Democrats’ Israel dilemma

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In today’s edition ... What we’re watching: Hearing on debt commission ... It’s open season in New Hampshire for Democrats not named Joe Biden ... but first ...

On the Hill

Democrats’ Israel dilemma

Senate Democrats are internally debating aid for Israel as they face growing pressure from the party’s base to abandon its traditionally unconditional support for the country, whose handling of the war in Gaza has been fiercely criticized.

In the days following the Oct. 7 attack in which Hamas militants killed about 1,200 people in Israel and took more than 200 hostages, many Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike called for the immediate passage of $14 billion in aid for Israel requested by President Biden.

Now, there’s concern that the aid is riddled with moral and political challenges for Democrats, who are raising red flags about Israel’s war tactics, which have killed more than 13,300 people in Gaza in the campaign to eradicate Hamas.

So some Democrats have called for placing conditions on military aid to Israel as a way to hold it accountable without dropping their support for the Israeli government.

“The United States has traditionally provided large sums of money to Israel, with no conditions ... I think a growing number of members of Congress believe that that has got to change,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who first called for conditions on the aid nearly two weeks ago, told us. “The American people are deeply concerned, in many cases outraged, by the kind of civilian loss and want to make sure that policy is changed.”

Sanders said it’s too early to say how he would vote if conditions aren’t placed on the military aid.

Sanders’s conditions include “an end to indiscriminate bombing,” an end to violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and a commitment from Israel to peace talks for a two-state solution.

Democrats' debate

Democrats spent a portion of their weekly lunch on Tuesday debating the issue.

Democratic lawmakers have long been staunch supporters of Israel, but policies embraced by its right-wing government — including settler expansion in the West Bank, checkpoints that limit Palestinian movements and the effective abandonment of a two-state solution — have led some to question the continuation of unconditional support.

Democrats who support guardrails around the Israel aid argue that they would provide credibility to Biden when privately pressuring the Israeli government on its policies. Democrats who oppose conditions say the limits would undermine the president if the party isn’t united.

Biden would probably have to certify that Israel is meeting those conditions, said one Democratic strategist: “That puts him in a bad place domestically, it puts him in a bad place with the Arab world, and it puts him in a bad place with the Israelis. It hurts Joe Biden.”

Seeking unity

Democrats opposed to conditioning aid are working closely with the Israelis to keep the party on track.

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) organized a presentation Tuesday with the Israeli Embassy to show images from the Oct. 7 attack. Israeli Ambassador Michael Herzog attended and spoke to the 40 senators there.

The horrific images shook members. Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he had to sit alone in his office for 30 minutes after the presentation. He has not yet said whether he would support conditions on Israel aid, and he will deliver a “major speech” about antisemitism in the United States from the Senate floor today.

Monday night, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), who opposes conditioning aid, organized a briefing by officials from the Israel Defense Forces to talk about the status of the war and its next steps.

The Israeli officials insisted they are being careful not to harm or kill Palestinian civilians.

“There was some skepticism,” one senator who attended the briefing said.

“They say they have done everything possible to avoid killing civilians,” another Democratic senator said of the Israeli government. “In fact, that is not true.”

Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.), one of three senators who have called for a cease-fire, said that he is undecided on placing conditions on aid but that he views violations of “the Leahy Law” as “an extremely important consideration.”

The Leahy Law — named for former senator Patrick J. Leahy — prohibits the United States from funding foreign security forces if they violate international human rights laws.

The prospects for aid

No Democrat is willing to say that aid for Israel is unnecessary, but the urgency has waned.

Israel already receives $3.8 billion in annual defense aid from the United States and has a well-stocked, powerful military. Democrats say there is greater urgency for Ukraine, whose leaders say they are running out of firepower.

Providing aid for Israel is symbolically important.

“I think the aid for Israel is a demonstration of American support,” Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who, on Tuesday, became the third senator to call for a cease-fire.

But aid for Israel has become politically challenging for Democrats. In the days after Oct. 7, public support for Israel was high, but as images of civilian destruction in Gaza mounted, support dropped.

J Street, a liberal group that supports Israel but is often critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, favors restrictions on aid to Israel but hasn’t endorsed the proposals advanced by Sanders and other Democrats.

“We’re communicating to members of Congress that we would like to see clear language in the supplemental that makes clear that this cannot just be a blank check,” said Logan Bayroff, a J Street spokesman.

Republicans, meanwhile, are unlikely to support any conditions for Israel. Schumer is tying Israel aid to Ukraine aid to pressure Republicans to back Ukraine funding, but Republicans have conditioned Ukraine funding on border security, making the entire border security supplemental difficult to pass.

What we're watching

On the Hill

The House Budget Committee will hold a hearing this morning on one of the top priorities of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.): setting up a commission to tackle the rapid growth of the federal debt.

The committee held a similar hearing last month, but this one is expected to be better attended after Moody’s lowered its outlook for the federal government’s debt this month, prompting Johnson to call for creating a debt commission.

“This is in response to a direct ask from the speaker,” a Republican committee aide said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss an upcoming hearing. The aide described the hearing as the first step toward creating Johnson’s commission.

Lawmakers will evaluate three bipartisan debt commission bills — one from Reps. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) and Steve Womack (R-Ark.), one from Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Scott Peters (D-Calif.), and one from Sens. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah) — with the aim of figuring out which has the most support.

Creating commissions to propose ways to rein in deficits is a Washington tradition, but the failure of past commissions has created skeptics in both parties that setting up another one will solve anything.

Rep. Brendan Boyle (Pa.), the top Democrat on the committee, said in the hearing last month that he was “more than a little bit skeptical that a commission would work, just frankly given the past history of the last dozen years.”

Members of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus have also questioned the idea.

“I’m of the mind that we need to increase the authority and role of Congress rather than delegate it to unelected entities,” Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.), a Freedom Caucus member who’s on the committee, told us. “But I’m willing to listen and see what transpires” at the hearing.

“What it cannot be is trying to make it look like we’re doing something when Congress doesn’t have a willingness to implement the reforms that would be necessary to save the country fiscally,” said Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), another Freedom Caucus member on the committee.

Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Tex.) is expected to acknowledge that a commission can’t fix everything.

“While we understand a fiscal commission is not a panacea to fix all our financial problems, a commission does offer a productive, depoliticized forum for educating the public and identifying consensus solutions for addressing our growing deficits and long-term unfunded liabilities,” Arrington is expected to say, according to a copy of his opening remarks shared with The Early.

At the Supreme Court

Today, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments for

At issue is whether the agency’s key enforcement mechanism against securities fraud — administrative enforcement proceedings — is unconstitutional. It is the latest legal challenge of the federal agency’s regulatory power and one of at least eight cases that the court is set to review this term from the conservative U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit.

In Colorado

Biden today is heading to the district represented by Republican Lauren Boebert to tour a wind-tower manufacturer.

We’re watching how aggressively he goes after Boebert, a House Freedom Caucus member who nearly lost reelection last year in a district former president Donald Trump won by eight points in 2020. The White House repeatedly signaled Biden would criticize her by name.

The campaign

It’s open season in New Hampshire for Democrats not named Joe Biden

Our colleague Kara Voght is out this morning with a look at the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire and how challengers Dean Phillips are competing for a symbolic victory. Here’s an excerpt:

“New Hampshire Democrats are feeling confused, dismayed, betrayed,” Kara writes. “They’re being shunned by the national party and their sitting commander in chief. South Carolina, not New Hampshire, is now the party’s first-in-the-nation primary. Joe Biden, declining to file in the Granite State to respect the new run of show, will not appear on the ballot when they go to the polls in January.”

“So on a bright Saturday earlier this month, a few dozen Democrats did what many have done in the throes of distress: They turned to Marianne Williamson, the new age high priestess and Democratic presidential candidate.”

“Williamson is one of 21 non-Biden candidates who will appear on New Hampshire’s Democratic primary ballot on Jan. 23. Another is John Vail, a New Hampshire activist whose sole intention is to offer a ballot line to voters who’d rather vote against money in politics than for any particular candidate. Another is Vermin Supreme, a performance artist and perpetual presidential prospect known for wearing a rubber boot on his head.”

“Another is Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), a primary latecomer nudged into the race by Biden’s old age and bleak approval ratings. Phillips turned up in New Hampshire that same week with affirmations of Granite State grievance similar to Williamson’s.”

“Does of this matter?,” Kara writes. “Biden is an incumbent president running for reelection. Barring an emergency, he is going to be the Democratic Party’s nominee — with or without New Hampshire’s blessing.”

“But what if, under the glare of the national media on Jan. 23, Williamson, Phillips or anyone else manage to make off with New Hampshire’s tiny blue log tote of primary delegates?”

The Media

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