CFB Over/Under best bet: Texas State-Sam Houston odds, prediction

Despite having not faced off in more than a decade, an intense rivalry will be renewed Saturday afternoon when Sam Houston (3-1, 1-0 conference) hosts Texas State (2-1, 0-0 conference) in their lone annual home game at NRG Stadium, the venue of the NFL's Houston Texans.

To be precise, it's been 13 years when these two programs last met after playing against one another in just about every single season dating back to 1915!

That's because Texas State bolted for the NCAA FBS ranks in 2012 — joining the Western Athletic Conference for one season before its current residence in the Sun Belt Conference — way before Sam Houston arrived around these parts just last year as a member of Conference USA.

You can bet on this Texas State vs. Sam Houston college football Week 5 matchup at all of the best Michigan sportsbooks .

Texas State vs. Sam Houston betting preview A deep-running history Previously, the two schools met 92 times, with Texas State holding the advantage via a 50-37-5 record. Sam Houston, however, went 21-19-3 as the home side.

In regard to projecting this weekend's return affair, none of those stats matter anyway, as these are obviously two completely different rosters. And the makeup of both may point to a Texas-sized shootout in store. The game's Over/Under is set at 55.5 (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook ).

Clear forecast for McCloud The reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year, Jordan McCloud, has continued to excel in his first year with Texas State.

After leading the conference, a season ago in passing touchdowns (35) and completion percentage (68.2 percent) with James Madison, the senior quarterback is putting up similarly impressive numbers in both categories.

Having tossed nine TDs while completing 67.2 percent of his throws through the first three games, McCloud is pacing toward another big campaign. Just look no further than the 271.7 yards per game he's registering, not to mention a pair of rushing scores, too.

With what the veteran signal-caller has been doing, the Bobcats plating 37 points per week should come as a surprise to no one. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Over/Under total touchdown amount at 6.5 (-130 odds).

What about the defense? Texas State may be scoring in bunches but they're also allowing about the same amount on the defensive side of the ball. They're a little improved from last year thus far — although that might not be saying much after conceding a whopping 32.8 points on average to the opposition in 2023.

That may bode well for Sam Houston, who have scored more than 30 points in three of their four ballgames. Caesars Sportsbook has the Bearkats at +250 odds on the moneyline.

Hunter Watson — fresh off a national title in JUCO football with Iowa Western CC — has been a little inconsistent but his dual-threat ability may pave way for one of his better efforts in this particular matchup.

Watson has compiled almost half as many rushing yards (233) as passing yards (540), and those unpredictable tendencies could at least enable the Bearkats to score 20 or more points.

A couple of quality tailbacks in Jeyvon Ducker and DJ McKinney potentially open things up. Remember, with Texas State's proficiency on offense, just a satisfactory outing here could be enough from Watson and Co.

Texas State vs. Sam Houston prediction Most places have this over/under set at 56.5 but bettors can find a total that's actually a full point lower at 55.5 out there on FanDuel Sportsbook . At least one crooked number should be expected in the final score, and so long as it's not a complete blowout, there should be enough points here for the over to propel.

Pick: OVER 55.5 (-110)

Last week's result: N/A (no game)