Dire projections ahead of UN climate talks

Sunlight filters through a cloud of dust last month on a farm near Allerton, Ill. | Joshua A. Bickel/AP

Strong global headwinds are blowing against the United Nations climate talks that start next week in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Populist backlash against green policies, oil giants’ plans to expand production and the war in Gaza are all threatening to complicate countries’ ambitious pledges to reduce emissions, write Karl Mathiesen, Charlie Cooper and Zack Colman . And then there’s the specter of a second Trump presidency.

The setbacks arrive as a new U.N. report released Monday warns that the world is on track for a catastrophic 3 degrees Celsius of warming compared with the preindustrial era, blowing past the 2-degree target set by the Paris climate accord.

“The plans to achieve net zero are increasingly under attack,” said former U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May, who set her country’s goal of reaching climate neutrality into law.

The pushback is straining climate-conscious governments both in the developed and developing worlds.

Center-right parties in Europe are turning against a speedy transition to cleaner energy, citing cost concerns. In the U.S., Republicans have vowed to gut out the Inflation Reduction Act, and the possibility exists that Donald Trump could abandon international climate pacts if he retakes the White House in 2024.

The news Sunday that a far-right climate denier, Javier Milei, won Argentina’s presidency shows that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can be a hard sell in developing nations as well. Facing rising fuel and food prices, governments in poorer nations are struggling to vouch for costly climate policies — especially if they don’t get international aid to help them with it.

The war in Gaza is also likely to spill onto the climate talks in Dubai, with officials expected to devote time discussing the regional security situation. President Joe Biden decided to skip the summit, in part due to the war between Israel and Hamas .

“Volatility doesn’t usually help raise ambition,” said Kalee Kreider, a former adviser to Vice President Al Gore.

The fossil fuel industry, meanwhile, is betting against a swift transition to renewable energy. Major oil giants like BP and Shell are investing billions of dollars into expanding production capability while walking back on their pledges to cut emissions.

Not all bad news

But others note that the world has made progress in recent years toward cutting carbon pollution.

The cost of wind and solar declined rapidly in the last decade, making up more than 80 percent of new generation capacity in 2022. U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are falling, while China’s may have begun to decline several years ahead of Beijing’s schedule.

Some climate scenarios, including one from the recent National Climate Assessment, show that curbing warming well below 2 degrees is still possible , albeit a daunting task.

“No year over the past three decades has been free of political, economic or health challenges,” said former U.N. climate chief Patricia Espinosa. “Time is a luxury we no longer have — if we ever did.”

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Nov. 27.

Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Jordan Wolman breaks down how the Securities and Exchange Commission is falling behind in the global climate disclosure race.

Power Centers

Hydrogen arrives at gas pipes
A Utah utility company is blending hydrogen into natural gas distributed to heat homes and fire up stoves, triggering a broader debate around efficient and safe use of the major clean fuel source that’s seen as crucial to cutting emissions, writes Christine Mui .

Supporters hail the practice as a demonstration of the versatility of hydrogen, which Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm heralded as a “Swiss Army knife” of zero-carbon solutions that can be deployed for everything from heating homes to powering heavy industries. But environmentalists and some industry experts criticize the use for its potential health impacts and recommend using cheaper, low-emission options like electric heat pumps.

Washington and Beijing still at odds on climate policies
China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, last week agreed on a deal with the United States to cut emissions more rapidly, but a wide gap still persists between Chinese climate policies and those of the U.S., write Sara Schonhardt and Zack Colman .

The U.S. wants to ramp up domestic supply chains for cleaner industries and to pressure Beijing to quickly phase out coal-fired power plants and to pay for an international climate fund. But China sees the U.S. position as a threat to its economic growth and energy security, saying developed nations already pledged to contribute more for climate finance in 2015 after the Paris talks.

The state of the planet in 10 numbers
This year’s United Nations climate talks start with a series of alarming events at the backdrop, including record-breaking heat waves that turned 2023 into the most scorching year in history. A deep dive into 10 metrics that show the current state of our planet reveals what is at stake at the U.N. summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, write Chelsea Harvey and Zia Weise .

In Other News

Climate’s 1 percent problem: The richest 1 percent of humanity is responsible for more carbon emissions than the poorest 66 percent , a new report found.

Energy trajectory: The power sector is the world’s single biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, but the energy mix across the world is changing rapidly as the cost of renewable power plummets.

Mind the gap: Ajay Banga, the new World Bank chief born and raised in India, has ties to the developing world and corporate finance . Could he close the climate policy divide between developing and developed worlds?

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Brandon Shores power plant in Baltimore is shown. | abriggs21/iStock

Maryland’s exit from coal-fired power could come as soon as 2025 , but that could make the state’s power grid unstable because new transmission projects won’t come online until 2028.

Billions of dollars of Inflation Reduction Act money meant to tackle drought along the Colorado River looks likely to make it more expensive to clinch a broader water deal critical to economies in several states.

The main grid operator in Texas canceled a proposal to revive old fossil fuel plants ahead of winter , potentially leaving the state at risk of power outages in the event of a winter storm.

That’s it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.