Broncos vs Chiefs Week 10: Keys to the game

The Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs , as we know, have a long and storied rivalry that dates back to before the AFL-NFL merger, and the Chiefs have the better side of the record between the two teams, currently leading 72-56. It doesn't help that the Chiefs also own a record of 16-1 in the last 17 matchups between Kansas City and Denver.

But the good news is that the Broncos won the last matchup, and they won it in decisive fashion. And they did so with a worse roster than they are fielding this year.

The Chiefs have been winning, but they've also been winning by the slimmest of margins. Six of their eight wins were one-score games, and they've played down to the level of the New Orleans Saints and the Las Vegas Raiders . They also almost got beat by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday, but, of course, Patrick Mahomes pulled out the overtime victory.

This is a beatable team and the Broncos might have what it takes to pull off an upset on Sunday.

The Broncos actually did a fairly good job running the ball against the Ravens; the league's best rushing defense. They came away from the game averaging 4.2 yards per carry by their running backs (Baltimore is averaging 3.4 yards per carry on defense) and the offensive line proved they can move people off of the line of scrimmage.

The play that consistently worked best for them against the Ravens (and something they've ran well for the last few weeks) was Guard-Influenced Y Wham. Specifically from under-center in a Twins Wing Right formation.

This play is awesome for a few reasons. One, the guard influence freezes up the DT, giving the Y more time to get there and preventing the DT from blowing up the play at the handoff. Two, Inside Trap concepts are quick hitting and good for a guy like Javonte Williams. And three, it can provide a lane for a jump cut right down the middle.

I would love for Denver to pull this out at least a few times against the Chiefs.

It's a dangerous game when you talk about touching Patrick Mahomes. Even if you're just lightly grazing him. The slightest touch can draw a penalty. But it might be a risk Denver will have to take.

Even though he didn't do it as much as usual against the Ravens, Vance Joseph needs to crank up the blitzes again, like he's done all year, and get pressure in the face of Mahomes.

And even without blitzing, the front three have done a solid job of generating pressures and sacks. Denver is by far the league leader in pressures, and they are second in the league in sacks.

Neither team is very good on third down. The Broncos sit at 17th in the league with a conversion rate of 26.8%, and the Chiefs are 18th at a rate of 36.2%.

With both teams being so mediocre, teetering near poor, on third down, this stat may define the winner of the game. If Denver is able to convert at a higher rate then that has the chance of juristically increasing their odds of victory. The defense needs to come up with clutch stops and the offense needs to stay on schedule and put up short, manageable distances on third down.