Despite Trump Wins, GOP Sees Handful of Senate Races Slip Away

From the Dispatch Politics on The Dispatch

Happy Friday! Unless you're a Democratic Party insider, in which case you're just beginning to get sucked into a recriminations spiral .

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President-elect Donald Trump will appoint senior adviser Susie Wiles, a mastermind behind his successful bid, to be his White House chief of staff, the transition team announced Thursday. "Susie Wiles just helped me achieve one of the greatest political victories in American history, and was an integral part of both my 2016 and 2020 successful campaigns," Trump said in a release. "Susie is tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected. Susie will continue to work tirelessly to Make America Great Again. It is a well deserved honor to have Susie as the first-ever female Chief of Staff in United States history. I have no doubt that she will make our country proud." Wiles in 2016 managed Trump's Florida operations, but his reelection campaign cut ties with her in 2019 after she clashed with Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Republicans have secured the majority in the Senate by at least two seats, but the winner in some races remained unclear. The Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Republican challenger Dave McCormick on Thursday, though Decision Desk HQ and the New York Times did not. McCormick's campaign declared victory hours before the AP's call, while incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey insisted there were more votes to be counted. Meanwhile, Decision Desk HQ was the only one of the three results watchers to call the Nevada Senate race in favor of incumbent Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen on Thursday. Rosen has yet to declare victory, and GOP challenger Sam Brown has yet to concede. Meanwhile, Arizona's Senate race remained too close to call, though Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego led Republican nominee Kari Lake by 1.7 points with about three-quarters of the vote in.

Control of the House of Representatives was still uncertain, but Republicans remained in a good position to hold their majority. The Associated Press and the New York Times had the GOP in the lead 211-199, while Decision Desk HQ put the tally at 216-204. Among the races that none of the three had called were Alaska's at-large district and a collection of swing seats in Arizona, Washington, Oregon, and California.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed on Thursday conceded the race for her reelection bid to fellow Democrat Daniel Lurie, who ran on a tough-on-crime platform. Though more ballots are left to count, Lurie led 56.2 percent to 43.8 percent in the final round of the city's ranked-choice voting. Lurie, a Levi Strauss heir, promised to expand San Francisco's police force and stop open-air drug markets in the city, as the condition of public safety in San Francisco deteriorated under Breed's governance.

How the GOP Lost Senate Races in States That Went Red

A brutal election for the Democratic Party nonetheless saw Republicans miss at least three opportunities for Senate pickups in White House battleground states where President-elect Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris.

The Republican Party still claimed the Senate majority after four years out of power, flipping seats in Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania (Democrats are still contesting the outcome in the Keystone State.) On balance, the 2024 election is a Senate GOP success story. But in the swing states of Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin—and likely Arizona—where Trump won relatively comfortably, albeit closely, Democratic Senate candidates and incumbents outpaced their Republican challengers.

Thus, the scope of the Republicans' November 5 sweep is more modest than it might have been, as is the size of the party's new Senate majority : 52 seats, compared to 48 for the Democrats, when the two independents who caucus with them are factored in. So, how did Democrats in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin avoid being dragged down by Harris' loss to Trump?

A Republican operative who worked on Senate races during the just-concluded election cycle chalked up the outcome to money—specifically, a lack thereof.

"Republicans surged post-Labor Day, but the pummeling candidates took over the summer due to the resource disadvantage at the candidate level meant a few came up short," this operative said, noting that there was a reason Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, the National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman, was "screaming from the rooftop that Republican candidates needed more money or they were going to lose winnable races."

But the Republican strategists Dispatch Politics spoke with in these battlegrounds offered additional explanations for the divergent results—explanations that point to flaws in Harris' execution as a candidate and, simultaneously, Trump's strengths.

In Michigan's contest for an open seat, Trump defeated Harris 49.8 percent to 48.3 percent even as Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, edged out former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers 48.6 percent to 48.3 percent. A Republican strategist based in the Wolverine State suspects the difference-makers were women, specifically: "moms."

"It feels like this came down to moms, especially more moderate moms—those who are paying the grocery bills and trying to figure out if they can take the kids to Disney World this year or if that trip needs to wait," this Republican insider told Dispatch Politics on Thursday. "Trump had just enough of an edge with them to make the difference. Or maybe more correctly, they decided Harris was not for them."

In Nevada, Trump has likely defeated Harris 50.8 percent to 47.4 percent, which would make him the first Republican to win the state since 2004. Yet Sen. Jacky Rosen, the Democratic incumbent, held off Republican Sam Brown 47.8 percent to 46.5 percent. The Silver State was problematic for Democrats from the get-go, when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee, with voters there feeling especially burdened by inflation and high housing costs. So, Rosen fighting through top-of-the-ticket headwinds and winning a second term was hardly inevitable.

A veteran Republican strategist in Nevada told us the outcomes in both the presidential and Senate contests boiled down to who "connected" with voters, and who did not.

"I just don't think Brown ever connected here. He's not from here and has no relationships. His campaign did nothing to correct that. Rosen ran a really good campaign, her ads were spot-on and she connects, especially to women," this GOP insider said. "Rosen was relatable and solid to indies. I just don't think Kamala was, whether an extension of bad Biden policies or just because she personally didn't connect."

In Wisconsin, Trump finished ahead of Harris 49.7 percent to 48.9 percent. But Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin outlasted Republican challenger Eric Hovde, 49.4 percent to 48.5 percent.

A Republican strategist with Wisconsin ties attributed this split ticket outcome to Baldwin being a better candidate, and running a better campaign "on the issues" that mattered to voters, than did Harris.

"Donald Trump is a known quantity and Wisconsinites knew exactly what they were voting for, whereas Kamala Harris had vague policy positions and voters couldn't decipher whether she was a newly converted moderate or a hard-core progressive," this Republican insider explained. "Given the choices, Wisconsinites went for who they knew best rather than a somewhat unknown quantity."

The only misstep Republicans made in Arizona, party insiders told us, unsurprisingly, was nominating Kari Lake in the first place. Voters were repelled by her refusal to concede her loss in the 2022 governor's race and insistence that the race was stolen. Trump has done the same regarding his loss to Biden in 2020, but voters did not hold that against him.

"Her continued election skepticism really turned off a lot of people," a GOP strategist in Arizona said. "Trump won because of the economy." Votes in the Senate race are still being tallied, but Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic nominee, is expected to emerge on top.

Meanwhile, the Republican candidate for Senate was successful in riding Trump's coattails to victory in Pennsylvania. There, Trump topped Harris 50.5 to 48.5 while Republican Dave McCormick ousted Sen. Bob Casey 49 percent to 48.5 percent. How did McCormick avoid the fate of his fellow Republicans in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, despite, like them, performing worse than Trump overall?

"We were the most disciplined in running against Kamala," a Republican operative involved in that contest said.

This operative cited a video the McCormick campaign produced as the template for a message they hammered home from the very beginning of Harris taking over for Biden at the top of the ticket. The spot highlighted Harris' statements from her 2019 campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, in which she backed liberal policy positions, and relentlessly worked to tie Casey to that version of the vice president, versus the more moderate candidate she attempted to style herself as in this race.

Democrats Bet Their Hopes on Abortion. It Didn't Pay Off.

How consequential an issue was abortion for the Democratic Party in 2024? Not as much as the Harris campaign was expecting and hoping. That's the conclusion John McCormack draws from the initial elections results in a new piece for the website today , especially when analyzed alongside the results of the 2022 midterm elections:

McCormack argues the poor performances of Republican Senate candidates in 2022 obscured the relative strength of the GOP in the first post-Dobbs election. Other Republicans on the ballot that year, even those strongly associated with supporting more restrictions on abortion, performed well:

After years of decisive pro-choice wins on state ballot initiatives and referenda, that trend continued into 2024 even as Trump and the GOP won big. And yet:

Read the whole thing here .