Pennlive
Big Ten Performance Poll: Which B1G coaches got the most (and least) out of their teams in 2023 | Jones
S.Brown3 months ago
With the premise of the B1G Power Poll pretty much cooked at regular season’s end, I thought I’d go a different route before we get to conference championship week. This is an appraisal of all 14 programs, their coaching staffs and athletic administrations, relative partly to potential and partly to realistic expectations. Who got the most out of what, the biggest bang for the buck? For lack of a better name, let’s call it the Big Ten Performance Poll. Here they are one last time, bottom to top: Many surmised when Mel Tucker was lured from Colorado after a single season in Boulder and paid a king’s ransom to come to East Lansing, it felt like not just a reach but reckless. Cracks began to form in the façade last season with the Michigan tunnel fiasco. And now, Tucker’s been fired amid a sexual harassment law suit. A program with wherewithal that always had prospects under previously resigned Mark Dantonio is in total disarray. I love Jonathan Smith as a coach but feel like he’s just making the move to MSU for a huge paycheck upgrade (who wouldn’t?) while evacuating an untenable situation at his alma mater Oregon State. The Beavers appear headed for demotion to the G5 Mountain West, so Smith has a chance to stay in a power conference. That doesn’t mean the career Westerner belongs at MSU. This feels like Gary Andersen at Wisconsin or Mike Riley at Nebraska – not a cultural fit. Anyway, that’s next season, this list is about this season. Even by the Hoosiers’ modest standards, 2023 was a disaster as the Hoosiers got consistently planted by big margins until it didn’t matter anymore, then a group of IU donors who apparently gave a damn ponied up enough to facilitate Tom Allen’s $20.8 million buyout. I didn’t think anyone cared that much about Indiana football, frankly. All credit to Allen for as long as he could pull off the magic trick of keeping IU football competitive. But once he lost OC Kalen DeBoer to Washington and QB Michael Penix followed him, Allen was out of contingencies. The best Indiana can hope as a replacement is an ascending young assistant with no head coaching experience but tactical acumen, somebody like Ohio State OL coach and IU grad Justin Frye. He was previously UCLA’s OC under Chip Kelly. More was expected of Luke Fickell. He was the red-letter hire of last December’s coaching musical chairs session, arriving from Cincinnati where he’d been a miracle-worker in six seasons. Embarrassing losses to Washington State, Indiana and Northwestern took care of the honeymoon period. To be fair, the Badgers suffered an inordinate share of injuries. But the 15-6 no-show at home against eventual West survivor Iowa in week 7 set the course for what remained. Like any other new coach, Fickell will need time to implement his plan. Recall, he espoused grand designs to revamp UW’s traditional station-to-station offense into some version of the Air Raid. That vision was scuttled early when SMU-transfer QB Tanner Mordecai was dinged up and never really got comfortable. The nadir arrived when star safety Hunter Wohler called out the entire team in postgame comments after a 24-10 home loss two weeks ago to Northwestern, basically saying nobody cared enough to play hard. That’s sort of a red flag for Fickell. Better be better next year. I know a couple of prominent Big Ten observers, one who works as a BTN studio analyst, who very soberly chose Illinois in August as their 2023 West champion. The rationale was that Bret Bielema had the tough stuff figured out at scrimmage and would manage to figure out the vacancies at the skill positions – especially QB Tommy DeVito (now ripping it up in the NFL) and his decimated secondary (two NFL DBs in Devon Weatherspoon and Sydney Brown). Well, he never figured out any of it. The Illini moved the ball well enough. But they were vulnerable to enemy air attacks and couldn’t protect QB Luke Altmyer. And they were sloppy on top of it. Illinois ranked #111 nationally in sack % allowed (9.01) and #120 in turnover margin (-0.7) as well as #116 in penalty yardage (62.4) out of 130 FBS schools. That’s some ragged football. And Big Biels’ boys paid for it all year, most notably in inexcusably noncompetitive midseason losses and Nebraska. It wasn’t misfortune, either. Illinois’ 5 victories were all by once score; they were lucky to win that many, thanks in part to backup 6th-year transfer QB John Paddock. Bielema has the potential here to build something lasting; he fits at Illinois. But he still has work to do on his foundation. P.J. Fleck mighta-shoulda fled ahead of the posse in Minneapolis. I can’t believe he didn’t have an option or two after that breakthrough 2019 season (11-2 and the landmark win over 9-0 Penn State). This is a tough job with no recruiting base and lukewarm civic interest. It was probably advisable to get outa Dodge while the gittin’ was good for someplace with a better support system. And despite the fact that his Gophers scooped up a bowl at 5-7 due to one too few eligible teams to fill the 84 slots, 2023 still fell well short of expectations. Beginning with the 37-34 gag job at Northwestern, Minnesota underperformed. Fleck needs a feature running back to force-feed the rock or he’s lost. When RBs Darius Taylor and Sean Tyler were hurt, the Gophers were inert offensively depending upon QB Athan Kaliakmanis and lost their last four. The one high point: Thanks to a questionable official’s call, they were the only team other than Penn State to take down Iowa. Fleck will certainly have a grace period to reassemble what he built and reapproached in 2021 and 2022 (both 9-4). But 2023 was two steps back. It was Matt Rhule’s first year, so he gets a pass. But Nebraska fans are not happy with him, specifically because they expected a little more than what they’d been getting the past 5 years from Scott Frost, and they were served up a lot of the same frustrations. Most maddening, they were teased with the prospect of a West division title when the Cornhuskers buzzed through Illinois, Northwestern and Purdue to reach 5-3 (3-2 B1G) with reeling Michigan State and Maryland upcoming. Then, the Huskers relapsed back into the sloppy turnover-prone outfit that got Frost canned. They pissed away 4 consecutive one-score losses in November and finished the program’s 7th straight season without a bowl. They did it by consistently giving away the ball at an astounding rate (-1.4 turnover margin), the second-worst in FBS (Temple was -1.7). Part of Rhule’s miscalculation was in choosing his starting quarterback. Georgia Tech-transfer Jeff Sims didn’t throw much with the Yellow Jackets and when asked to early this season, he was a disaster. So, on came Heinrich Haarberg, essentially a running back who took snaps. That worked for about a month until Chubba Purdy resolved a nagging groin injury (Nathan Jessup voice: “Is there another ”). Brock’s little brother looks like he might be the answer at QB – though he threw a pick in each of the last 3 games. Oy. Not a lot to be either ecstatic or angry about for Boilermaker fans. Ryan Walters’ first team since arriving from Illinois (where he was the DC) was predicted to finish at or near the bottom of the West, and did marginally better than expected (4-8, 3-6 B1G). There were a few pleasing highlights – a road win Tech, routs of Illinois and Minnesota where Texas-tarnsfer QB Hudson Card heated up, a finishing seizure of the Old Oaken Bucket that got the rival coach fired at Indiana. But it’s now about trying to keep head above water in a division-less B1G with tougher competition. The Boilers face Notre Dame, State, Oregon, State and Penn State next year. No more living off West pig slop. So, in his first full off-season, Walters must embrace his specialty, recruit his butt off and build a defense that can be a backbone of his program. His team allowed 30+ in two-thirds of its 2023 games. That won’t do next year. I’m going to shock you with a statistic. You’ll probably doubt it, then check it, then redoubt, then recheck. Then you’ll most likely stare straight ahead and wonder whether it’s relevant: Penn State went 9-3 against the spread in 2023, tops in the B1G, tied with Miami (OH) for #5 in the nation. Among the P5, only Arizona (10-2) and Oregon (9-2-1) were better. That makes PSU 60-37-3 (.615) ATS over the past 8 seasons, which is #1 in the nation among full FBS members over that period, just ahead of Kansas State 60-38-0 (.612) and Oklahoma State 60-39-3 (.603). If you believe public perceptions that essentially set betting lines are indicative of actual strength, then that means James Franklin’s teams are consistently punching above their weight. Hey, another 10-2 season with 9 of those wins being decisive is nothing at which to scoff. But here’s the thing: Franklin had a defense capable of not just winning the East division but making a run at the national championship. If only he could have constructed an offense that was functional against prime rivals Ohio State and Michigan. He didn’t and those games weren’t as close as the 20-12 and 24-15 final scores. Defenses like Manny Diaz’s 2023 crew do not come around very often. So, that’s a big fat failure. And in my final analysis, that’s why PSU is smack in the middle of the performance pack. It says all you need to know about Buckeye fans that they want Ryan Day’s head on a platter now after an 11-1 season, a single 6-point road loss, and still an outside shot at a College Football Playoff bid. If you lose to Michigan three years in a row, you are an endangered species in Columbus, regardless of any other results. Everything becomes magnified in the immediate moment at this place. It can be difficult for any coach to realize what’s needed is a dolly-back and wide view of the big picture. That’s the gift of great coaches at such a moment as Day is enduring now. More specifically, Day’s choice of Kyle McCord as the OSU quarterback is being questioned because his 2 interceptions in the 30-24 loss at Michigan were the decisive giveaways. McCord did make a couple of questionable throws, most notably his first pick, then an underthrow to Cade Stover that could’ve been a TD. But he also drove the Buckeyes back into the game with several nice deliveries in the middle quarters. McCord is also being harassed by ex-Buckeye players for allegedly having a blasé attitude about the Michigan game, a comment taken out of context by social media. Day needs to eat the scorn and stick up for McCord. His QB was resilient and ready to win the game with :30 left on a deep ball to Marvin Harrison – had he not been hit as he threw. McCord is not his problem; a still cushy defense at crunch time is. The OSU resistance could not stop Michigan from running out 7 of the final 8 minutes ending in a field goal. If the Buckeye front and DC Jim Knowles doesn’t solve that issue, Day’s days are numbered at Ohio State. As an old coach I used to know loved to start his sentences when he wanted to remind folks he predicted an outcome with prescience: “I tried to tell some people... " And here we are looking at the goofy Scarlet Knights as a competitive and troublesome Big Ten football program in the second coming of Greg Schiano. Just as I’ve kept telling all my smirking Midwestern friends since he resurfaced in Piscataway four years ago. Look, is anyone picking Rutgers to knock off any of the big boys yet? No. Not until Schiano fixes his issue at quarterback where single-threat Gavin Wimsatt has turned the run-pass option into an urgent demand – That said, if Schiano had even a workmanlike QB this year, he’d have been in business against Ohio State, to whom the Knights eventually lost 35-16 after keeping it a one-score game in the 4th quarter. Rutgers was 6-2 (3-2 B1G) before that match, but eventually wore down in a brutal November and followed), dropping 4 straight. But this was a tough team all year that continues to improve where it matters most – at scrimmage. Schiano now needs to find a QB like his old stable manager on his first go-round (anybody remember Mike Teel?). If Iowa can win 10 games with its system, so can Rutgers. This might be an overrating. But even though Mike Locklsey still hasn’t beaten one of the big boys (discarding the 2020 COVID win at Penn State), I have to give him credit for elevating the Terrapins incrementally every year to the point that they are now competitive against anybody. A compelling argument could be made that, despite the Terps’ 51-15 home destruction by Penn State, they made better efforts against both Ohio State and Michigan than PSU did – down just one score and in the game in the 4th quarter against each. Moreover, UMD has made significant strides up front on defense under DC Brian Williams. His crew contained both Michigan (150 rush yds, 3.3 ypc) and Ohio State (62 rush yds, 1.9 ypc) on the ground and gave the team a chance to win both contests. Still, Maryland remains the most maddeningly knuckleheaded team in the league when it comes to quarterback play. Taulia Tagovailoa is being lauded by those who don’t pay rapt attention to the Big Ten because on Saturday he passed Purdue’s Curtis Painter to become the all-time career passing yardage leader in B1G history (11,193 yards). Which doesn’t account for all the awful throws he made in this, his 4th season. Yes, he can make the wow throw. But Locksley never effectively taught him how to avoid the huge mistake while trying to create another highlight. Locks’ next assignment is to find someone who can make the pro throws but also manage a game like one. How do you even rank the coaching job Kirk Ferentz did this season? On one hand, his team went 10-2 (7-2 B1G) and won the West by two games. His faithful DC Phil Parker again assembled a defense that endured whatever hardship was thrown at it and just kept putting up ridiculous numbers. Iowa’s yards per play was 3.9 for the , bettered only by Penn State (3.7) in the entire nation. And yet, Ferentz was solely responsible for the national joke that his offense became – because he insisted on keeping his unqualified son as the OC – until it caused such turmoil among the fan base that stepped in midseason and terminated Brian Ferentz effective at season’s end. Further, Iowa played a schedule full of canned hams in the worst B1G in over a decade. The Hawkeyes avoided having to play the only two really good teams in league (Ohio State and Michigan), and got destroyed by only other good one (31-0 State). So, is it a resilient team that overcame its shortcomings and did what was necessary to win? Or was it a fortunate one that never had to face a reckoning other than one road date and, so, skirted exposure? We will see more conclusively on Saturday in Indianapolis when Michigan and a tanned, rested, and ready Jim Harbaugh meet the Hawks with a CFP spot on the line. Speaking of whom, how can you measure coaching job? I suppose it helps to keep your moral compass in the night table drawer. One could choose the cynical viewpoint that revenue college athletics is so rife with cheating that parsing Michigan’s particular instance is tantamount to pearl-clutching. On the other hand, if you believe Michigan built its current status by enjoying a significant competitive advantage based on Connor Stalions’ in-person spy program, well, who can argue? I lean toward the former position. It’s like this: At current, over the past month, no program has been more roundly despised among its brethren than Jim Harbaugh’s evil empire. They are Harry Potter’s reincarnate. And still, nobody can knock them off. You’d assume both Penn State and Ohio State took considerable measures to switch their play signs, so that’s not how the Wolverines beat Penn State by 9 and Ohio State by 6. Virtually every soul in the nation beyond the borders of Mittenland wanted Michigan defeated. And a pair of top-10 rivals couldn’t do it. So, much as you might hate ol’ Sharkface, gotta give him his due. Not only did he build this monster, his first lieutenant took over when he was suspended and ran it quite competently in his absence. Michigan is the villain every sport needs. I say, be glad we have them. Those of differing opinions can argue for hours the justice of Pat Fitzgerald’s dismissal in July amid cringeworthy revelations of hazing by several team members. And the fact is, the university administration would’ve done as little as possible were it not for an investigation by the school’s student newspaper. What isn’t really debatable: Fitz had reached his sell-by date as NU head coach. His program had sunk back to its previous equilibrium as a league bottom-feeder, a station the 17-year institution in Evanston had elevated for years beyond where it probably should have lain. Still, anyplace else, he’d have been fired for three 1-8 conference seasons out of four. Into this cauldron was thrown David Braun, a 38-year-old career FCS assistant with no FBS or head coaching experience of any kind. From the get-go of his earnest performance at the B1G Media Days dais mere days after his assignment as interim coach, Braun projected leadership. Despite his team’s league-low Vegas-projected preseason win total of 3.5, Braun generated belief in his outmanned Wildcats.they went out and played their asses off all damn season. Beginning with a hopeless 24-7 loss at Rutgers in which the Cats only scored with :20 to play, they kept improving incrementally until they began beating opponents they had no business beating. Northwestern doubled that projection, went a jaw-dropping 7-5 and 5-4, finished 2nd in the West and came within a last-minute loss to Iowa of winning the division. The Cats went 8-4 against the spread, frequently winning outright as dogs. And so, NU did the right thing two weeks ago, removed the interim tag from Braun and signed him to a long-term deal. I don’t know if he’s the ultimate answer at a place that has never taken football that seriously. I just know he earned the right to find out. No B1G side reached closer to its ceiling in 2023 than his Cats.More PennLive sports coverage:• Sunday Morning Quarterback: Three postgame reads from Michigan’s 30-24 win over Ohio State .• Its dominant season capped by shutout of MSU, this Penn State defense will always be tagged: “What if?” • For better and worse, Bob Knight’s era has long since passed, and now so has he .• Oklahoma, Florida instead of Delaware, UMass on PSU schedule? A superleague could do that .
Read the full article:https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/2023/11/big-ten-performance-poll-which-coaches-got-the-most-and-least-out-of-their-teams-in-2023-jones.html
0 Comments
0