Average Minnesota legislative seat swung two points to the right, data show

Maple leaves carpet the ground near the Capitol on Oct. 28, 2024. Photo by Michele Jokinen/Minnesota House Public Information Services.

The average Minnesota legislative district swung two points to the right in 2024, a sign of voter discontent with the status quo under the Democratic Farmer-Labor Party's trifecta in St. Paul.

While votes are not yet finalized, control of the House appears to be deadlocked in a 67-67 split , with several districts likely headed for an automatic recount over razor-thin margins.

Previous contests have often been a story of geographic sorting, with DFL gains in urban districts offsetting losses in greater Minnesota.

But in 2024 DFL margins shrunk almost everywhere, from the Twin Cities' urban core to the farthest reaches of the Arrowhead.

DFL candidate vote shares shrunk in 82 of the 112 House districts that had two major party candidates running in both 2022 and 2024. Some of the party's most significant losses occurred in must-win, open swing seats where DFL incumbents stepped down.

In Winona district 26A, for example, retiring Rep. Gene Pelowski won by a comfortable 10-point margin in 2022, his last legislative race. But in 2024 his endorsed successor, Sarah Kruger, came up 5 points short in her contest against first-time Republican candidate Aaron Repinski, for a margin shift of about 15 points overall.

A similar shift happened in Iron Range district 7B, where incumbent Rep. Dave Lislegard's retirement opened the door for Republican newcomer Cal Warwas to pull the district 15 points to the right, flipping the seat.

The DFL's biggest performance deficit relative to 2022, however, happened in Republican Rep. Mary Franson's safe Alexandria district, 12B. The 2024 DFL candidate, Judd Hoff, is a convicted felonstalking and harassment allegations from Franson. In August, Hoff was also criminally charged for stealing campaign signs.

Franson eventually won the 2024 race by 56 points, building on her 2022 margin by more than 16 percentage points overall.

The DFL's biggest gains, on the other hand, happened in deeply conservative districts where Republican incumbents retired. The DFL gains were not nearly enough to swing those races in their favor. They include districts 1B in the northwest and 19B around Owatonna, where DFL candidates ran up their numbers but still lost by more than 30 points.