Commanders questions left to answer: Sam Howell, Eric Bieniemy, youngsters and more
The firing of defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio on Friday capped an eventful and dismal week for the Washington Commanders . It also made clear the organizational significance of the final five regular-season games.
Losing eight of 10 games, including two in five days (both against NFC East rivals) by a combined score of 76-29, led to the ousters of Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer. The freefall also moved the Commanders from the playoff chase to the draft selection race.
Head coach Ron Rivera is still in charge and has more game day responsibility as the new defensive play caller. He hopes the changes “can shake some things up,” starting with Sunday’s home game against the offensively frightening Miami Dolphins . The big-picture story is how extensive the upcoming refresh — which feels more like a rebuild with each passing week — must be.
This is familiar territory for the long-suffering fan base, but the late-July ownership change from Dan Snyder to a group led by Josh Harris eliminated the wash-rinse-repeat vibe. Those who think these closing games will be a brutal slog are not wrong — unless you consider them for what they are: The real start of the Harris era.
Jack Del Rio is out. The 45-10 loss. Tons of topics to discuss with . Assessing the JDR era. Where did it go so wrong in the secondary? What now for Ron Rivera and the Commanders? Where has this team overachieved this season?— Ben Standig November 25, 2023
Sam Howell and Eric Bieniemy
The second-year quarterback’s growth has been the topic in town following the franchise sale in July. That remains the case, although intrigue is growing surrounding upcoming decisions from ownership with the coaching and front-office staff. Regardless, quarterback remains the most critical position by miles.
Howell continues to exceed preseason expectations — but the bar has now changed on two fronts.
It’s no longer a question of whether he can start in the league. Rather, does Howell have the goods to become elite or reach that “we can win with him” level occupied by Kirk Cousins , Ryan Tannehill and others in recent years?
Howell has a solid baseline with poise, mobility, grit and a talented right arm. We can blame some of the mistakes — 13 interceptions, holding the ball too long in the pocket — on youth. Combined with the 23-year-old’s minuscule contract — he has a cap hit of less than $1.1 million — Howell is worth projecting as QB1 next season.
But this is where the second change comes in. Suddenly, Washington is in position for the fifth selection in April’s draft and has one of the more challenging remaining schedules — there is a good chance the Commanders won’t be favored in any of them. That would give the team a chance to target any QB in the 2024 class with a small trade-up or perhaps by standing pat.
USC’s Caleb Williams, a D.C. native, has been viewed as the likely No. 1 selection, followed closely by Drake Maye, Howell’s successor at UNC. LSU’s Jaylen Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. are part of the first-round conversation. Those passers will have more substantial draft grades league-wide than Howell, a 2022 fifth-round pick.
Washington’s final five games (really six, starting with the Thanksgiving loss against Dallas ) will provide a sterner test for Howell and the offense. The stretch will also give next season’s decision-makers their final chance to ponder Howell’s upside compared to that of those QBs who could come off the board very, very early.
All of Howell’s successes or failures and will occur with guidance from Bieniemy, his offensive coordinator. Should Howell produce against some of the league’s more formidable defenses — he had 300 passing yards and a rushing touchdown against the Cowboys , along with his second pick six in as many games — it would raise Bieniemy’s profile. Enough to enter Washington’s plans beyond this season? That’s among the exciting questions remaining.
Who are the 2024 building blocks?
Whatever the criteria, the number in consideration in this category has declined since the start of the season, not solely because the Commanders traded defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young . While wideout Terry McLaurin and defensive tackles Allen and Daron Payne have had down statistical seasons, they represent Washington’s 2024 core. From there, and putting aside the team’s free agents, well ...
Brian Robinson makes that short list after emerging as a capable three-down running back. Wideout Jahan Dotson also makes the cut, but maybe the staff will try generating momentum for Washington’s 2022 touchdown leader after a quiet second-year campaign. Sam Cosmi ’s transition to right guard has worked (one sack allowed), but offenses are picking on his fellow 2021 Day 2 draft selection, cornerback Benjamin St-Juste .
Incremental progress isn’t enough to celebrate linebacker Jamin Davis , the 2021 first-round pick. Perhaps it’s time to let the freak athlete loose in the pass rush, especially since the team is thin at defensive end.
Evaluating young players
Beyond Howell, there are others on the roster whose future with the organization will be determined after more homework. Without fully compromising the notion of competitiveness, the Commanders should lean into gathering more information by using these players, most of whom are younger, as much as possible.
Following a diminished role after a painful start to his rookie season, Forbes has played 75 and 78 percent of the defensive snaps in his last two complete games. There’s no reason the first-round pick should garner fewer reps whenever he returns from an elbow injury.
Ramp up the responsibility. Find his comfort level, whether that’s catering coverage with more zone calls or playing him more outside to the right of the formation, which is where, as The Athletic’s draft analyst Dane Brugler noted, Mississippi State used Forbes exclusively. It’s far too early for any “bust” talk. However, Forbes’ primary case to be a definite 2024 starter — even with Kendall Fuller headed to free agency — is based only on college tape and draft investment. These five games could reshape the assessment.
Last year, Washington spent a second-round pick on Mathis, only to lose the defensive tackle to a season-ending knee injury in Week 1. This season, a calf issue knocked him out until Week 8. He’s been a spare part since, playing just 71 defensive snaps in six games and no more than 18 in a game.
That’s hardly enough to gauge Mathis’ ceiling at the NFL level. That information is valuable for several reasons, including how the team will handle future contract negotiations with two-time Pro Bowler Jonathan Allen (who has zero guaranteed dollars remaining in the final two years of his deal).
Auxiliary pieces
We’re not talking about some open casting call, nor does this mean everyone warrants a look-see simply for a blank slate. But the team kept tight end Curtis Hodges on the roster only to never play the 6-foot-8 target. Is rookie running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. (one catch) capable of helping more if 2024 free agent Antonio Gibson doesn’t re-sign? Is fifth-round defensive end KJ Henry worthy of high-rotation snaps?
Maybe try practice-squad denizens like wideout/kick returner Kazmeir Allen , guard Mason Brooks or cornerback Nick Whiteside, knowing there could be openings at their position next year? You get the point.
Mystery on defense
The subplot here on defense involves the new play caller. Rivera and Del Rio are long-time coordinators who hooked up in Washington in 2020, but that doesn’t mean they see the X’s and O’s the same.
“Without getting into the specifics as far as game planning and stuff like that, we’re going to do things differently,” Rivera said hours after making the staff changes in consultation with Harris.
Let’s see what that means on game day and for some of the players mentioned above. Del Rio’s pass rush approach involved leaving four linemen in standard spots and dropping seven into coverage. Will Rivera shift personnel around to create advantageous matchups and use more blitzes? Using more man concepts than in previous seasons was part of Del Rio’s plan. Maybe Rivera reverts to a zone-heavy approach.
In short, will Rivera call plays based on what he hopes happens, or what is happening? And will it offer insight into (and for) the players?
(Photo of Sam Howell, left, and Eric Bieniemy: Jonathan Newton / The Washington Post via )
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