College football bowl projections: LSU-Notre Dame in Tampa, USC-Clemson in San Diego?
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LSU and Brian Kelly versus Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman in Tampa. USC versus Clemson in San Diego. The Dennis Erickson Bowl in El Paso. Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss offense against the Iowa defense in Orlando.
These matchups will get overshadowed by the New Year’s Six, but to college football aficionados, these are the matchups that make bowl season the most wonderful time of the year.
All 82 spots are filled for the upcoming bowls, which will be unveiled Sunday. Following Hawaii’s upset of Colorado State , 79 teams became bowl-eligible. James Madison and Jacksonville State were next in line as second-year transitional squads. Minnesota rounded out the list as the 5-7 team with the best Academic Progress Report (APR).
A few bullet points:
• Our College Football Playoff projection remains unchanged with No. 1 Georgia playing No. 4 Florida State in the Sugar Bowl and No. 2 Michigan facing No. 4 Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
• The Orange Bowl automatically hosts either the ACC champion or the highest-ranked available ACC team, which could be Louisville either way. The opponent is the highest-ranked non-champion from either the Big Ten or the SEC, which appears to be Ohio State . If the Big Ten appears in the Orange Bowl, it forfeits its ReliaQuest spot to the ACC/Notre Dame.
• As for the remaining New Year’s Six bowls, we shifted Tulane back in as the top Group of 5 champion to face Penn State , which is the final at-large, at the Peach Bowl. The Cotton Bowl boasts a former Big 12 and future SEC matchup between Texas and Missouri . As for the Fiesta Bowl, Alabama and Washington might have the most appeal beyond the CFP.
• One pair of upsets could radically shift these projections. If Oklahoma State and Louisville beat Texas and Florida State, respectively, then Ohio State could jump in the CFP as the No. 4 team and send Alabama to the Orange Bowl, which could knock Penn State to the Citrus Bowl and open the ReliaQuest Bowl to Iowa.
Friendly reminder: Bowls rarely choose teams in order of conference standings. When you see USC listed as “Pac-12 No. 4,” it does not mean the Trojans are the Pac-12’s fourth-place team but that the Holiday Bowl uses its No. 4 pick to select them.
Another note: If ESPN is listed after a team, that means ESPN Events has the selection for that bowl game. ESPN Events owns and operates 18 bowls and picks from a pool of mostly Group of 5 teams.
The fine print:
* Replacement for a conference without enough eligible teams
** Projected 5-7 team
Dec. 29
Texas (Big 12) vs. Missouri (at-large)
Arlington, Texas
Dec. 30
Penn State (at-large) vs. Tulane (at-large)
Noon ET
Dec. 30
Louisville (ACC) vs. Ohio State (SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Jan. 1
Washington (at-large) vs. Alabama (at-large)
Glendale, Ariz.
Jan. 1
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oregon
Pasadena, Calif.
Jan. 1
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Florida State
New Orleans
Remaining bowlsDec. 16
Kansas State (Big 12 No. 7)
Cal (Pac-12 7)
LA Bowl
Dec. 16
UCLA (Pac-12 6)
UNLV (MWC 1)
New Mexico
Dec. 16
Wyoming (MWC)
New Mexico State (ESPN)
Dec. 16
USF (ESPN)
Coastal Carolina (ESPN)
New Orleans
Dec. 16
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Jacksonville St. (C-USA)
Myrtle Beach
Dec. 16
Georgia Southern (ESPN)
Ohio (ESPN)
Famous Toastery
Dec. 18
Arkansas State (ESPN)
Western Kentucky (ESPN)
Dec. 19
Appalachian State (ESPN)
Fresno State (ESPN)
Boca Raton
Dec. 21
James Madison (ESPN)
Toledo (ESPN)
Dec. 22
UCF (ESPN)
Georgia Tech (ACC/SEC)
Dec. 23
San Jose State (MWC)
Marshall* (AAC)
Dec. 23
Utah (Pac-12 3)
Northwestern (Big Ten 3)
Dec. 23
South Alabama (Sun Belt)
Eastern Michigan (MAC)
Idaho Potato
Dec. 23
Utah State (MWC)
Georgia State (ESPN)
Armed Forces
Dec. 23
Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 8)
Air Force (ESPN)
Dec. 23
Troy (ESPN)
Liberty* (SEC 9)
Dec. 23
Bowling Green (ESPN)
Old Dominion (ESPN)
Guaranteed Rate
Dec. 26
Maryland (Big Ten 6)
Kansas (Big 12 6)
First Responder
Dec. 26
Rice (ESPN)
Texas State (ESPN)
Quick Lane
Dec. 26
Minnesota** (Big Ten 7)
NIU (MAC)
Dec. 27
Oklahoma State (Big 12 4)
Texas A&M (SEC 3-8)
Dec. 27
Clemson (ACC 3-5)
USC (Pac-12 4)
Duke's Mayo
Dec. 27
Kentucky (SEC 3-8)
Virginia Tech (ACC 6-8)
Dec. 27
UTSA (AAC)
Boston College (ACC 9)
Dec. 28
Oklahoma (Big 12 2)
Arizona (Pac-12 2)
Pop-Tarts
Dec. 28
West Virginia (Big 12 3)
NC State (ACC 3-5)
Dec. 28
Rutgers (Big Ten 5)
Duke (ACC 6-8)
Dec. 28
Syracuse (ACC 10)
SMU (AAC)
Dec. 29
Iowa State (Big 12 6)
Memphis* (SEC 3-8)
Dec. 29
Miami (ACC 6-8)
Oregon State (Pac-12 5)
Dec. 29
North Carolina (ACC 3-5)
Tennessee (SEC 3-8)
Dec. 30
Boise State (MWC)
Miami of Ohio (MAC)
Music City
Dec. 30
Wisconsin (Big Ten 4)
Auburn (SEC 3-8)
Jan. 1
Iowa (Big Ten No. 2)
Ole Miss (SEC No. 2)
Jan. 1
Notre Dame (ACC No. 2)
LSU (SEC 3-8)
(Photo of Brian Kelly: Butch Dill / USA Today)
