Defending the ‘Minnesota Miracle’: Democrats face voters after pushing through bold progressive agenda

WINONA, Minnesota — When Minnesota Democrats took full control of the state Legislature two years ago, with protecting abortion rights at the top of their agenda, they vowed not to squander their chance to dramatically reshape the state.

They quickly passed measures enacting 20 weeks of paid medical and family leave for all workers, free tuition at state colleges for low-income households and more than $1 billion in funding for affordable housing. Republicans fumed over the cost of the progressive initiatives, among the most ambitious in the country.

"We were very united," Democratic House Speaker Melissa Hortman said in an interview. "Pedal to the metal. Let's get it done. Let's do everything we can do in two years."

Now, Minnesota voters will decide whether they want to continue down the path charted by Gov. Tim Walz and the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party — or hand power back to the GOP. The election will be the first test of the staying power of the "Minnesota Miracle," which Democrats have pushed as a model for the country despite their narrow electoral margins.

As Walz runs for vice president, touting his record in St. Paul, his party is fighting back home for a chance to continue trifecta control of government. The biggest battle is for control of the state House, where Democrats hold just a four-seat majority. But there's also a special state Senate election on Nov. 5 — to fill a seat held by a Democrat who is running for Congress — that could flip control of that chamber.

Republicans nationwide have dominated state legislatures since 2010, when they picked up a staggering 680 seats and flipped 20 legislative chambers. But Democrats have been making inroads in recent election cycles, including flipping chambers in Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and have their eyes this year on possible takeovers in Arizona and Wisconsin.

With Congress largely gridlocked due to divided control, state legislatures are increasingly becoming the epicenters of crucial policy debates — and that's likely to continue into next year no matter who prevails in the presidential contest.

Minnesota Republicans are eager to paint Democrats as wild-eyed liberals whose governing approach has alienated many voters in the purple state. They point out that spending has skyrocketed — general fund expenditures are poised to increase by 37 percent in the current biennium over the prior two-year period.

"It's been an object lesson of what happens when one party feels empowered to enact the most extreme agenda and please their very, very left wing partisan base," said David Hann, chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota and a former state senator. "It's the reason why Democrats are going to get rejected at the polls."

Must-win Winona

If Republicans are going to have a shot at flipping the state House, they're almost certainly going to need to win the seat currently held by DFL Rep. Gene Pelowski, who's retiring after 38 years. Pelowski is the last anti-abortion rights Democrat in the Legislature and frequently bucked his own caucus through the decades.

The district that he represents in southeastern Minnesota — centered on the college town of Winona — has increasingly tilted in favor of Republicans in recent years. Walz won the district two years ago with just 50.7 percent of the vote — compared to an 8-point margin of victory statewide.

The political trendline for Pelowski's district mirrors what's been happening statewide — and across the country — during the Trump era. Democrats are steadily gaining ground in the suburbs, while Republicans are dominating rural areas.

The GOP candidate is Aaron Repinski, who's serving his first term on the Winona City Council and owns a pair of small businesses in the area. He argues that Minnesota's onerous taxes are driving people out of the state, a particular problem for an area like Winona that sits just across the Mississippi River from Wisconsin.

Repinski and other Republicans are seizing on one particular example of state spending — the projected $730 million cost of renovating the State Office Building in St. Paul, where House members' offices are located — as a symbol of Democrats' profligacy, deriding it as a "palace for politicians."

"As a small business owner, you have to look at the bottom line," Repinski said, in reference to Democrats' spending. "You may want to have the newest, shiniest thing, but do you need that? I want a brand new truck. Can I afford it? No. Do I need it? No. My dented, rusty truck runs just fine."

Democrats counter that the State Office Building renovations were approved in 2022, when Republicans still controlled the state Senate, and that the price tag includes interest payments. They also point out that the building serves many purposes, including housing the secretary of state's office and the Legislative Reference Library.

"Most people who are living their lives on a day to day basis could give a shit about what happens with a State Office Building being remodeled," said Ken Martin, chair of the state DFL party. "How does it impact their lives? It really doesn't."

The Democratic candidate in the Winona district is Sarah Kruger, chief of staff at FairVote Minnesota, which advocates for ranked-choice voting, and a founder of the Southern Minnesota Democratic Action Group. She ran for the state Senate in 2020, losing to a three-term incumbent by 15 percentage points.

Kruger's political blueprint is to run up the vote in Democratic-leaning Winona — including boosting turnout among students at Winona State University — and minimize the drubbing she'll undoubtedly take in rural parts of the district.

"Rural people are very proud of the communities that they come from," Kruger said. "They want to live in places that aren't just surviving but thriving. How can we as Democrats put more money into rural areas, but then also share about what has been done so that there is a tangible connection that folks see in their everyday lives?"

Pelowski is backing Kruger, but he's still causing headaches for Democrats. Republicans have seized on comments he made in August that it would be good for Minnesota if Republicans won control of the House or Senate. "I think we do need divided government to simmer things down," he said.

But in an interview with POLITICO, Pelowski vigorously defended the legislative achievements of the past two years under total Democratic control. He touted major investments in aid to local governments, higher education and health care, and said he seldom encounters people who want to undo that spending.

"They still have a very good chance of maintaining a majority," Pelowski said of Democrats, "but it's going to be close, very close."

Suburban bellwether

The Twin Cities suburbs will also be a crucial battleground in determining whether Democrats maintain control of the House. DFL state Rep. Brad Tabke's district, centered around Shakopee, has flipped each of the last three cycles. He won it in 2018, lost the following cycle and then regained the seat in 2022.

The district has trended in favor of Democrats in recent cycles, with Walz taking 53 percent of the vote in 2022 and Tabke winning by more than 8 percentage points. The incumbent is emphasizing the investments that DFLers made and how that's playing out locally. The Shakopee Public Schools, he says, saw a $16 million funding boost, which enabled the district to raise pay for teachers and hourly workers like cleaning staff.

"People are seeing the difference in their lives on a day to day basis from what we did," said Tabke, who previously served as mayor of Shakopee. "Our 2023 session improved generations of Minnesotans' lives."

His GOP challenger is Aaron Paul, a police officer in nearby Bloomington and first time candidate. He argues that the funding increases for schools came with so many additional mandates — 65, by the Republicans' tally — that it did little to ease their financial struggles.

"Shakopee has different needs than Duluth and Crookston and all these different school districts," Paul said. "Give them money and get out of the way."

Paul professes to be a reluctant politician with little campaign savvy. But he believes the amount of money being poured into the district is an indication that he has a strong chance of prevailing.

"When the DFL started running attack ads on Labor Day, that's a huge sign that they did some polling and the polling hasn't been going well," Paul said. "It's either too close or I'm ahead."

Senate special favors Dems

The wildcard in the Minnesota Legislature races is the Senate. Just one seat is up for grabs, but it will determine which party controls the chamber. DFL Sen. Kelly Morrison resigned her seat representing the western Twin Cities suburbs in June to run for the congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Dean Phillips.

The race pits Democrat Ann Johnson Stewart, who previously served two years in the state Senate, against Kathleen Fowke, a real estate agent making her second bid for the seat. Most political observers believe Democrats are a solid favorite to retain the seat — Morrison defeated Fowke by more than 12 percentage points in 2022.

But DFL Chair Martin said Republicans are pouring resources into the race because it's potentially their easiest path to regaining some power.

"The whole Republican establishment is zeroing in on this one Senate seat because they can actually flip the trifecta," he said, "or at least flip one chamber and slow things down."

But Martin, who's chaired the DFL for more than a decade and is a vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, professes optimism that they'll be able to sustain their majorities in both chambers. That optimism is buoyed by the struggles of the state Republican party, which sustained a major financial and ethical scandal in 2021 that it's still trying to dig out from.

Hann said the problems were even worse than he understood when agreeing to lead the party three years ago. Even so, he believes that Republicans are poised for success, despite being badly outspent.

"People want common sense, and that's what Republicans have always believed in," Hann said. "We don't believe in creating utopias. We believe in creating practical solutions that are going to help ordinary people."