Buying or Selling Yankees, Mets and 10 Surging and Slumping Contenders

Zachary D. Rymer

Buying or Selling Yankees, Mets and 10 Surging and Slumping Contenders

Andrew Mordzynski/Icon Sportswire via Here we are just a little past the halfway mark of the 2024 MLB season, and some contenders are basically doing what they've been doing all year.
The Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers, for example, have been chugging along since Day 1. And while the Cleveland Guardians have slipped since going 25 games over .500 on June 25, they still have a healthy lead in the AL Central.
For the most part, though, the big picture of how contenders around the league are trending is a jumbled mess.
Let's look at 10 surging and slumping contenders (five of each) and play a game of "Buy or Sell?" to determine whether their current play should be taken at face value. Is what's happening now indicative of anything still to come, or merely a blip?
We might as well start in New York, where the Mets and Yankees are going in opposite directions.

Surging: New York Mets

Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Overall Record:
Last 26 Games:
On June 2, the Mets were a season-high 11 games under .500 and speculation was swirling over how many of their players would move ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.
But do you see that record in their last 26 games? It's one of the best in baseball .
The offense that should be taking a bow, as it's produced eight more runs ( 165 ) than any other team in this span. Their key guys have been hitting for average and power. None more so than Brandon Nimmo, who's hitting .354 with six home runs since June 14.
This offensive onslaught is probably unsustainable, but the "probably" is necessary. This offense always had the potential to be good, and in its future are plenty of opportunities to feast. Per FanGraphs , the Mets' remaining schedule is tied for the easiest in MLB.
That also figures to benefit the pitching staff, which notably stands to regain Kodai Senga off the injured list and potentially bullpen upgrades off the trade market.
In all, there's enough to believe the Mets will stay in the NL wild-card race now that they've found their way into it. As it is, only 2.5 games separate them from the third spot.
Verdict:

Slumping: New York Yankees

R.J. Johnston/Toronto Star via Overall Record:
Last 17 Games:
With an 8-1 win over the Boston Red Sox on June 14, the Yankees reached their peak. They were 28 games over .500 and holding a 3.5-game lead in the AL East.
Since then, though, their run differential is just as alarming as their record. They've been outscored by 38 runs, or more than two per game. That's Chicago White Sox territory .
An offense that was already too reliant on Aaron Judge and Juan Soto has gotten even more so since the IL claimed Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo. And the rotation has been a disaster, with starters not named Nestor Cortes posting a 9.05 ERA since June 15.
Given that their remaining schedule is the easiest of any AL team, this is probably as bad as it's going to get for the Yankees. But if the real question is whether they'll get back to the winning pace they had before all this, one is skeptical.
Having Judge Soto is better than just having Judge, but the top-heaviness of the lineup is too reminiscent of 2022 for comfort. Mound-wise, Luis Gil looks gassed, Carlos Rodón isn't what he was before the Yankees signed him and Gerrit Cole's fastball is 1.1 mph below his career average.
In other words, the red flags here are real indeed.
Verdict:

Surging: Boston Red Sox

Jaiden Tripi/Overall Record:
Last 19 Games:
Even before the Red Sox took that series from the Yankees, they had already hinted they had something in them by taking a series from the Phillies.
There's nonetheless room for skepticism. The Red Sox have outscored their competition by only 14 runs in their last 19 games. And contrary to the Yankees, their remaining schedule is the second-hardest in the AL.
Much must therefore go right for the Red Sox, including them sustaining their offensive awakening.
After averaging 4.4 runs through their first 67 games, they're at 5.5 over their last 19. This sample size coincides with the lineup getting healthier and more athletic, and they're still awaiting Triston Casass return off the IL after the All-Star break.
There's a bigger question looming over a pitching staff that has seen its ERA rise from 2.99 on May 22 to 3.57 today. Starters Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta have been up and down, and even Tanner Houck got shelled his last time out. It's fair to wonder if fatigue is a factor.
Granted, the Red Sox could play .500 ball the rest of the way and still stick in the AL wild-card race. Which is good, because right now is probably as good as it's going to get.
Verdict:

Slumping: Kansas City Royals

Katelyn Mulcahy/Overall Record:
Last 36 Games:
How surprising was it when the Royals got to 34-19 and within 1.5 games of first on May 25? To give you an idea, they began the year with a 13.1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
As for what's gone wrong since then, the focus belongs on the offense.
It hasn't gone totally belly-up, as its collective batting average has "only" declined from .253 to .245 over these last 36 games. With runners in scoring position, however, it's a different story:
1. First 53 Games: .307 AVG
2. Last 35 Games: .258 AVG
This is what they call "regressing to the mean," and it was inevitable. No team has hit over .300 with runners in scoring position over a full season since the St. Louis Cardinals in 2013 .
The Royals don't have many other run-scoring means at their disposal. They have 77 stolen bases, but more than half belong to Bobby Witt Jr. (22) and Maikel Garcia (21). And the last time they were one of the AL's top-10 home run-hitting teams was all the way back in 2003.
They're nonetheless reportedly focused on bullpen depth over offensive upgrades as the trade deadline gets closer. The latter is undoubtedly a real need, but it really feels like the former is the only thing that will snap the Royals out of their funk.
Verdict:

Surging: Minnesota Twins

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Overall Record:
Last 23 Games:
The Twins have won 16 out of their last 23 games in part because they just can't stop hitting home runs.
They've hit at least one ball over the fence in 22 straight to set a club record . Pretty much everyone has gotten in on the act, as 11 different hitters can claim at least a small bit of credit for the club's 34 homers in this span.
The bad news? The guy who's contributed the most is going to be out for a while. Again.
One feels at Royce Lewis. He's been stupendous when he's been healthy, hitting 27 homers in 94 career games. But he's basically never healthy, and is now set to be out a few weeks with a right adductor strain after previously missing two months with a right quad strain.
With him in it, Minnesota's lineup is very good. Without him, it's merely good. And maybe not even good enough to sustain a pitching staff that still has issues on the starting end.
Twins starters have gotten better since beginning this year with a 4.63 ERA through June 8, but only Joe Ryan, Pablo López and Bailey Ober are pitching well. They can't make every start.
Verdict:

Slumping: Chicago Cubs

Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Overall Record:
Last 26 Games:
At this point, to still be referring to the Cubs as a contender is a kindness.
Their record in their last 25 games is relevant because it covers all the games they've played since they were last at .500 on June 5. And even that came on the heels of a 12-22 stretch.
But since the Cubs began with a 41.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, they're entitled to the following question: Is there any hope?
There is some to be found in how the Cubs are tied with the Mets for the easiest remaining schedule in MLB. Otherwise, the only thing to do is take it on faith that this offense will find its way.
It's been slumping for a while now, batting .220 and scoring 3.6 runs per game dating back to April 27. Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ and Michael Busch have done OK, but Dansby Swanson has failed to launch and Christopher Morel has been wildly inconsistent.
If the offense does eventually come around, the Cubs will merely need a rotation with not one, two or three butguys with an ERA under 3.20 to keep doing its part. Even if it goes against my better judgment, I'll take the bet.
Verdict:

Surging: St. Louis Cardinals

Tim Nwachukwu/Overall Record:
Last 47 Games:
The nadir of the Cardinals' season happened between April 28 and May 11, when they lost 10 out of 12 and fell to 9.0 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central.
Though their deficit within the division has only closed to 6.0 games since then, the Cardinals now hold one of the National League's three wild-card spots. Once as low as 10.4 percent, their chances of playing October baseball are 45.6 percent .
It nonetheless feels like the Cardinals are getting away with something.
Simply that they're three games over .500 despite being outscored by 37 runs for the season raises suspicion. And even now, it's not as if they're consistently outclassing teams. They've won 14 of their last 21, but with only a plus-five run differential.
The pitching is solid, especially regarding a bullpen that has a 2.72 ERA since the start of June. But this offense won't scare anyone unless Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado finally wake up. Its OPS hasn't gone above .688 at any point. The MLB average is .705.
The Cardinals' remaining schedule is on the easy side, but not as much as those of the Cubs, Brewers and Cincinnati Reds. As they're only 16-21 against winning teams, that could matter.
Verdict:

Slumping: Texas Rangers

Stacy Revere/Overall Record:
Last 48 Games:
Like the Cubs, the Rangers are a CiNO: Contender in Name Only.
The defending World Series champs were doing fine at the outset, notably holding a 1.0-game lead in the AL West upon getting off to 22-17 start. But pretty much ever since then, it's been one step forward and two steps back.
The Rangers were always going to need their offense to carry them as they waited on Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle to come off the injured list. It can't be overstated how much this happening. The Rangers have scored three or fewer runs in nearly half (42, to be exact) their games.
But if something can feel too good to be true, then this feels too bad to be true.
Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García are simply too talented to remain stuck with a 159-point drop from their collective OPS in 2023. In the meantime, Wyatt Langford is already hot and both Josh Jung and Evan Carter should be back before August .
That should also be true of deGrom and Mahle, though not Scherzer because he's already back in the rotation. Overlay the lens of a light remaining schedule , and one still see the Rangers going on a season-saving run.
Verdict:

Surging: Houston Astros

Kevin M. Cox/MLB Photos via Overall Record:
Last 14 Games:
This is not to imply there's nothing to worry about. Pitching is still not as sturdy of a strength as it used to be, especially with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy done for the year after having Tommy John surgery. And what was supposed to be a vaunted bullpen just isn't.
Yet even in the face of all this, the Astros boast an MLB-best 3.24 ERA over the last 30 days.
Hunter Brown's ascendance via a 1.29 ERA over his last eight starts has helped, while Ronel Blanco and Framber Valdez are also pitching well. They'll soon be rejoined by Justin Verlander, who was arguably Houston's best starter when he went down with a stiff neck.
There's otherwise nothing wrong with the Astros offense. It leads MLB in batting average at .264 and it's been averaging 5.5 runs per game even since Kyle Tucker hurt his shin on June 3. He, too, should be back soon.
The road to what would be the Astros' eighth American League Championship Series appearance in as many years remains long. But the one to the playoffs? It's getting shorter.
Verdict:

Slumping: Seattle Mariners

Steph Chambers/Overall Record:
Last 14 Games:
Even when the Mariners were racking up wins in bunches, it always felt like a matter of time before their offense would trip them up.
This is what's happening now, and it's pretty. Seattle's hitters are batting just .186 and scoring 3.1 runs per game over the team's last 14 games. Manager Scott Servais is frustrated, especially with Julio Rodríguez.
"We need everybody to pick it up and contribute offensively," Servais said before a 2-0 loss to Baltimore on Tuesday. "It's not just one guy. But Julio is the main guy."
Servais isn't wrong, as Rodríguez is way too talented to be sitting there with a .632 OPS. But the problem extends well beyond him, specifically where this offense's strikeout habit is concerned.
The league-wide strikeout rate is 22.2 percent, and the Mariners have eight regulars over that line. It helps explain why this team has the lowest expected average in addition to the lowest actual average in MLB.
A pitching staff that leads MLB in opponent batting average will keep ensuring that the Mariners stay in games. But if even Rodríguez can't fix this offense, maybe nothing can.
Verdict:

X