Election 2024: How your vote could affect the balance of power in Ohio's Statehouse
Oct. 5—Ohio voters will have the opportunity to impact the balance of power in the Statehouse — and the future of the state's GOP supermajority — in two ways in November.
Most immediately, voters will decide state House and Senate races using new boundaries put in place last year that make some local races more winnable for Democrats.
But also on the ballot is an amendment to the Ohio Constitution that could permanently change how such boundaries are drawn. This could have delayed but long-lasting impacts on the balance of power in Columbus.
In the current 135th General Assembly, Democrats are outnumbered 32 to 67 in the 99 member House and 7 to 26 in the 33 member Senate.
Lee Hannah, a professor of political science at Wright State University, told this news outlet that the practical outcome of imbalanced state legislative maps Ohio is using and has used in the past is that the Statehouse Democrats "don't even have a seat at the table" when it comes to governing.
Supermajorities in both chambers allow Republicans to unilaterally bypass governor vetoes and put constitutional amendments directly on the ballot.
Ohio's GOP supermajority has overturned vetoes on a gender affirming care ban and a ban on municipalities regulating the sale of flavored tobacco products. Republicans also wielded their supermajorities to put an issue on the August 2023 ballot that would have made it nearly impossible for Ohioans to amend the constitution without the legislature's consent, which more than 57% voters turned down.
Meanwhile, Democrat priority legislation on things like regulating guns have virtually no chance of passing.
"At the moment, a lot of the Republican agenda can go through with almost no ability by Democrats to put the brakes on or weigh in on the decision much at all," Hannah said. "They're often left out of the legislative process and are just kind of worked around."
November election
All 99 members of the House and just over half of the 33 members of the Senate are on the ballot this year using new maps updated in 2023 following court orders demanding the state legislative maps be fairer to Democrats.
Even with the concessions, Republicans still hold a sizeable advantage. Under the new maps, Democrats are favored in only 37, or 37.3%, of the House Districts and in only 10, or 30.3%, of the state's Senate Districts.
Hannah said this level of domination is not in keeping with the political leanings of Ohioans, who voted for Democrats an average of 44.8% of the time over the past 16 statewide elections since 2018.
"Republicans have natural advantages in the state, and we can tell because they've been so successful at the statewide level," Hannah said. "At the same time, though, they have been very efficient in the way they draw the boundaries to where a Democratic party that would more often than not be a minority party instead is a superminority party."
Democrats have found ways to stay relevant — most notably by joining a number of Republicans in the current General Assembly to elect a House speaker not favored by the majority of House Republicans. And picking up more seats in November would strengthen their position, allowing for more representation in committees and reducing the partisan margin.
But Democrats would need some major upsets in November to prevent Republicans from maintaining their supermajority in both chambers.
Issue 1
Enter Issue 1, a proposed amendment to the Ohio Constitution that would change how legislative maps are drawn, starting with the 2026 election.
Issue 1, like the current process, mandates that the maps are "proportional" based on voting data in recent statewide elections. Under the proposal, the target proportionality would be calculated by finding the median statewide election over the past six years. The maps couldn't deviate more than 3% from that calculation, unless otherwise impossible.
Here's what that could look like: Since 2018, there have been 16 statewide elections, of which Republicans have won 15. Calculating the median of the results of these elections leaves you with a breakdown of 55.1% for Republicans and 44.9% for Democrats.
In this scenario, the maps produced under Issue 1 would have no more than 58.1% and no less than 52.1% of Ohio's legislative districts favoring Republicans and no more than 47.9% and no less than 41.9% of legislative districts favoring Democrats, unless otherwise impossible.
This would result in maps that favor Republicans in between 52 and 58 House districts, and between 17 and 19 Senate districts. This is a Republican majority, but not a supermajority.
One caveat: These aren't the actual numbers Issue 1 will use. Issue 1′s Citizen Redistricting Commission wouldn't create its first map until until 2025, so it would use a dataset including the outcomes of the 2024 election and not the 2018 election.
Below is a list of all the Statehouse races on the November ballot, including the partisan lean of each district under the current maps. The numbers are pulled directly from the state, which uses precinct-level voting data to determine the two-party voting index in each district. A district that has a 60% Republican index and a 40% Democratic index would have a partisan lean of R +20%.
Of course, voters don't always follow predictable partisan patterns. Candidates matter, as does turnout, so your vote in this and future elections are the final decider of who wields power in Columbus.
Dayton-area races more competitive
Legislative maps drawn last year left three Dayton-area districts within a 10-point partisan lean, making them particularly competitive this year.
Senate District 6 (D +8.3)
The Dayton area is home to one of the most stark concessions Republicans made to Democrats in the entire state in the map-drawing process.
Senate District 6, which covers Dayton and many of its suburbs, used to lean Republican but now leans Democrat by more than eight points after the boundaries were shifted in 2023.
As incumbent Sen. Niraj Antani, R-Miami Twp., described it in a Dayton Daily News op-ed detailing his frayed relationship with Republican leaders in the Ohio Senate: "They made my district, which had leaned Republican, into a significantly Democrat district, one that Joe Biden won by over 8 points in 2020. In order to accomplish this in the map, they had to cut through farm fields in Miami Township in order to remove Miamisburg, a base of support of mine, to put it in another Senate district." Antani opted not to run for a second term in the Senate.
Senate District 6 going Democrat is not a foregone conclusion. But, the opportunity to become the first Democrat to represent Dayton in the Ohio Senate in over a decade drew in Rep. Willis Blackshear, Jr., D-Dayton, who easily won a crowded March primary. Blackshear could have run for reelection in his heavily Democratic house district and risks giving up a seat at the Statehouse, should he lose this November.
He faces Republican Charlotte McGuire, a resident of Centerville who has served on the State Board of Education since 2016, winning two elections.
House District 36 (R +5.6)
In one of the most competitive races in the area, incumbent Rep. Andrea White, R-Kettering, faces Oakwood Democrat Rose Lounsbury, a business owner and former public school teacher.
House District 36 now consists of Kettering, Oakwood, Riverside and parts of downtown Dayton. White narrowly won the district with 50.5% of the vote in 2022, but the new maps moved the district a few percentage points further to the right.
House District 39 (R +7.1)
Voters of House District 39, covering parts of Dayton and Clayton and the entirety of Englewood, Harrison Twp., Huber Heights, Union, Vandalia and Wayne Twp., will have the choice between incumbent Rep. Phil Plummer, R-Butler Twp., or Democrat Dion Green of Dayton.
Plummer, the former Montgomery County sheriff who was first elected as state rep in 2018, also serves as the chair of the Montgomery County Republican Party.
His opponent, Green, is an author and gun safety advocate. He started the Fudge Foundation in honor of his late father, who Green was with when he was killed in the 2019 Oregon District shooting.
House District 39 is another Montgomery County district that moved considerably to the right in the 2023 redraw. It now leans Republican by 7.1 points.
Other Senate races
Senate District 10 (R +26.4)
Senate District 10, which is made up of Clark, Greene and Clinton counties, will be getting new representation this fall. The seat has been held since 2016 by incumbent Sen. Bob Hackett, R-London, who is now term-limited.
On Nov. 5, voters will choose between Republican Kyle Koehler, a former Springfield state rep who spent eight years in the Ohio House, and Democrat Daniel McGregor, who has worked as a Wright Patterson Air Force Base defense contractor.
Senate District 4 (R +26.3)
In Senate District 4, which takes up nearly all of Butler County, incumbent Sen. George Lang, R-West Chester, is hoping to win his seat for a second and final time. He faces Democrat Thomas Cooke, a retired lieutenant colonel of the U.S. Army.
Other House races
Montgomery County
House District 38 (D +54.9): Democrat Desiree Tims, the president of a progressive state-level think tank and a former staffer for President Barack Obama and Ohio U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, is running unopposed. This is Blackshear's current district, which now leans Democrat by about 54.9 points. The district includes much of Dayton and Trotwood.
House District 37 (R +15.9): Incumbent Rep. Tom Young, R-Washington Twp., is running unopposed. The district consists of Moraine, Springboro, Washington Twp., West Carrollton, Carlisle, Centerville, and parts of Dayton, Jefferson Twp. and Miami Twp.
House District 40 (R +49.4): Incumbent Rep. Rodney Creech, R-West Alexandria, is hoping to win his third term. He faces Democrat Bobbie Arnold, a contractor also from West Alexandria. This district includes western Montgomery County as well as all of Preble County and a chunk of Butler County.
Greene County
House District 70 (R +25.0): Incumbent Rep. Brian Lampton, R-Beavercreek, is hoping for another term in office. He'll be taking on Democrat Joseph Wilson of Beavercreek, a former Marine who now works in the defense industry, in the race for this Beavercreek district.
House District 71 (R +36): Republican Xenia City Council member Levi Dean is hoping to replace his father, the term-limited Rep. Bill Dean, R-Xenia, in the Ohio House. He'll take on Democrat Krista Magaw, a conservationist from Yellow Springs. This district consists of the entirety of Clinton and chunks of Greene and Clark counties.
Butler County
House District 45 (R +25.32): Incumbent Rep. Jennifer Gross, R-West Chester, is taking on Democrat Landon Meador, a 23-year-old college student raised in West Chester.
House District 46 (R +30.68): Incumbent Rep. Thomas Hall, R-Madison Twp., is seeking reelection against Democrat Benjamin McCall, a workforce development consultant in Liberty Twp.
House District 47 (R +22.7): Hamilton pastor Diane Mullins is seeking her first post in public office after defeating incumbent Rep. Sara Carruthers, R-Hamilton, in March's GOP primary. Mullins will be taking on Democrat Vanessa Cummings, another pastor from Hamilton.
Clark County
House District 74 (R +16.8): Incumbent Rep. Bernie Willis, R-Springfield, is seeking his first reelection against Democrat Derek Alvarado, a teacher from Springfield. This district includes Springfield and much of Clark County.
Warren County
House District 55 (R +47.4): There will be new representation following the departure of term-limited Rep. Scott Lipps, R-Franklin. Vying to replace him are Republican Michelle Teska of Clearcreek Twp., the owner of various senior care facilities, and Democrat Laura Davis, and environmental educator also from Clearcreek Twp.
House District 56 (R +27.5): On the western side of Warren County, incumbent Rep. Adam Mathews, R-Lebanon, is hoping for his reelection against Democrat Cleveland Canova, a former history teacher.
Miami County
House District 80 (R+ 48.4): This district will see new representation following the decision of Rep. Jena Powell, R-Arcanum, not to run for reelection. Pastor Johnathan Newman of Troy, a Republican, will be taking on Democrat Melissa VanDyke, a Miami County business owner. This district takes up all of Miami County and a portion of Darke.
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Avery Kreemer can be reached at 614-981-1422, on X, via email, or you can drop him a comment/tip with the survey below.
