Elon Musk’s Risky Gamble On Trump Pays Off

Elon Musk's reputation and wealth derive from his willingness to make risky bets decades ago with SpaceX and Tesla. None seemed riskier than his high-profile, big-dollar bet on Donald Trump to win the presidency. And like those earlier gambles, this one is likely to pay off by making him the most influential executive in the new administration – and even richer.

Already the world's wealthiest person , Musk's net worth grew by $21 billion to $285.6 billion on Wednesday as Tesla shares surged 15% following news of Trump's victory. The stock closed at $288.53, its highest in over a year. SpaceX, his rocket company that's become essential for NASA and Defense Department launches, is likely to become an even bigger beneficiary of federal contracts from a Trump government, which would further boost Musk's wealth.

The implications of his support go beyond any short-term financial gains from his Tesla shares. Trump has said he wants him to serve as a government efficiency advisor in his new administration that, at a minimum, suggests there will be a much lighter touch on rules and regulations on big companies, particularly those he favors.

"He's a special guy. He's a super genius," Trump said of Musk in his victory speech on Wednesday. "We have to protect our geniuses. We don't have that many of them. We have to protect our super geniuses."

While his relations with Biden have been frosty, with perceived snubs early on in which Musk wasn't included in White House events focused on electric vehicle manufacturers, things are poised to be dramatically different in the incoming administration. Musk, who'd never previously been a major campaign donor in the past, funneled about $120 million to Trump and Republican candidates through his America PAC, ran a controversial cash giveaway for voters in swing states to aid his preferred candidate and made numerous public appearances at Trump rallies in the final weeks of the campaign. He did so despite the fact that multiple consumer surveys showed that those actions are not welcome to Tesla's core buyer base, who largely identify as climate-conscious consumers.

Tesla is facing a series of ongoing reviews by federal regulators, including the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, for accidents involving its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features, many of which have resulted in fatalities. Tesla's manufacturing operations have run into probes by the Occupational Health and Safety Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, for workplace hazards and industrial pollution. And the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has previously sanctioned Musk for false tweets about taking Tesla private, is currently seeking new penalties against the billionaire for failing to provide testimony for its probe of his $44 billion Twitter takeover. In Texas, SpaceX's massive launch facility was also recently fined $140,000 for violating groundwater rules.

"America is a nation of builders," Musk said on X, formerly Twitter, after a Trump victory was apparent. "Soon you will be free to build."

While it's unclear whether a father of 11 children who runs multiple companies, including xAI, the Boring Co. and Neuralink in addition to Tesla and SpaceX, can squeeze in a job with Trump administration, some Tesla investors are thrilled. Ross Gerber, president of Los Angeles-based investment firm Gerber Kawasaki, expects Musk to push for fewer regulations – and his businesses and others should benefit broadly.

"It's just good," said Gerber, whose fund holds about $60 million of Tesla stock. "Do you how much time and money corporations spend just dealing with stupid document requests that ask about crap that the regulators themselves have no idea what they're talking about? It goes on and on and on."

He's unsure, however, whether Musk will work to influence Trump's policies on electric vehicles and trade tariffs, which would add significant costs to Tesla vehicles that are produced with numerous imported parts and materials.

"It depends if Trump wants to listen to anybody," Gerber said. "Elon has a particularly delicate balance of nations that he has to please, including China. It's a very delicate dance and one that he may or may not do well."

Musk's evolving priorities, pivoting Tesla toward robotaxis, robotics and AI, and seeming to abandon his past concerns about climate, should also benefit from the next administration.

Trump will likely "be an overall negative for the EV industry as likely the EV rebates/tax incentives get pulled, however for Tesla we see this as a huge positive," equity analyst Dan Ives, an outspoken Tesla bull, said in a research note. "It has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment."

Ives also thinks Trump may help accelerate Musk's robotaxi dreams, mainly by limiting any new federal barriers to the technology. "The autonomous fast-tracking will be front and center for investors in this scenario as some of the 2026/2027 goals for Tesla could be accelerated to stay on track with the China timeline for autonomous currently underway."

The unexpectedly tight bond between Musk and Trump that's developed in the past year is likely to make the tech billionaire, already an outsize figure in multiple industries, a singularly influential figure in the next few years — if the current lovefest continues.

"He loves power. He's relied on the government to build his companies and this will be very beneficial to everything he's doing, so he'll be very involved" in the new administration, Gerber said. "The risk most people haven't mentioned is that Trump tires of big egos quickly. It's one thing to share the spotlight to use Elon's power to win. It's another thing once you're in office dealing with Trump, and he has many interests vying for his love. And if you remember the last time, everybody that was close to him on day one was dead by day 35."

MORE FROM FORBES Elon Musk's Relentless Trolling Of Democrats Is Tarnishing Tesla Elon Musk Sees Tesla's Future In Self-Driving Robotaxis But He's Far Behind Waymo Elon Musk's 'United States Of America Inc' Is Mailing Checks To His Pro-Trump PAC Supporters