Brewing storm to hit New England just as Thanksgiving travel surge gets underway

Right now, Tuesday is shaping up to be the best travel day for New Englanders: The National Weather Service said cloudy but dry conditions should prevail for much of the day. That will be set against cooler than normal temperatures that will only reach into the low 40s.

Throw bad weather into the mix, and delays are likely.

Thanksgiving means turkey with all the fixings and spending time with family and friends. But it also means travel headaches for the estimated 55.4 million people expected to be venturing out this week to get to where they need to be — either by road, air, or rail — during what is typically the most hectic travel time of the year.

But late Tuesday night, a storm system that’s been ramping up in parts of the central United States is expected to move into New England, ushering in widespread rain and damaging winds — just as the Thanksgiving travel surge is getting underway.

“Folks who are traveling may want to allow some extra time,” said Bill Leatham, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Norton. “The frontal system will bring steady rainfall through the night and through a pretty good part of Wednesday.”

The storm will extend from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic as it advances toward the East Coast.

Central Massachusetts and the Berkshires could see about 1 to 3 inches of snow at the onset.

But elsewhere, total rainfall will hold to about an inch or so in the Boston metro area and the rest of Southern New England, before tapering off by late Wednesday evening. Cape Cod and the islands may see lingering showers into Thanksgiving.

The good news is that warmer air will move in with the frontal system, pushing temperatures into the 50s, a normal range for November, although wind gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour for interior sections — and up to 50 miles per hour along the coast — will make it “feel 5 to 10 degrees cooler,” Leatham said.

The next round of rain won’t reach the region until Saturday, he said.

Thanksgiving should be sunny but cool and a little breezy at times, with temperatures in the 30s at kickoff time for area high school football games and for the dozen or so annual Turkey Trots , according to the weather service. The high will reach into the upper 40s.

Here’s the weather breakdown for the holiday week:

MA, CT, RI: Plenty of morning sunshine will give way to thickening clouds in the afternoon, considerably cooler than normal. High 41, low 35.

VT: Sunny, then rain moves into the area by 7 p.m., with an overnight changeover to a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow; 3 to 5 inches accumulation possible. High 31, low 27.

NH: Increasing clouds with calm winds, then snow and rain mix in late evening. Accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. High 39, low 31.

Maine: Partly cloudy then snow after midnight; 1 to 3 inches accumulation. High 36, low 26.

MA, CT, RI: Widespread rain with wind gusts of 30 to 50 miles per hour. High 53, low 38.

VT: Rain and freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow before 10 a.m., then rain ending by afternoon. High 36, low 22.

NH: Rain and snow before changing over to all rain in the morning; less than half an inch accumulation. Wind gusts of 20 miles per hour. Chance of rain before 7 p.m. High 46, low 34.

Maine: Rain and snow; 1 to 3 inches accumulation. High 38, low 33.

MA, CT, RI: Sunny. High 47, low 32.

VT: Sunny to partly cloudy. High 33, low 22.

NH: Mostly sunny. High 44, low 28.

Maine: Partly sunny. High 41, low 26.

In all, AAA estimates that 55.4 million folks will be traveling about 50 miles or more from home during the five-day span from Wednesday to Sunday — the third-highest volume, behind 2005 and 2019, since the service began tracking holiday travel.

The Transportation Security Administration anticipates screening about 5,000 more passengers at airports across the country, with the busiest days being Tuesday, Wednesday, and the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

Marianne Mizera can be reached at . Follow her .