Donald Trump Favorite in Five Key Swing States: Bookmaker
Donald Trump is the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election in five out of seven key battleground states, according to odds provided by a leading betting company.
Betfair, a British betting exchange, thinks Trump is most likely to win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, although the bookmaker has Democrat Kamala Harris as favorite in Michigan and Wisconsin. Overall Betfair is offering odds of 4/6 (60 percent) on a Trump victory against 6/4 (40 percent) for Harris.
Polling suggests the election is on a knife edge, with an analysis of recent surveys by election website FiveThirtyEight as voters begin to mark their ballot papers giving Harris a 1.2-point lead in the popular vote. Overall FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50 percent chance of victory , with the Electoral College system meaning she could win the popular vote but lose overall.
Betfair gives Trump a 73 percent chance of taking Arizona's 11 Electoral College votes, compared to 27 percent for Harris. The bookmaker also has Trump leading in Nevada, with a 58 percent chance of victory against 42 percent for the current vice president. Further east, the Republican nominee is Betfair's favorite in Georgia and North Carolina, with 64 percent against 36 percent and 63 percent versus 37 percent respectively. In Pennsylvania, which has 19 Electoral College votes, the betting exchange favors Trump favored with a 52 percent chance of victory compared with 48 percent for Harris.
However Harris does lead the chances in the Rust Belt states of Michigan and Wisconsin, by 63 percent to 37 percent and 59 percent to 41 percent respectively, according to Betfair.
Newsweek contacted the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidential election campaigns for comment via email.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek: "Trump is the favorite in five of the seven swing states that will likely determine the outcome of this election.
"Betfair Exchange punters fancy him to win Pennsylvania, which most commentators believe will be the key with its 19 Electoral College votes. He's also ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina."
Rosbottom continued: "A whopping £187 million ($243 million) has been wagered on the outcome of this election in total so far, but we're just getting started.
"As voting closes and the results start to trickle in, we're expecting even more money to come in on the market and the odds to move further, one way or the other."
In an analysis released just hours before polls opened on Tuesday polling expert Nate Silver gave Harris a 50 percent chance of winning the presidential race, versus 49.6 percent for Trump and 0.3 percent for a tie. In the event of a tie the contest would go to the newly elected House of Representatives, which Silver predicts would back the Republican candidate.
A YouGov survey published on Saturday found 67 percent of American voters believed it was either somewhat or very likely that Trump would refuse to concede if Harris was officially declared the winner. This figure included 55 percent of those identifying as Republicans .
