College football betting preview: How to bet Alabama vs. Georgia

These picks waited until the very end of the regular season to have a bad week, going a dismal 1-3 last weekend . Still, at 27-21 on the season, we have a chance to close things out on a high note with this weekend’s conference championship games.

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This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything (another favorite or underdog in a game that might be flying under the radar or a total, for instance). Hopefully we’ll all be in good shape by the time the clock hits zero at the national championship game in Houston on Jan. 8.

All spreads were taken Wednesday from DraftKings Sportsbook . All times Eastern.

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The game of the week

SEC championship game

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8 Alabama in Atlanta

The pick: Georgia -51⁄2

Alabama’s offense has been extremely reliant on explosive plays, defined here as passing plays that gain at least 15 yards or running plays that gain at least 10 yards. In last week’s escape-act win over Auburn , 73.7 percent of the Crimson Tide’s total yardage came on explosive plays, and Alabama’s plays that were not considered explosive gained only 2.3 yards per snap. It has been like this all season: In the Crimson Tide’s 34-24 loss to Texas on Sept. 9, Alabama gained 90 percent of its yardage on explosive plays, and its nonexplosive plays gained 0.7 yards on average. Alabama’s offense has accounted for 40 touchdowns, with 24 of them coming on explosive plays (60 percent).

Georgia’s defense has been pretty good at limiting such plays. The Bulldogs have allowed just 129 scrimmage plays of at least 10 yards ( tied for 11th nationally ) and 35 scrimmage plays of at least 20 yards ( tied for ninth ). Opponents have gained at least 20 yards on running plays only six times ( tied for fifth ), and Alabama runs the ball a whole lot: 60.2 percent of the time , the 14th-highest percentage in the country. Georgia has allowed just nine explosive-play touchdowns in 11 games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents, and only two of them have come in the second half of those games. I think the Bulldogs will take Alabama’s best shot early and then exert their will late, getting the cover.

The favorite

Big 12 championship game

No. 7 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State in Arlington, Tex.

Noon Saturday, ABC

The pick: Texas -15

The Cowboys needed a certain amount of luck to even get to the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma State has a 26-point loss to South Alabama — which finished 6-6 — on its résumé, then was fortunate to come away with victories in two of its conference games. In an Oct. 14 win over Kansas, Oklahoma State got the ball in Jayhawks territory on each of its last three drives thanks to an interception and two turnovers on downs, helping to seal the victory. In the Cowboys’ 27-24 upset of Oklahoma on Nov. 4, the Sooners came up scoreless on four drives into Oklahoma State territory, and Oklahoma averaged nearly two yards more per play than the Cowboys. Oklahoma State’s postgame win expectancy in that one was just 37.9 percent . That win gave the Cowboys the tiebreaker over Oklahoma in the Big 12 standings after both finished 7-2 in conference play.

Texas not only needs a win to keep its College Football Playoff chances alive, but it also wouldn’t hurt to impress the selection committee while doing so. It also needs someone in the top four of this week’s rankings — namely No. 4 Florida State — to lose and hope Georgia doesn’t lose to Alabama, but that’s out of the Longhorns’ control. What in Texas’s control is the ability to stop Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II, the nation’s leading rusher at 131.7 yards per game. The Longhorns rank fifth in rushing yards allowed per game , fifth in rushing yards allowed per carry and seventh in success rate against the run. They gave up 110 rushing yards to Texas Tech last weekend — the first time in six games they gave up triple digits on the ground. But the Red Raiders needed 28 carries to get there, and it’s not like it made much of a difference in Texas’s 57-7 win.

Oklahoma State has given up an average of 36.3 points in its past three games to Central Florida, Houston and BYU, and none of those teams scare anyone offensively. Texas ranks eighth in offensive SP+ , a measure of efficiency, and I think the Longhorns stroll here.

The underdog

Mid-American Conference championship game

Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) in Detroit

Noon Saturday, ESPN

The pick: Miami +8

The Rockets and RedHawks met Oct. 21, a 21-17 Toledo win in which Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert suffered a season-ending leg injury. I think the oddsmakers are reading a little too much into that.

Miami became a much more run-heavy team in the three games that followed that loss, averaging 40.7 carries. (I’m throwing out last weekend’s 17-15 squeaker over Ball State because the RedHawks had clinched the MAC East title and didn’t have to exert themselves too much.) Running back Rashad Amos did much of the heavy lifting, averaging 7.1 yards per carry and rushing for five touchdowns in those three games. The Rockets are weakest against the run, ranking 84th in rushing defense success rate and 83rd in expected points allowed per carry, and they’ve allowed at least five yards per carry in three of their past four games, with Central Michigan averaging six yards per carry against Toledo this past weekend.

Led by quarterback Dequan Finn, the Rockets’ offense comes in averaging 15.3 scrimmage plays of at least 10 yards and 5.3 of at least 20 yards, both of which topped the MAC. But the RedHawks’ defense trailed only Northern Illinois in terms of 10-yard plays allowed by MAC teams, ranking No. 19 nationally in that department. If they can continue to limit big plays and get Amos going on the ground against a susceptible Toledo rushing defense, I think they keep this within a touchdown.

The wild card

Mountain West championship game

Boise State vs. UNLV in Las Vegas

The pick: over 59

The Broncos and Runnin’ Rebels are mediocre defensively, even though neither has had to play many good offenses. Boise State has taken on just three teams that rank in the top 47 in terms of offensive SP+, giving up 9.31 yards per play to Washington, 8.15 yards per play to Central Florida and 7.11 yards per play to Memphis. UNLV has had to play just one top-47 team in terms of SP+ offense, giving up 8.07 yards per play to Michigan. Last weekend, the Runnin’ Rebels surrendered 37 points and 7.3 yards per play in a loss to San Jose State (No. 48 in SP+ offense).

Having a defense that regularly allows big plays is part of the problem for both teams. UNLV’s opponents have gained at least 20 yards on 71 scrimmage plays; only five FBS teams allowed more. Boise State has given up 177 plays of at least 10 yards, which ranks 103rd nationally.

But both teams can move the ball at least a little bit, with UNLV ranking 30th in SP+ offense and Boise State 33rd , and I think two defenses unaccustomed to facing at least remotely competent offenses will allow a lot of points. Take the over.