Democrats grow increasingly concerned as Trump wins battleground North Carolina
Former President Donald Trump won North Carolina Tuesday, according to an NBC News projection , giving the former president the first battleground victory of the night.
Though Trump carried the state on his way to losing the 2020 election, it was the one swing state Democrats had targeted as a potential pick up this year. The defeat there added to Democratic fears of a repeat of 2016, when Trump took the presidency.
"It's pretty concerning," a Democratic lawmaker said. "I just keep reminding myself that eight years ago all the trends in the first few hours showed Hillary winning, and then she didn't. But obviously this is not the return we were looking for."
"Have you ever been to a funeral? That would be a Mardi Gras compared to this," one veteran Democratic strategist said of the mood in the party right now.
One Democrat at a gathering of major Harris donors at a hotel in Washington, D.C., also likened the atmosphere to that of a funeral.
At the start of the night, Harris campaign officials were expressing optimism and saying they believed she would win. As the results rolled in, their mood was tempered.
Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign manager Jennifer O'Malley Dillon argued in an internal memo obtained by NBC News — put out before the North Carolina projection — that Harris still had a path to victory.
Decision 2024"While we continue to see data trickle in from the Sun Belt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes lies through the Blue Wall states," O'Malley Dillon wrote in reference to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
"Those of you who were around in 2020 know this well: It takes time for all the votes to be counted — and all the votes will be counted," she wrote. "That's how our system works. What we do know is this race is not going to come into focus until the early morning hours."
Republicans were already positioned to take control of the Senate — barring an unforeseen upset — with victories in Democratic-held seats in West Virginia and Ohio. And an NBC News exit poll Tuesday showed that the proportion of voters who identify as Democrats was down to 32% — the lowest point this century.
Meanwhile, a senior Trump adviser suggested that Trump might deliver remarks on the race in West Palm Beach, Florida — perhaps before midnight on the East Coast if the current trajectory continued.
A second aide told NBC News that they were hoping for more Sun Belt wins and that Trump's current narrow lead in Pennsylvania would provide good context for closing the night.
Roger Stone said Trump seemed "in a great mood and very upbeat" as the longtime friend and informal adviser arrived at the West Palm Beach Convention Center, where Trump will be expected to speak, after attending the former president's watch party at Mar-a-Lago.
The mood among Democratic operatives was very different, according to one longtime party fundraiser.
"They're f-ing freaking out," the fundraiser said. "How is it possible that we could lose to this guy? It's just malpractice." However, he added, he still held hope that Harris could pull out a victory.
At the presidential level, no state had yet flipped from one party to the other as of midnight, with Trump winning states like Kentucky and Indiana , and Harris winning Vermont and Massachusetts , according to NBC News projections. Trump also won Florida , which has shifted steadily to the right in recent election cycles.
Harris won Virginia, according to an NBC News projection, despite some late Republican hopes that the state could be within reach.
In addition to the White House, control of the House hung in the balance Tuesday night. But the narrow margins in the chamber, a series of West Coast races and the potential for slow vote-counting suggested a call on which party would win the majority could take some time.
The two presidential candidates' supporters split over the main issues facing the country on Election Day, differences that, in part, reflected where the candidates put their focus. NBC exit polling also showed significant demographic shifts in the two parties' coalitions.
Among the most pronounced changes : Latino men favored Trump by a 10-point margin, 54% to 44%, after that subset of the electorate backed the 2020 Democratic nominee, President Joe Biden, by a 23-point spread, 59% to 36%.
In a smaller shift — but a sizable one in its own right — Harris held a 25-point edge with Latino women, which was 14 percentage points less than Biden's 39-point spread over Trump in 2020.
At the same time, Trump saw attrition among suburban white women, carrying 51% of them this year, compared to 56% four years ago, according to the exit polls . Harris also got a boost from older voters, taking the 65-plus set 50 percent to 49 percent. That reversed Trump's 5-point 2020 win with senior citizens. Moreover, older voters made up 28 percent of the electorate, more than the 22 percent they constituted in 2020.
On the issues, most Harris voters rated democracy as their top issue, while most Trump voters said the economy mattered most to them. In all, 35% of voters placed democracy at the top of their list, while 31% said the economy and 14% said abortion.
Fifty-six percent of Harris voters put democracy first, while 21% named abortion as their highest priority and 13%picked the economy. Fifty-one percent of Trump voters saw the economy as the biggest issue, 20% named immigration and 12% said democracy.
Harris promised that she would restore abortion rights that were left vulnerable to restrictions by the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision. Trump said abortion decisions belong in the hands of states, where they now reside, but that he favors bans that exempt cases of rape, incest and endangerment to the life of the mother.
In a sign of how the politics of abortion have shifted now that states are able to impose more limits, more Trump voters think abortion should be legal now than they did in 2020, according to the early exit polls. Back then, 26% of Trump voters said abortion should be illegal. On Tuesday, that number was 38%.
Overall, 51% of voters said in 2020 that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. But now, 66% say that. At the same time, the percentage of voters who believe abortion should be illegal in all cases dropped from 17% in 2020 to 6% this year.
With North Carolina going to Trump, Harris' most plausible path to winning 270 electoral votes — and becoming the first woman elected president — still ran through the "Blue Wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, along with Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Trump, who would become the first defeated president to reclaim the White House since Grover Cleveland in 1892, would hit the magic number by adding Georgia and Pennsylvania — or Georgia, Arizona and either Michigan or Wisconsin — to his column.
Both candidates and their campaigns expressed confidence in the closing days that they were on track to win.
"The momentum is on our side," Harris said at her final rally, in Philadelphia, Monday night.
"I think we're going to have a very big victory today," Trump said as he cast his ballot in West Palm Beach, Fla., Tuesday afternoon.
Despite their sense of success, 72% of voters said in NBC News exit polls that they are either angry or dissatisfied with the state of the country, with only 26% reporting that they are satisfied or enthusiastic about it.
There were signs of demographic shifts in the electorate in the early exit polls. Trump's popularity waned with white voters while it ticked up with Black and Latino voters. In 2020, 57% of white voters viewed Trump favorably, as did 38%of Latino voters and 10% of Black voters. This year, only 49% of white voters said they saw Trump favorably, while his numbers with Latino and Black voters rose to 42% and 14%, respectively.
There had been no reports of major, widespread issues related to vote as of Thursday evening, though many states had hours left before polls closed.
The most notable issue came in Georgia, where bomb threats directed at polling sites caused some temporary evacuations but did not appear to dramatically affect the vote. A dozen precincts will stay open a bit later to account for the interruption, according to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
There have been no signs of major cyberattacks, a concern after the 2016 presidential election. And snafus with scanning or counting ballots have been mostly minor and expected.
A software malfunction prevented voters in Cambria County, Pennsylvania, from scanning their ballots early this morning, but voting there was extended until 10 p.m. Additionally, more than 30,000 absentee and early ballots in Milwaukee are being recounted after officials noticed that vote tabulator machines weren't properly closed.
Swing state voters have been inundated with billions of dollars in advertising between the campaigns of the two presidential candidates, Senate and House hopefuls, and outside groups determined to affect the balance of power in Washington.
Senate Democrats held a two-seat edge, 51 to 49, heading into Tuesday, but the Republican victories in Ohio and West Virginia pulled Republicans closer to a majority.
In the House, Republicans held a four-seat advantage. The Cook Report favored Democrats to take four seats — one in Alabama, two in New York and one in Nebraska — from Republican hands. But one Democratic-held seat in Michigan leaned toward the GOP, according to the Cook report, which rated 12 Republican-held seats and 10 Democratic-held seats as toss-ups.
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