Bears mailbag: Caleb Williams’ accuracy, Shane Waldron’s job security, Week 10 picks

The Chicago Bears are 1-1 this season in "must win for morale purposes" games. They rebounded from the early season swoon with a win over the Los Angeles Rams , then responded to a Hail Mary loss with a dud in Arizona.

Now comes must-win No. 3, and it's a doozy against the 2-7 New England Patriots .

Las Vegas oddsmakers aren't concerned about the team meetings and injured tackles and poor offense. The Bears are nearly touchdown favorites, the biggest spread in their favor in the Matt Eberflus era.

That might say more about the Patriots than the Bears. Or it's a reminder of how talented the Bears' roster is, something we've seen when they play bad teams.

It's hard to imagine the discourse if the Bears lose this one — at home, no less, where they haven't played in five weeks and haven't lost in over a year. But it's a gut check. They failed last week's test. If they fail again ahead of games against the Packers , Vikings and Lions ... watch out.

And now, on to your questions.

We've been told not to worry about Caleb Williams' long throw accuracy issues due to his strong body of college work. But he remains objectively "bad" in this area and is now refusing checkdowns and some short passes. What gives? Should we now worry? — Daniel T.

Short answer: No, but it is worth diving into the issues.

According to TruMedia, on throws that traveled at least 20 air yards, Williams is 9-for-39 (23.1 percent) for 297 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions. His passer rating on deep balls is 36.3, which ranks 34th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks, ahead of only Bryce Young . His EPA (expected points added) per pass is -0.49, ahead of only Jacoby Brissett .

So, the only quarterbacks who have been worse throwing the ball deep than Williams have been benched.

Accuracy was his calling card. We've seen it in practice and games. But in losses, it's been ugly. He's 6-for-29 on deep balls in losses. He also has completed 57.1 percent of passes overall in the Bears' four losses, a 10 percent drop from his accuracy in wins.

On Wednesday, Williams acknowledged he's frustrated because he has considered accuracy "the most important thing" since he became a quarterback.

"And I still pride myself on that, and so not being accurate, not being on time with things is frustrating because, like you said, it's kind of been my thing," he said. "Something I've been at least pretty solid at. And right now, I'm not as solid as I've been, not as solid as I pride myself on. ... I'm going to get there. But I think it starts with me."

Williams cited an incomplete deep ball to wide receiver DJ Moore down the left sideline as an example of a learning experience.

"I tried to throw him a perfect ball instead give your seven-year, six-year guy a shot at making a catch," he said.

When asked about the accuracy struggles, Williams first mentioned getting on the same page with his receivers, which has seemingly been an issue with Moore through eight games. Further detailed communication with his wideouts about routes and coverages will help, too, he said.

Eberflus said he wants Williams to be "cleaner" with his progressions as he scans the field. That will help with rhythm and timing.

In these games in which the Bears are trailing or Williams is under pressure often, he seems to rush things, which isn't unusual for a rookie quarterback. When he's comfortable in the pocket and in a rhythm, we see the accuracy. I do think we can still point to his success in college, and in the Bears' wins, as knowing he has the mechanics. He knows how to do it. But he needs to stay within himself, and get some help from coaches and receivers.

The Bears don't fire head coaches midseason. But what about coordinators? Any chance they let Shane Waldron go? — Alain V.

We saw the Raiders fire offensive coordinator Luke Getsy this week. It's not a bizarre thing for a team spiraling to make a coordinator change. It doesn't necessarily fix things in the short or long term. It's also not something the Bears do. Last year, defensive coordinator Alan Williams "resigned" but not for football reasons.

In 2000, then-offensive coordinator Gary Crowton left in December to take the head-coaching job at BYU — hat tip to Chicago Sun-Times scribe Mark Potash. That Bears offense averaged 13.5 points per game.

Firing a coordinator in-season would be almost as rare as doing it to a head coach, based on how things have gone around here. There's understandably a lot of consternation about the offensive coordinator. Waldron's offense is worse than last year's group even though it has better players. That's a problem. We've seen pre-snap penalties, quarterback and receiver not being on the same page and confounding target numbers.

While there are options on staff to take over play calling (Thomas Brown, Chris Beatty), I'm not sure Eberflus would take that perceived route of desperation, even if it might provide "accountability" some fans want. If he actually believes it'd spark the offense, he shouldn't ignore it, but it doesn't seem like they're there — yet.

It'd be hard to see it as a self-preservation move. If the offense is so bad that the play caller has to be fired in-season, what would that mean for the head coach who chose him? But we can't rule anything out if the offense continues to sputter.

What do you think are the realistic chances the Bears can grab a premium head-coaching candidate (Mike Vrabel, Ben Johnson, etc.) if/when they fire Eberflus? As much as I think this coaching staff isn't it, the franchise does not have a reputation as being a desirable landing spot. — John H.

This team did attract John Fox in 2015, which, at the time, was a big deal, and the roster was much worse than it is now.

While some coaches might have trepidation about the endless cycle the Bears have found themselves in since firing Lovie Smith, it's still the Chicago Bears, a charter franchise, one that has its quarterback and a pretty solid nucleus of players. If the head-coaching position becomes available, I still think it is an attractive one.

Any thoughts about the relative contribution to team structure over the last three years by Ian Cunningham vs. Ryan Poles? Seems like a worthwhile thing to consider with all the talk of potential leadership changes. I've admired what Ryan Poles has done since coming to the Bears with the puzzling exception of offensive linemen, considering that would seem to be where his evaluations should excel. — Scott L.

The Bears have put themselves in position for these questions. Poles constructed a roster that isn't playing at a high level. He hired a head coach who isn't making the best decisions. Criticism for these back-to-back losses can go all the way through the building.

To focus on the offensive line, the primary goal last offseason was improving its depth. Poles did succeed in improving that. Nate Davis hasn't played at the level the team hoped for, and they plugged in Matt Pryor , who has done a nice job. Braxton Jones got hurt, and they had a third-round rookie ready in Kiran Amegadjie. Ryan Bates , whom they traded for, got hurt and they had Coleman Shelton , who's played better at center over the past month.

Quibbling is fair — maybe the goal should've been adding high-level starters. Pryor came in on a minimum contract as opposed to going out and finding a bona fide starter to replace Davis. Amegadjie was a third-rounder, but out of Yale and who came into the building with an injury. He didn't practice until the preseason was over. Bates and Shelton are improvements over what the Bears had last year, but neither was a big splash.

A lot of the frustration goes to two things — Davis not living up to his contract and injuries. Davis signed a three-year, $30 million contract in 2023. That was a big move to land a starting guard. It didn't work out, but it's not as if Poles didn't try. He traded a pick for Bates, having coveted the former Bill for a couple of offseasons, and then Bates got hurt. Jones got hurt. Jenkins has been banged up. And now right tackle Darnell Wright is questionable for Sunday.

Poles did accomplish his goal by putting the Bears in a better position if guys went down. Pryor is a prime example of that. But should there have been a talent upgrade elsewhere? The only real options would've been replacing Jones at left tackle or finding a better center option than Bates or Shelton. Jones was playing well before he got hurt, and I don't know if this team was a better center away from being in a different spot.

Injuries have been a big issue, but the offensive line is also going to be top of the priority list this offseason.

Bears-Patriots fun facts

• The Patriots lead the all-time series 10-5, including a 6-3 record at Soldier Field.

• The Bears have lost three home games in a row to New England — 2018, 2010 and 2002. Their last win at home against the Patriots came in 2000. It was the best game of Shane Matthews' career (22-for-27 passing with two touchdowns).

• The Bears and Patriots last met in 2022, a Monday night game in Foxboro. The Bears won 33-14.

• The Patriots are 8-2 in the series since Super Bowl XX.

• Drake Maye will be the third rookie QB to start against Eberflus' Bears and the fifth rookie to get extensive playing time. First-year quarterbacks are 1-3 against Chicago since 2022 after Jayden Daniels' win in Week 8.

• The Bears have won nine home games in a row (eight at Soldier Field) dating to Week 6 of last season.

Game picks: Bears (-6.5) vs. Patriots, noon CT on Fox

Kevin Fishbain: Bears 11, Patriots 9

(7-1 straight up, 3-5 against the spread)

I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears go out there and, after their weekly slow start, just overpower the Patriots and win by multiple scores. But recency bias makes it impossible for me to project that. Instead, let's have a game that honors the early days of football.

Adam Jahns: Bears 24, Patriots 16

(5-3, 5-3)

Is this the last time we're all picking the Bears this season? The Bears should win. But we've said that a few times this year.

Dan Pompei: Bears 19, Patriots 16

(4-4, 2-6)

The Bears have been self-destructing of late, finding ways to lose. But if there is one thing they have shown they can do this year, it's beat a bad team. The Patriots have been a bad team.

Jon Greenberg: Bears 27, Patriots 13

(4-4, 4-4)

The spread would be at least 7 1/2 if not for the Bears' recent incompetence. I'm actually being a little conservative with this prediction as I don't think the Bears will have an issue Sunday. They can beat up the bad teams, it's the good teams they should worry about.

Chad Graff (Patriots beat writer): Bears 20, Patriots 17

The guess here is it's going to be ugly — which probably isn't a shock. The Patriots are a bad football team with maybe the worst roster in the NFL . Thankfully for them, Drake Maye looks good. But outside of him, there's not much worth watching from this team. So if you're a Bears fan, take solace that the Patriots have been a get-right game for basically everyone except the Jets .

(Top photo: Christian Petersen / )