Craig Breslow explains surprising Nick Pivetta contract decision
The Boston Red Sox began their 2024-25 offseason with an unexpected decision. On Monday, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow extended a $21.05 million qualifying offer to right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta .
Pivetta has until November 19 to either accept or reject the qualifying offer. If he chooses to sign with another team in free agency, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation.
"We've been pretty outspoken about our need for pitching," said the Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer via Masslive's Christopher Smith.
Surprising move from the Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox's decision to extend the qualifying offer to Pivetta was surprising. The 31-year-old recorded a 4.14 ERA over 145.2 innings in 27 starts. Now, it would be unexpected if he declined the offer and didn't return to Boston's rotation for at least another season.
"Obviously we know Nick really well. This is ultimately where we landed. We'll see how it plays out from here."
"We definitely saw stretches of him just being dominant," Breslow added. "We can dissect the performance to a greater degree. But he's a guy who has performed well in this market. Has kind of like all of the underlying metrics. He gets a ton of swing and miss. He doesn't walk guys. He can get guys out pitching in the strike zone. So as you think about what a major league starting pitcher needs to do to be able to be successful, he has a lot of those ingredients."
Pivetta is unlikely to approach an average annual value (AAV) of $21.05 million on the free agent market. Most salary forecasts predicted he would secure a three-year deal with an AAV around $15-16 million.
While he has generally been durable, averaging just over 155 innings in the last four seasons, and is considered a solid back-end option, his record during that stretch stands at 35-41 with a 4.33 ERA and a 102 ERA+. This clearly indicates he is a league-average pitcher.
Nick Pivetta's value for the Red Sox
If Pivetta accepts the qualifying offer, he would provide a valuable asset to the pitching staff next year. His depth, versatility, and proven ability to compete in Boston would enhance the team. However, with Lucas Giolito, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford already in the rotation, the team needs a front-of-the-rotation pitcher rather than Pivetta.
Red Sox fans are concerned that if Pivetta accepts the qualifying offer, the team will have invested around $40 million in two starters who are far from being No. 1 options.
Giolito, as anticipated, opted to exercise his $19 million option for 2025 last week. However, he is recovering from significant elbow surgery and missed all of last season, leaving uncertainty about the workload he can handle in 2025.
Most free agents typically turn down qualifying offers, and Pivetta may follow suit. At 31, he might seek the security of a multi-year deal. Alternatively, he could find the $21.05 million offer too enticing to ignore.
If he accepts, the rotation will become even more crowded and, honestly, may not be significantly improved from last year.
Extending the qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta also brings fresh perspective to the rotation situation. During their end-of-year press conference on September 30, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow emphasized that improving the rotation is a top priority for the offseason.
Free agent left-handers like Max Fried and Blake Snell may come at a high price, but they would provide significant value to a Red Sox roster that currently features seven right-handed starting options.
The deadline to accept or decline the qualifying offer is set for 4 p.m. ET on November 19.
