Brighton’s Carlos Baleba is more than following in Moises Caicedo’s footsteps
When Brighton & Hove Albion sold Moises Caicedo to Chelsea last summer for a British record transfer fee of £115million, they already had a replacement lined up.
The arrival of Carlos Baleba from Lille a fortnight later in August 2023 was not a knee-jerk reaction to the departure of Caicedo. The Cameroonian had long been tracked as a successor to the Ecuador international.
Brighton knew this would not happen straight away. It was 15 months before Caicedo, signed in the 2021 winter transfer window, made his Premier League debut via a loan spell with Beerschot in Belgium. He went on to be a big influence on the team's fortunes for one and a half seasons before the move to Chelsea.
Caicedo was 19 when Brighton signed him for approximately £4million ($5.2m at current rates) from Independiente del Valle in his homeland. Although already a senior international by that stage, he was still inexperienced, having made 20 appearances in the Ecuadorian top flight and Copa Libertadores.
Baleba was also 19 when he signed (turning 20 in January 2024) and was similarly inexperienced — 21 appearances in Ligue 1 for Lille. A much higher price tag of £26million reflected the scale of his potential and the size of the fee banked for Caicedo.
Baleba was thrown straight into the heat of battle last season by former head coach Roberto De Zerbi. He made 37 appearances across all competitions. Six were in the Europa League , but only 15 were Premier League starts. Contributions rich in promise were matched by moments of naivety.
Overall, in his first 15 months as a first-team player at Brighton, Baleba has shown enough to suggest that he too could mature into the kind of profit-making machine for which their recruitment has become renowned.
It is instructive to look at how Baleba and Caicedo are developing. The data illustrates how they differ and their biggest strengths, with both players emerging as key figures under new head coaches.
Although they have adapted their games to fit differing roles, the numbers can still help outline their stylistic differences.
Baleba has started seven of the first 10 Premier League games under Fabian Hurzeler at Brighton this season. It would have been eight starts, but a knee injury kept him on the bench during Saturday's 2-1 defeat at Liverpool . Caicedo has started all 10 of Chelsea's league matches for Enzo Maresca.
Baleba has been more of a first receiver in the build-up, or someone who drops between the centre-backs, as we can see from the concentrated area just inside the defensive third on his heatmap (below).
Baleba has received 131 passes from Lewis Dunk in the league since joining and 106 from the captain's centre-back partner Jan Paul van Hecke — his two most common connections. Caicedo's role at Chelsea has often been part of a double pivot where he has been allowed to push on a bit more down the right half-space and get more involved in building attacking moves.
A partnership with Argentinian World Cup winner Enzo Fernandez when he first joined lacked cohesion, but Caicedo is now blossoming in tandem with Romeo Lavia .
Caicedo has played 5.6 passes into the final third per game at Chelsea, while Baleba is down at 2.9. But Baleba stands out with the forward momentum he generates when carrying the ball. His average carry distance (5.2metres) is higher than Caicedo's (3.9). We can also see from the graphic (below) that Baleba is quite happy to drive through the centre of midfield with the ball at his feet.
A good example was Baleba's assist for Simon Adingra in a 4-0 home win against League One side Crawley Town in the Carabao Cup in August. Baleba is the last line of defence with Adam Webster when he is in possession inside his own half (see clip below).
He shuns the chance to give a square pass to Webster and runs through the centre circle with the ball at his feet after evading an opponent's challenge.
Baleba has central runners ahead of him, but he keeps driving forward with the ball until spotting Adingra, cutting infield from the left wing.
A perfectly weighted pass for Adingra to run onto, inside his marker, enables the Ivory Coast winger to open the scoring.
Defensively, things are a bit harder to measure, as Brighton and Chelsea face different challenges out of possession, but the numbers suggest that both players are proactive without the ball.
While Baleba is more dominant with aerial duels (67 per cent win rate to Caicedo's 51 per cent), Caicedo is generally more assured in the tackle, with a higher 'true-tackle' win rate of 57 per cent vs 47 per cent (a metric that measures total tackles, plus challenges lost, plus fouls when attempting a tackle, so the figures suggest that Caicedo wins a higher proportion of the challenges he goes for.)
Baleba conceded a penalty in a 2-2 home draw against Nottingham Forest in September for a challenge on Callum Hudson-Odoi . He gave away another spot kick six days later, bringing down Jadon Sancho in a 4-2 defeat at Chelsea. Baleba cannot yet match Caicedo's expertise in patrolling inside and outside his own penalty area.
It is a different matter in contributing to attacks. In that Chelsea game, Baleba made nine progressive passes to Caicedo's two (passes that move the ball towards the opponents' goal-line by at least 10 yards, or any pass inside the penalty area). Baleba also had twice as many take-ons (four), defined as the number of attempts to take on defenders while dribbling.
Baleba scored his second goal of the season at Stamford Bridge, intercepting a poor pass out by former Brighton goalkeeper Robert Sanchez to Caicedo. Baleba's first goal of the campaign, in a 3-2 win against Wolves in the Carabao Cup at the Amex Stadium in September, illustrated his intensity and his shooting power from long range. In the clip (below) he is quick to close down Joao Gomes as the Wolves midfielder receives a pass.
Baleba outmuscles Gomes, stealing possession high up the pitch.
Baleba scans his options. Adingra has his hand raised for a cross into the penalty area, but Baleba sees the space ahead of him (shaded area), with no Wolves player nearby.
He advances to unleash a left-foot shot past Jose Sa into the far corner of the net.
Two goals in 47 appearances in total for Baleba in a Brighton shirt is a modest tally, but almost half of those outings (22) have been as a substitute. It is a department of his game with room for substantial growth.
It still compares favourably with Caicedo's four goals in 113 games (104 starts) for Brighton and Chelsea, a figure expanded by a well-struck equaliser in Sunday's 1-1 draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Caicedo is highly skilled in the arts of defensive midfield play — but if Baleba maintains his progress, he possesses the attributes to earn him another big move.
(Top photo: Glyn Kirk/AFP via )
