Orange County and parts of Dutchess and Ulster counties.

The current makeup of New York's 19th District — which has changed slightly for the coming election — had about 208,000 registered Democrats, 145,000 Republicans and 146,000 independents as of late last year, according to the state Board of Elections.

Different parts of the district have distinctly different political leanings, with Orange and Dutchess both electing Republican county executives. But Ulster County is deeply Democratic and home to Woodstock, Saugerties, New Paltz and other progressive-minded towns — areas where Ocasio-Cortez's brand of politics plays well, according to state Assemblymember Sarahana Shrestha, a Democratic Socialists of America member whose Ulster-based district overlaps with Ryan's.

"I find that people are underestimating how generally the public is open to progressive ideas and policies," Shrestha said. "Politicians are always underestimating the appetite for transformative change they want to see from their government."

For her part, Esposito said she believes most of the residents of the district are "not a fan of [Ocasio-Cortez] and her policies."

"She is a far-left progressive with New York City values, and you can't paint the entire state with the same broad brush," Esposito said.

Election Day is Nov. 5. Early voting begins Oct. 26.