Cowboys analytics roundup: Things are very bad in Dallas

The Cowboys head into their bye week with a demoralizing loss to the Lions, one so bad that it's prompted some unusually strong responses from owner Jerry Jones. Morale is at an all-time low, at least among the fan base, but surely the emotionless analytics will offer some reason for confidence. Right?

In short, no. With all DVOA-based grades now several weeks into strength of schedule adjustments, and a fairly large sample size in general, we have a pretty good idea of what the Cowboys are right now. And to put it in simplest terms, they are a bad football team right now. Let's dig into it:

The Cowboys learned the hard way back in 2019 how much an inefficient special teams unit can cost you. Unfortunately, an elite special teams unit does not have the inverse effect. The Cowboys have been tops in the league in special teams DVOA all year, and by a wide margin, but they're so bad on offense and defense that it doesn't make a big enough difference.

The offense and defense both regressed this week, and the Cowboys as a team drop to 24th in DVOA. They're now one spot behind the Giants, who they beat just two weeks ago. Their DAVE, which combines preseason projections with actual results, has taken a huge hit as well. That reflects the reality of what this team is right now.

The EPA-based team tiers are even harsher on the Cowboys. They're in a similar spot to the Jaguars, who were the last team to win their first game of the year and appear headed for a tragic end to the season. Sound familiar?

The only teams behind the Cowboys here are the Raiders, Dolphins , Panthers, Patriots, and Browns . Four of those teams have had at least two different starting quarterbacks already, while Cleveland is desperate to get rid of theirs. This is horrible company to be in.

The number of things that are good about this offense right now is the same as the number of times the team has won at home this calendar year: none. They rank 25th pretty much across the board, except for "skyrocketing" up to 17th in EPA/rush.

This is a huge step back from where the offense was a year ago, when the pair of Mike McCarthy calling plays for Dak Prescott had them in the top ten in a majority of categories. There's no real explanation for the drop-off other than that the players and coaches just aren't performing well.

Dak Prescott's play has been bad this year. He's had some moments here and there where his brilliance has flashed, but his trademark consistency has been absent from the beginning. Only Titans quarterback Will Levis has thrown more interceptions, and Prescott leads the league in turnover worthy plays.

Prescott's adjusted completion rate of 69.7% - which filters out throwaways and dropped passes - also ranks dead last among qualifying quarterbacks. Again, he's had stretches in games where he looks like the guy that earned the league's first $60 million a year deal, but he hasn't done it consistently. The Cowboys need him to if they have even a sliver of hope to revive their season.

Anyone who reads these analytics roundups on a weekly basis knew the offensive line was on a strong upward trend heading into this past game. Only the Bengals had surrendered fewer pressures, and they looked likely to continue that against a Lions defense that was 28th in pressure rate.

Instead, they gave up pressure on 47.4% of Prescott's dropbacks. Since McCarthy became the head coach, the offensive line has only ever once given up more than that in a game. This was a new level of bad for the line, which was a shock considering where both teams were coming into this one.

On one hand, the pass rush continues to outperform its ability. Despite being so banged up, the Cowboys pressured Jared Goff on 34.4% of his dropbacks, the 13th-best mark in Week 6 and tied for their third-best of the year. It's not nearly good enough, but it's better than expected given who's rushing the passer.

On the other hand, there are no positives in sight for the run defense. Only two teams are loading up the box more than Mike Zimmer's unit right now, and it hasn't made a single difference. They have the lowest rate of stuffed runs and are giving up an extra 3.36 yards after contact per attempt. In other words, they're not getting disruption in the backfield and they're not bringing runners down on first contact. That's an apocalyptic combination for a defense.

If you're looking for some silver linings here, it's the two young linebackers. Damone Clark, who struggled a lot in coverage last year, was targeted five times with an average depth of target of 10 yards, but he gave up just one catch for six yards and had a pass breakup. Marist Liufau, starting in place of Eric Kendricks, also yielded an incompletion on his lone target, which came 20 yards downfield.

As for the actual defensive backs, yikes. Both Trevon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis failed to force a single incompletion, giving up a combined nine catches on nine targets. Amani Oruwariye at least forced two incompletions, but he also gave up the bomb to Tim Patrick on the opening drive that broke things open for the Lions. The secondary wasn't the worst part of this game, but it definitely didn't offer anything to feel good about either.