Bowl projections for Hokies after Week 13: Do you want to salute the military or get a scoop of mayo?
The topic of conversation between media members during halftime of the Battle for the Commonwealth Cup wasn’t on Virginia Tech’s dominating opening 30 minutes against Virginia. Sure, there were comments about how no one really saw that unfolding, but the focus was tailored toward where the Hokies were heading for a bowl game.
More specifically, it was centered around the complexities of what needs to unfold for Tech to get to one bowl or another. There are a myriad of possibilities and the Hokies could land in one of up to five destinations based on how the dominos fall.
Let’s start with the ACC’s pecking order for bowl games. It goes into four tiers.
- College Football Playoff
- Orange Bowl
- Eight Tier 1 bowls (Sun, Gator, Pop-Tarts, Pinstripe, Fenway, Holiday, Duke’s Mayo, Military)
- Three Tier 2 bowls (Gasparilla, Birmingham, First Responder)
For this season in particular, there is one scenario that would be ideal for the ACC to maximize its bowl slots. It begins with the CFP. First, Florida State needs to win the ACC title, be in the top four of the committee’s ranking and secure one of two semifinal berths. Second, Louisville is the highest-rated ACC team and heads to the Orange Bowl. Third, the Orange Bowl opponent needs to be a team from the Big Ten (think Ohio State or Penn State).
If those three things unfold, that opens the door for the ACC to get a team into the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl). The only way an ACC team gets into the ReliaQuest Bowl is if a Big Ten team gets into the Orange Bowl. (It is currently contracted for an SEC-Big Ten showdown.)
Why is that important? Notre Dame is factored into the ACC’s bowl slot this year because of not being in the CFP or NY6. That means the ReliaQuest Bowl would be ideal for the Fighting Irish and not slide the ACC teams down the pecking order.
If you’re keeping count, that leaves nine bowl-eligible ACC teams (N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Miami, Boston College and Syracuse) to fill out the remaining eight Tier 1 bowls. The ninth team would either go to one of the Tier 2 bowls or go to a bowl game in which another conference couldn’t fulfill its obligation.
The Sun Bowl actually provides a team selection process on its website. The bowl game is in the final year of a six-year contract between the ACC and Pac-12, and it lays out the pecking order except for Tier 1. When it gets to that point, that’s when the ACC and its bowl partners make team selections based on several factors. Those include geographic proximity, avoiding repeat appearances and matchups, and regular-season won-loss records.
Based on that, there’s no real pecking order among the bowl games, with the exception being the Sun Bowl getting an ACC team that finished between third and seventh in the league standings.
The bowl projections after Week 13
Military Bowl (Dec. 27, 2 p.m., ESPN; Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 27, 5:30 p.m., ESPN; Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte)
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27, 8 p.m., FOX; Petco Park, San Diego)
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28, 11 a.m., ESPN; Fenway Park, Boston)
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28, 2:15 p.m., ESPN; Yankee Stadium, New York)
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 29, 3:30 p.m., ESPN; Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tenn.)
Where will the Hokies end up?
The Hokies’ destination will depend on the outcome of Saturday’s ACC championship game. If Florida State loses and falls enough in the CFP rankings to not get an at-large into the NY6, then the dominos will likely guarantee Tech heads to the Military Bowl for the third time and first since 2018. The previously mentioned ideal scenario could open up other possibilities, such as the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
The writers seem to like the idea of a Virginia Tech-Kentucky rematch from the 2019 Belk Bowl. Fortunately for Hokies defensive linemen, Lynn Bowden is long gone and won’t throw a pregame punch that doesn’t get him suspended for the game.
The conversations from last weekend also got around to Tech’s opponent. Several wondered why the AAC would be the opponent in the Military and Fenway bowls. The league has three guaranteed bowls on a yearly basis (Military, Fenway and Hawaii or Armed Forces). If the league champion (think Tulane this year) goes to the NY6, then it makes sense to see the second and third go to the Military and Fenway bowls, respectively. SMU and Memphis are both playing really well.
Damien Sordelett (540) 981-3124
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