Arne Slot has first-season advantage at Liverpool and their Premier League rivals are in disarray
When a musical artist releases a critically acclaimed, multi-million-selling first album, the achievement is often praised in the context of it being their first attempt.
That makes some degree of sense, but ultimately an artist's debut album is often their most celebrated. Generally, they've had a few years doing nothing other than dreaming about their first album, whereas their second has to be written under major time pressure, with huge expectations, often amid an exhausting world tour.
So, using the possibly unreliable barometer of the British Album of the Year award at the Brit Awards, 12 of the 25 winning albums this century have been an artist's debut. Five winners have been a second album, five a third album, only one (Adele) a fourth album, only one (Arctic Monkeys) a fifth album and one (David Bowie) a 26th and final album.
Granted, it makes sense for judging panels to honour exciting new artists rather than veterans who no longer care about awards. But it's far more unusual — and therefore maybe actually more impressive — to win the award with your fifth album rather than your debut.
Roughly the same thing applies to Premier League -winning managers. Eleven different managers have won the title since the division's formation in 1992. Five of them — Arsene Wenger, Jose Mourinho, Carlo Ancelotti, Manuel Pellegrini and Antonio Conte — all won it in their first Premier League season (or first full season, in Wenger's case). Claudio Ranieri won it in his first season with Leicester City , having been away from the league for a decade. Sir Alex Ferguson technically did it in his first full Premier League season, although he'd been in charge for five years beforehand in the old First Division.
Elsewhere, Pep Guardiola did it in his second season, Roberto Mancini in his second full season. Kenny Dalglish took three Premier League seasons with Blackburn Rovers , while Jurgen Klopp was actually highly unusual in taking four full seasons to win the title.
Of course, this measure ignores repeat successes for managers, but the point stands. If you take over a new club and have ambitions to win the Premier League, you're best off getting on with it quickly. A manager's best opportunity to succeed is often when they're new to English football — when they often bring 'outside' ideas, before their methods have been figured out by opponents, and before the squad has become weary of the same old training sessions week after week.
That's not, of course, to say that many expected Liverpool manager Arne Slot to be in this position: top of the league after 11 games, and title favourites according to the bookmakers and the analytics models. At the start of the season, they were distant third-favourites. When the BBC surveyed 30 of its pundits, each of the 30 went for Manchester City or Arsenal .
But now they're here, this might turn out to be Liverpool's best opportunity to win the title under Slot. For starters, the title fight appears weaker than for several years. After 11 matches, only two sides have 20 points or more. There were six teams on 20+ points at this stage last season, and five sides on 20+ points in the two seasons before that.
The underlying numbers suggest others will improve — Arsenal won't be so flat in possession with Martin Odegaard back in the side — but that doesn't change the fact that everyone other than Manchester City is at least nine points behind Liverpool, which is a hefty margin to overturn. And while Guardiola's side usually suffer an autumn wobble before becoming unstoppable in the spring, as Liverpool have been the victims of on a couple of occasions, the extended absence of Rodri will make a comeback tougher this time around.
More to the point, Liverpool are actually a very good side. Whereas they felt a little reserved in the opening weeks of the season in comparison to the Jurgen Klopp era, and suffered a surprise 1-0 home defeat by Nottingham Forest , they are increasingly winning matches comfortably and unfussily. The 2-0 win over Aston Villa , where they didn't produce spectacular football but created three big chances on the break and scored two of them, felt like the type of classic performance an early Ferguson, Wenger or Mourinho side would provide: scoring ruthlessly on the counter, and not overexerting themselves.
We're yet to see anything truly spectacular in the Premier League: Liverpool scored four or more goals seven times last season, something Slot's side haven't done yet (although they did stick four past Leverkusen last week.) But that could be seen as a positive; a reflection of the control and maturity Liverpool have played with.
When they went 3-0 up to Bournemouth before half-time, there was little sign of Liverpool turning it into a memorable thrashing, but also little sign of Bournemouth having any chances to get back in the game. In a season in which 2-0 has been a particularly dangerous scoreline, Liverpool haven't looked prone to anything of the sort. They are one of only two sides, along with Newcastle , not to have dropped points from a winning position.
Although yet to face second-placed Manchester City, they've already faced the four sides positioned between third and sixth in the table. And they've played well. On one hand, the underlying numbers suggest that Liverpool have been fortunate not to concede more goals. Both Alisson and Caoimhin Kelleher have made important stops this season. But those same numbers show that Liverpool have created better chances than their opponents in each match this season, with the very marginal exception of Arsenal away, when a draw was both a fair reflection of the balance of play, and a good result for Slot's side.
Liverpool boast a well-balanced starting XI offering great familiarity from previous campaigns, and this might be the best side, or squad, Slot has to choose from, however long he spends at Anfield. After all, there are questions about the future of Virgil van Dijk , Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah — three genuine world-class performers who will be difficult to replace, even if Liverpool have freshened up their squad in recent seasons.
Furthermore, Liverpool seem to be playing without pressure. Slot looks entirely comfortable with the task of replacing Klopp. The players are accustomed to a title challenge. Supporters seem encouraging rather than demanding.
Like many before him, Slot's debut season might turn out to be his biggest success.
(Top photo: ; design: Dan Goldfarb)
