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Bleacher Report's Expert Week 7 NFL Picks
M.Cooper35 min ago
- Perry Knotts/ Bleacher Report's NFL experts are on a hot streak with three consecutive winning weeks. Our crew isn't complacent, though. They're out for more green in Week 7. B/R's NFL panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O'Donnell, Ian Hanford and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting Strategy, come into this week with an aura of confidence, but they're not letting their guard down. They sided with a few underdogs and banded together for three unanimous slam-dunk picks. Before we break down our Week 7 picks against the spread, check out the leaderboard with last week's records in parentheses. Start tailing now as the group gains midseason steam.ATS Standings T-4. Gagnon 44-44-4 (10-4) T-4. Michelino: 44-44-4 (8-6) T-6. Hanford: 43-45-4 (8-6) T-6. Sobleski: 43-45-4 (8-6)Consensus picks:
- Brooke Sutton/DraftKings Line: Denver -2.5 The New Orleans Saints will play their third game in 10 days on Thursday. Their top two wide receivers, Chris Olave (concussion protocol) and Rashid Shaheed (knee), will miss this game, while rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler will make his second career start in place of Derek Carr (oblique). Our crew favors the Broncos in this spot even though they won't have star cornerback Patrick Surtain II (concussion protocol). Davenport considered the Saints, but their injury report scared him away. "Under even slightly different circumstances, the Saints as a home underdog would be tempting, Rattler be damned. The Denver offense is improving but inconsistent, and the Broncos will likely be short their best defensive player in Surtain. "But the Saints are a mess right now. Rattler will be down his top two receivers, leaving Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Mark the Parking Lot Attendant as his best options against a Denver defense that's allowing fewer than 285 yards of offense per game. "If Rattler figures out a way to win this game, hello quarterback controversy." Davenport: Broncos Gagnon: Broncos Hanford: Broncos Knox: Broncos Michelino: Broncos Moton: Broncos O'Donnell: Broncos Sobleski: BroncosATS Consensus: Broncos -2.5Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Saints 13
- Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via DK Line: Jacksonville -5.5 The Jacksonville Jaguars will play back-to-back games in the United Kingdom, so they're settled in their surroundings. The Jaguars also get another rookie quarterback in Drake Maye, who will make his second career start. Last week, Maye made plays with his arm and his legs. As expected, he had missteps as well, which is part of the learning process in the NFL. Despite Maye's inexperience, most of our experts sided with the Patriots to cover the spread, though Moton can see the Jaguars playing inspired football after a lackluster showing last week. "The Jaguars may be playing to keep head coach Doug Pederson employed for another week. Safety Andre Cisco said he saw a lot of quit in the team in a loss to the Chicago Bears last week, which spells trouble for the leadership core in Jacksonville. "The Jaguars have the advantage of staying in London, going against a team led by first-time head coach in Jerod Mayo. The Patriots defense hit a low point in Mayo's short tenure against the Houston Texans last week, which drew his ire . They also turned the ball over four times with Maye at the helm. "In full desperation mode, the Jaguars put together their best game of the season in a matchup with a highly flawed Patriots squad." Davenport: Patriots Gagnon: Patriots Hanford: Jaguars Knox: Patriots Michelino: Patriots Moton: Jaguars O'Donnell: Jaguars Sobleski: PatriotsATS Consensus: Patriots +5.5Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Patriots 21
- Ron Jenkins/DK Line: Minnesota-2.5 The Minnesota Vikings have covered the spread in all five of their games, while the Detroit Lions have covered in their last four contests. That makes it tough to rely on ATS trends in this spot. Also, the Lions defense will have to adjust to life without edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a season-ending leg injury last week. On Tuesday, the Vikings acquired running back Cam Akers from the Houston Texans. Since he's already familiar with head coach and play-caller Kevin O'Connell's offense, he may see action immediately if Aaron Jones (hip) doesn't suit up. Most of our panelists expect the Lions to win a scoring shootout. Hanford thinks Detroit will rise to the occasion in a marquee matchup. "The Hutchinson injury is devastating for the Lions. I'd argue he's the most important non-QB on any contender, and Dan Campbell recently called him the team's heartbeat. His loss will be felt as the season goes on, depending on any moves Detroit makes to help the pass rush, but I expect it to galvanize the Lions in this huge NFC North showdown. "Neither one of these teams can stop the pass. This one feels like a shootout, and the Lions offense is humming right now. Detroit covers the spread for the fourth straight time against the Vikings on Sunday," Davenport: Lions Gagnon: Lions Hanford: Lions Knox: Lions Michelino: Lions Moton: Vikings O'Donnell: Lions Sobleski: VikingsATS Consensus: Lions +2.5Score Prediction: Lions 30, Vikings 28
- Luke Hales/DK Line: Buffalo -8.5 The Buffalo Bills didn't get complacent after their Week 6 win over the New York Jets. On Tuesday, they acquired Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns. Though large spreads may scare bettors off, the Bills face a Tennessee Titans squad that's averaging only 19.2 points per game. The Titans are tied for third in giveaways, and they turned the ball over at least once in each of their games. The Bills will have a chance to capitalize on extra possessions. O'Donnell isn't afraid of the large spread considering how poorly the Titans have played and their ball-security issues through six weeks. "We're at that point in the season when big spreads aren't nearly as frightening. The season's bonkers start, which saw touchdown-plus favorites not just fail to cover but lose outright, is fading away. The Bills haven't looked great in their last three games—they went 1-2 and averaged only 17.6 points per game away from home—but they still lead the AFC in point differential and are very much a legitimate contender. "Josh Allen still hasn't thrown an interception. Ray Davis looks the part of the perfect Bills running back if James Cook isn't completely healthy. And now the mistake-prone, Will Levis-led Titans are in town. Two teams at the opposite end of the turnover spectrum, with the Bills back in Buffalo for the first time in nearly a month, I'll lay double digits on the better team in this game." Davenport: Bills Gagnon: Bills Hanford: Bills Knox: Titans Michelino: Bills Moton: Bills O'Donnell: Bills Sobleski: BillsATS Consensus: Bills -8.5Score Prediction: Bills 24, Titans 14
- Patrick McDermott/DK Line: Green Bay-2.5 The Houston Texans lost star wide receiver Nico Collins in the first quarter of their Week 5 matchup with the Buffalo Bills, but they still managed to score a season-high 41 points against the New England Patriots last week. Running backs Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce ran for a combined 178 yards and two touchdowns. The Texans will face a different class of opponent on Sunday, though. The Green Bay Packers boast the NFL's eighth-ranked run defense, and they lead the league in takeaways (17). The Packers also have a top-10 passing and rushing attack to keep pace with the Texans on the scoreboard. Gagnon saved the fancy statistics. He believes the Texans are due for a close loss to a comparable opponent. "Prior to an easy victory in New England, the Texans were 4-1 despite a negative scoring margin on the season. They've won six straight one-score games. I believe in this team, but nobody is blowing out these Packers right now, and I think the Texans are due to lose a close game for once." Davenport: Texans Gagnon: Packers Hanford: Texans Knox: Texans Michelino: Packers Moton: Packers O'Donnell: Packers Sobleski: TexansATS Consensus:Score Prediction: Packers 26, Texans 23
- Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via DK Line: Atlanta -2.5 The Seattle Seahawks have literally given up a lot of ground in three consecutive losses, allowing 173 rushing yards per game since Week 4, which has allowed their opponents to control the tempo of games. Last week, the Atlanta Falcons had their most productive outing on the ground, rushing for 198 yards and three touchdowns. Our experts can sense an advantageous matchup for the Falcons. Knox confidently sided with Atlanta by a field goal. "I'm not ready to buy into the Falcons hype just yet. What I can buy into is Zac Robinson's vision for using both Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson in the running game. It might not be the best situation for fantasy managers, but the two-back rotation is working for Atlanta—and it could be a big problem for the traveling Seahawks. "Seattle has allowed five yards per carry this season and has struggled to keep pace with teams that can run efficiently. If Atlanta doesn't win by at least a field goal, something has gone awry." Davenport: Falcons Gagnon: Falcons Hanford: Falcons Knox: Falcons Michelino: Falcons Moton: Falcons O'Donnell: Falcons Sobleski: FalconsATS Consensus: Falcons -2.5Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Seahawks 23
- Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via DK Line: Indianapolis -3.5 The Indianapolis Colts may be the NFL's most mediocre team. They have a point differential of zero along with middling ranks in offensive and defensive scoring. Barring a change of plans, Indianapolis will start second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson (oblique) over veteran Joe Flacco, who threw for 548 yards, five touchdowns and an interception over the past two weeks in his place. The Colts may see a much-improved Miami Dolphins offense compared to the previous weeks. Dolphins quarterback Tyler Huntley worked on building a stronger rapport with his playmakers and grasping Mike McDaniel's offensive system. Nonetheless, most of our panel believe that the Dolphins' ground attack has a major advantage over the Colts' 31st-ranked run defense. Sobleski sided with the Dolphins and expects Miami to dominate Indianapolis on the ground. "The movable object meets the resistible force when the Colts host the Dolphins this week," Sobleski said. "The Colts have had one of the league's worst defenses all season, while the Dolphins continue to move forward without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa behind center. "However, the matchups still favor Miami, especially with Mike McDaniel's squad having two weeks to prepare for this contest. Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright should find lanes against the league's 31st-ranked run defense, while McDaniel can manufacture touches for wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle against arguably the league's least talented secondary." Davenport: Dolphins Gagnon: Dolphins Hanford: Dolphins Knox: Dolphins Michelino: Dolphins Moton: Dolphins O'Donnell: Colts Sobleski: DolphinsATS Consensus: Dolphins +3.5Score Prediction: Dolphins 23, Colts 20
- Kevin Sabitus/DK Line: Cincinnati -4.5 The Cleveland Browns are getting some additional offensive firepower with the return of four-time Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb. However, they're also losing some, as they traded lead wide receiver Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills on Tuesday. Coming off a torn ACL, Chubb isn't going to put on a cape and save Cleveland's 30th-ranked scoring offense. Our experts doubt the Browns can keep up with the Cincinnati Bengals, who have scored 33 or more points in three of their last four contests. Sobleski favored the Bengals as a layup pick as the Browns spiral and go into sell mode before the trade deadline. "Another installment in the Battle of Ohio includes two squads going in opposite directions," Sobleski pointed out. "The Bengals hope they're getting into a groove after winning two of their last three and taking the surging Baltimore Ravens into overtime. Meanwhile, the Browns are already waving the white flag after a 1-5 start, as indicated by the Cooper trade. "Deshaun Watson is already the worst quarterback in football. He's not going to get significantly better by throwing to Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman. Even if Cleveland's defense plays well against Cincinnati–which it tends to–the Browns' offense is in such a rut that they likely won't be able to accomplish anything positive." Davenport: Bengals Gagnon: Bengals Hanford: Bengals Knox: Bengals Michelino: Bengals Moton: Bengals O'Donnell: Bengals Sobleski: BengalsATS Consensus: Bengals -4.5Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 17
- Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via DK Line: Philadelphia -3.5 The Philadelphia Eagles will come into this game with an odd vibe around them. If you read the headlines about Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni chirping at fans during last week's home game, you may have forgotten about their 20-16 win over the Cleveland Browns. While the Eagles have dealt with injuries on offense, they aren't playing to their fullest potential. The Eagles haven't scored more than 21 points in a game since their Week 1 win over the Green Bay Packers in Brazil. They're 18th in scoring with a middling defense in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Giants are off to a 2-4 start, but rookie wideout Malik Nabers (concussion) may return to action, and they field the ninth-ranked scoring defense. O'Donnell has dreaded the first Saquon Barkley revenge game against the Giants. He's almost certain the Eagles running back will lead them to victory. "It's the former Giants RB revenge game in New York. This spread is suspiciously low because the Eagles haven't won back-to-back games yet this season and their average margin of victory is barely more than a field goal. The Giants have played games closer than their talent probably warrants, almost all in part to Dexter Lawrence II and the defense's genuinely impressive performance. That won't be enough here. "Malik Nabers's return is washed out by Andrew Thomas' absence . Even if the G-Men do play this one closer than expected, that former Big Blue running back will put the hammer down late. "No. 26 only found the end zone multiple times in a game at Giants Stadium on five occasions in his New York career. He'll score multiple times in his return as Philly finally wins by more than a touchdown." Davenport: Eagles Gagnon: Giants Hanford: Eagles Knox: Eagles Michelino: Eagles Moton: Eagles O'Donnell: Eagles Sobleski: EaglesATS Consensus: Eagles -3.5Score Prediction: Eagles 26, Giants 20
- Patrick Smith/DK Line: Washington -7.5 In Week 3, journeyman quarterback Andy Dalton provided a spark for the Carolina Panthers offense, throwing for 319 yards and three touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders. Since then, the club has tried to establish its ground game, averaging 28.7 rush attempts per contest in that span. The Panthers have struggled to keep up with surging offenses in matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears, and Atlanta Falcons, and they've turned the ball over six times over the last three weeks. The Washington Commanders have forced the third-fewest turnovers (four), and they're giving up five yards per carry, the fourth-most leaguewide . With those factors alone, Carolina has at chance to keep the score close, but most of our panel isn't buying that perspective. Davenport, who's in the Halloween spirit, feels confident that the Commanders bounce back in a big way from their second loss. "This feels like I got the safety scissors pick because I've been terrible this year. That I like Washington big in this game should terrify Commanders fans more than anything Stephen King ever did," Davenport said. "The thing is, this isn't a slam-dunk pick. Washington's defense has been average at best for most of the season. Dalton's Panthers can actually move the football, and that hook looms like the villain from . But the Panthers are just abysmal defensively, and Jayden Daniels will want to make a statement at home after last week's loss in Baltimore. "Commanders by 20. Boo-k it. Davenport: Commanders Gagnon: Commanders Hanford: Commanders Knox: Commanders Michelino: Panthers Moton: Panthers O'Donnell: Commanders Sobleski: CommandersATS Consensus: Commanders -7.5Score Prediction: Commanders 34, Panthers 23
- Brandon Sloter/DK Line: Los Angeles -6.5 The Las Vegas Raiders traded Davante Adams to the New York Jets on Tuesday, and No. 2 wide receiver Jakobi Meyers missed last week's game because of an ankle injury. Las Vegas has racked up the second-fewest rushing yards per game of any team, too. The Raiders' offensive question marks justify this line. Moton doesn't see how Las Vegas exploits Los Angeles' vulnerable run defense. He sided with the Rams, who may get wideout Cooper Kupp (ankle) back on the field Sunday. "The Raiders have struggled to run the ball against all of their opponents, except the Cleveland Browns, so don't expect them to exploit the league's worst run defense," Moton said. "Both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry, and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy's conservative tendencies shouldn't worry the Rams at all. "Even if Kupp doesn't play or is limited coming back from an ankle injury, Kyren Williams and maybe Blake Corum will gouge the Raiders' defensive front on the ground for a decisive victory." Davenport: Raiders Gagnon: Rams Hanford: Rams Knox: Rams Michelino: Rams Moton: Rams O'Donnell: Rams Sobleski: RamsATS Consensus: Rams -6.5Score Prediction: Rams 24, Raiders 16
- Cooper Neill/DK Line: San Francisco -1 The San Francisco 49ers won't come into this matchup equipped with the firepower they had when these teams played in Super Bowl LVIII. Running back Christian McCaffrey hasn't suited up this season because of bilateral Achilles tendinitis. Although wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is healthy, he's had more than 48 receiving yards in only one of six games this season. The 49ers do have a quality fill-in starting tailback in Jordan Mason, but he's dealing with a shoulder injury. The Kansas City Chiefs will likely rely on older veterans such as Kareem Hunt and JuJu Smith-Schuster with Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isiah Pacheco on injured reserve. Even though both teams had extra time to prepare for this game, we may not see too many offensive fireworks. Michelino cannot justify betting against the Chiefs as an underdog. "In what is certain to be the most fascinating game of the week, we're treated to a Super Bowl 58 rematch between the Chiefs and 49ers. Despite the absence of McCaffrey, not much has changed since these teams last met. The Niners still lead the NFC West, and the Chiefs continue to find ways to win. And yes, you read that right...the Chiefs are underdogs yet again. "There are a few significant factors to consider here. Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 straight up as an underdog in his career (and 12-1-1 ATS ), and Andy Reid-led teams are historically great coming off the bye, with an impressive 21-4 record. "Out of desperation, the Chiefs have turned back the clock on offense with Hunt emerging as RB1 and Smith-Schuster leading in receiving yards when we last saw them. Kansas City still boasts an excellent defense, especially against the run, which should neutralize Shanahan's run schemes, especially with a banged-up Mason. "Plus, I've learned my lesson after I made the bold decision to fade Mahomes in the Super Bowl. I promised myself that night that I'd never do it again. Reid and Mahomes are inevitable, and I'll probably pick them as underdogs for the rest of my life." Davenport: Chiefs Gagnon: Chiefs Hanford: Chiefs Knox: Chiefs Michelino: Chiefs Moton: Chiefs O'Donnell: 49ers Sobleski: ChiefsATS Consensus: Chiefs +1Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, 49ers 21
- Kevin Sabitus/ Despite a 2-4 start to the season, the New York Jets are doubling down on going all-in for a playoff run. On Tuesday, the Jets acquired three-time All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders. The Jets' aerial attack may be ready for takeoff, though Hanford also likes how Gang Green's defense matches up with the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line. "This felt like a Steelers loss even before Mike Tomlin decided to turn to Russell Wilson at QB. Justin Fields was inconsistent as a passer, but his legs were the only dynamic element on an otherwise stagnant offense. I'm supposed to believe that a far less mobile QB that basically no team wanted this offseason is going to ignite an offense that boasts Van Jefferson as its No. 2 WR? No way. "The Jets need a win. Badly. And they just swung a deal to reunite Rodgers with his favorite target. I still don't see the Jets winning more than nine games this season, but they'll put one on the board here as the defense exploits a beat-up Steelers offensive line to terrorize Wilson." Davenport: Steelers Gagnon: Jets Hanford: Jets Knox: Jets Michelino: Jets Moton: Jets O'Donnell: Steelers Sobleski: JetsATS Consensus: Jets -1.5Score Prediction: Jets 21, Steelers 17
- Patrick Smith/DK Line: Baltimore -3.5 The Baltimore Ravens offense looks unstoppable, with running back Derrick Henry leading the charge for the league's No. 1 rushing attack. Don't overlook the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, though. They're eighth in rushing yards and accumulated 277 yards on the ground in their Week 6 win over the New Orleans Saints. Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles believes his team has a " three-headed monster " in the backfield with Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker and Rachaad White. Half our crew took the hook with Tampa Bay, but Knox isn't ready to buy Baker Mayfield in a high-scoring drive-for-drive battle with Baltimore. "I'm incredibly tempted to take the home dog here, and if it was a larger line, I would. They seem to be building something special in Tampa, and I think the Bucs can be legitimate Super Bowl contenders this season. However, I don't like this particular matchup for them at all. The Ravens are rolling offensively, and I think they'll control the tempo against a Tampa defense ranked 24th in yards per carry allowed. "Baltimore's pass defense isn't great, but I don't love the idea of Mayfield feeling the need to score on every single possession. The Bucs overcame his three interceptions against the injury-plagued Saints. They'll have a much harder time surviving mistakes against the Ravens." Davenport: Ravens Gagnon: Buccaneers Hanford: Ravens Knox: Ravens Michelino: Buccaneers Moton: Ravens O'Donnell: Buccaneers Sobleski: BuccaneersATS Consensus:Score Prediction: Ravens 28, Buccaneers 24
- Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via DK Line: Los Angeles -2.5 The Los Angeles Chargers defense may get a break in their favor for this matchup, as Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is in concussion protocol. The Cardinals have the 24th-ranked passing offense, so any loss, let alone a No. 1 wideout, is a notable blow to their aerial attack. This year's Chargers don't win with flash, but they're the new tough guys on the block who won't allow opponents to run the ball on them. Their offensive mentality is to grind down defensive fronts with the ground game. Most of our panel believes that Los Angeles matches up well with Arizona, but Gagnon took the home underdog to bounce back from a 21-point Week 6 loss. "This is a bit of an anti-trend pick," Gagnon said. "I don't think the Chargers are significantly better than the Cardinals, and I don't like their chances of executing back-to-back strong road performances. "Meanwhile, the Cards have enough talent to avoid consecutive lopsided losses overall and at home. I'd prefer to get three points if possible, but I'm on Arizona to rebound." Davenport: Chargers Gagnon: Cardinals Hanford: Chargers Knox: Chargers Michelino: Cardinals Moton: Chargers O'Donnell: Cardinals Sobleski: ChargersATS Consensus: Chargers -2.5Score Prediction: Chargers 23, Cardinals 20
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