Diamondbacks' nightmare seeding scenario, matchup for 2024 MLB Playoffs
The Arizona Diamondbacks forced the MLB world to board a drama-filled and highly intoxicating thrill ride that people did not know they needed during the 2023 playoffs. There were plenty of fans who refused to get swept up in the merriment, using the Snakes' National League Pennant victory to point out the flaws of the current postseason format.
Catching fire at the right time is a staple of baseball and a major reason why the sport boasts one of the more exciting postseasons around. Though, an 84-win ballclub is not supposed to oust a vastly more talented team like the Los Angeles Dodgers or Philadelphia Phillies. The Diamondbacks' run illustrated the importance of simply surviving the regular season. But they knew their methods would not yield the same improbable results in 2024.
Instead of reveling in a surprise World Series appearance and just being content, the front office made several moves in the offseason to position itself for another championship pursuit. Arizona has still been subjected to lulls and dizzying fluctuation, but its winter aggression is seemingly paying off. With six regular season games left in 2024, the team has already claimed 87 victories.
Torey Lovullo and company cannot comfortably pack their bags for a playoff trip by any means, but they are proving they are not just a good story, or a product of the modified system. The Diamondbacks are aiming to be an NL fixture for the next several years. Another prosperous October would solidify their status as fierce threats rather than a one-year nuisance.
But make no mistake, this group still has to whip up some postseason magic and maybe lure Lady Luck into the desert for a night or two. The reigning NL kings could benefit greatly by avoiding one specific obstacle.
Diamondbacks' biggest nightmare draw is the Padres
The San Diego Padres have been a volatile franchise in recent years. President of baseball operations AJ Preller's undying determination to go star-searching has produced both exceptional and disastrous results. Individual accolades are sometimes brought in at the expense of club chemistry, which as 2023 showed, can result in painfully unmet expectations.
Preller kick-started a sizable renovation project in the offseason, but he did not take a hammer to the entire foundation. Although San Diego bid farewell to superstar Juan Soto, it added strikeout machine Dylan Cease, dependable right-handed pitcher Michael King, homer-happy Kyle Higashioka and, eventually, soon-to-be three-time batting champion Luis Arraez in trades while also reuniting with a reinvigorated Jurickson Profar via free agency.
Promoting Mike Shildt to the managerial position has worked brilliantly, with the Padres exuding a completely different aura in 2024. They continued to invest at the trade deadline, strengthening an already reliable bullpen by acquiring All-Star reliever Tanner Scott. Their gambles are paying off, the most notable one being the insertion of Rookie of the Year favorite Jackson Merrill into center field on a full-time basis.
And we cannot forget about the Padres' mainstays . Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. are looking more like their old selves following underwhelming offensive showings last season, while five-time All-Star Yu Darvish regains his form after dealing with a groin injury for much of the year. The pieces are fitting together quite nicely right now on San Diego, and that spells trouble for teams that are still working through some issues.
Translation: the Diamondbacks do not want to play their divisional foe in the NL Wild Card Series. They might be too exposed at that time.
Arizona has too many question marks on its pitching staff
The D-backs' starting pitching rotation was alarmingly thin going into last year's playoffs, with the young and largely unproven Brandon Pfaadt serving as the No. 3 behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The bullpen was loaded with erratic arms and high ERAs. Logic indicated that the staff would eventually implode, especially when confronted with the Phillies and Dodgers' imposing lineups. Torey Lovullo knew just what buttons to press , however.
The skipper instilled confidence in his pitchers and did an exemplary job of managing them throughout that mystical October. Although he should theoretically have more talent and depth at his disposal in the 2024 postseason, Lovullo must rediscover that magical touch if Arizona is going to overcome its glaring limitations once again.
Flashy free agent acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez have each endured hardship since venturing into the desert, Gallen looked shaky in his last two starts and Kelly left Saturday's game with a calf cramp. The Diamondbacks' relief pitchers, aside from midseason addition AJ Puk, are also unreliable right now.
Justin Martinez has the knockout-fastball to overpower hitters in big games, but the 22-year-old's control and command issues are beginning to reflect in the scoreboard. Fellow right-hander Ryan Thompson and southpaw Joe Mantiply, both of whom received plenty of work during the 2023 run, are floundering as well. They gave up a combined five runs in Sunday's 10-9 loss versus the Milwaukee Brewers (Diamondbacks led 8-0 in third inning).
Despite that frightening collapse in American Family Field, the Snakes can survive their deficiencies against the NL Central champions and slither their way past the Wild Card round. The Brewers' lineup contains intriguing versatility and speed, similar to last season's Goliath-slaying Arizona club, but it is also rife with inexperience. The Padres are scarier.
D-backs need to fix their issues before facing Padres
Arizona has beaten San Diego in three of the last four matchups between the teams and will have three more chances to best its NL West rival at the end of next week. That being said, based on how the Diamondbacks' pitchers are presently performing, the Padres are a dangerous draw in the opening round of the playoffs.
Until some combination of Gallen, Kelly, Rodriguez or Montgomery can prove that they are at their best, this club should benefit most by facing either the Brewers, New York Mets or even the Atlanta Braves. San Diego is the only team with a better collective batting average than Arizona (.265 to .264) and also possesses multiple relievers like Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott and Jeremiah Estrada who can suffocate hitters in the later innings. It can match the defending NL champs' biggest strength and attack their biggest weakness. That is quite nightmarish, no?
The Padres contain uncertainties in their starting rotation, to be fair, but Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez and the supremely clutch Jackson Merrill lead a capable offense that can hurt pitchers in multiple ways. In high-scoring showdowns, the bullpen will become a crucial factor. While history proves that the Diamondbacks have the arms to prevail, I cannot ignore what I am seeing at this moment.
A get-right series does not exist in the playoffs, but a lineup with Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, the returning Lourdes Gurriel Jr., a rejuvenated Joc Pederson, an underrated Geraldo Perdomo, a surging Gabriel Moreno and the sublimely swift Jake McCarthy can push the team through a series.
After that, though, the Snakes will have to be moving at full force if they want to outlast the rest of the field for a second year in a row.
