Commanders vs. Cowboys on Thanksgiving: Odds and best bets

A Thanksgiving tradition unlike any other. Turkey, pumpkin pie and the Dallas Cowboys (7-3). This year, they host NFC East rivals, the Washington Commanders (4-7). This is the first of two meetings this season, with the second time coming in Week 18 to close out the regular season.

WHOWashington Commanders vs. Dallas CowboysWHENThursday, November 23 at 4:30 p.m. ETWHEREAT&T Stadium | Arlington, TexasHOWCBS

When it comes to wagering on Thanksgiving games, it is not much different than betting on the NFL in general - other than the gift of three standalone games.

In this article, we will preview this NFC East matchup and give our best bets and predictions.

How will the Commanders handle this tough stretch?

Washington has lost four of its past five, and the schedule only gets tougher from here. Coming off a disappointing 12-point home loss to Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants, the Commanders will face Dallas twice, Miami and San Francisco in their final six games. Since starting the season 2-0, Washington is 2-7 with two losses to the Giants and one to the Bears. Those two teams have a combined three wins outside of defeating the Commanders.

The biggest challenge for Washington will likely be keeping Sam Howell safe in the pocket. Howell has been sacked 51 times, easily the most in the league. The Cowboys have the fifth-most sacks and are coming off a seven-sack performance against Carolina.

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Can the Cowboys continue their dominance?

The Cowboys have been the inverse of Washington, in a way, winning four of their past five. It has been simple handicapping the Cowboys this season, for the most part. They will beat up the bad teams (other than Arizona), and lose to elite teams. When playing at home, they are near-guaranteed to win. Their 12-game home winning streak dates back to last season.

Dallas is 4-6 in their past 10 Thanksgiving games, but two wins were over Washington. Dak Prescott led the Cowboys in each game and is 9-2 against the Commanders in his career. Following a slow start to the season, Prescott has quietly been one of the better quarterbacks in the league.

Best bet for Commanders vs. Cowboys

Washington Commanders: +12.5 (-110, BetMGM)

At first glance, this seems like an easy Cowboys smash. The Commanders are playing poorly and the Cowboys throttle inferior teams. However, 12.5 points is no small matter in the NFL and Washington has been surprisingly good against the spread this season. They are 6-1 ATS as underdogs in 2023 and 5-0 as road underdogs. In this spot, with this spread, it feels irresponsible to not back a desperate Washington team to cover on the road.

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Best prop bet for Cowboys vs. Commanders

Tony Pollard: Under 22.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)

Washington does struggle against the pass, but it is wide receivers who hurt them more. Pollard averages just under this number, but his average is inflated by one game with 80 receiving yards. He has been under this total in seven of 10 games this season, including his past four.

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Score prediction

Cowboys 30, Commanders 21

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