European Commission Chosen In A Divide And Conquer Style
Following the immense distraction caused by the withdrawal of Thierry Breton as a potential commissioner, Ursula von der Leyen has unveiled her new commission, which in my view is intensely political – in the sense that appointments are driven less by skills and competences, and much more by national and EU politics. There is an aspect of divide and conquer - the aim of which is to grant greater power to the EU president and the technocratic staff of the EC.
Across the 27 appointments, the key take-aways are
The withdrawal of Breton was controversial and was spurred by Macron's desire for a grand portfolio for France, and von der Leyen's desire to be rid of Breton. As a result, the immediate outcome is that the prosecution of the digital services act and the organisation of AI policy will be less forceful and less passionate.
In general the purview of technology is quite complex. Formally Henna Virkkunen of Finland is in a senior EVP role for Tech Sovereignty, Democracy, and Security which in real terms encompasses cloud, artificial intelligence and quantum, and she gets to head the Commission's DG CNECT, responsible for digital policy.
But, she has to contend with the involvement of a couple of other colleagues as the management of algorithms is in the realm of the Romanian commissioner and mis/disinformation in the bracket of the Irish Justice commissioner for example, and there is also a commissioner for start-ups.
Lithuania's Andrius Kubilius is to oversee the new EU space law as as commissioner for Defence and Space, which is seen as a reward to the Baltic states' support for Ukraine and its antipathy to Russia. This is a new role at the EC and is yet to be fully defined.
My sense is that a lot of the focus will be on sizing up the defence capabilities of the EU states, needs for procurement, defence infrastructure and the mapping of the EU's new Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), which will aim to increase production capacity, create equipment reserves and drive purchases of EU-made kit.
Von der Leyen, whose demand for a male and female candidate from each country had been stymied by many nations, struck a blow for female candidates in promoting Mînzatu and Virkkunen. Spain's Teresa Riberia also got an important green economic portfolio – despite the objections of other states.
Italy and Giorgia Meloni are also relative winners in that her commissioner Rafaele Fitto will hold a senior (EVP) rank and the cohesion funds portfolio. Oddly, Portugal – not a financial services stronghold gets the financial services portfolio.
The allocation of roles across 27 commissioners is more political and personalised than I might have thought. It is not, in a formal or corporate sense, optimal, and in our view is designed to increase the power of the president and the commission staff/civil servants. For example, Stephane Sejourné is a career politician with little experience outside party politics. He will be a relatively compliant commissioner in the nonetheless important industry role.
The positives are a strong allocation to women, the creation of a powerful digital role and a beefed up industrial policy/strategic autonomy role.
Politically there is a big shift in power to the Baltic and Nordic states (as such a signal to Russia), away from other small countries (Ireland). Poland shows its arrival on the EU scene by gaining the budget portfolio – which is politically very important. Italy has also won an important portfolio. Von der Leyen's personal power is bolstered, as is that of the technocrats who really run Brussels.
The next step is that through October the roles are approved by the Parliament (Fitto's role could be controversial). Many commissioners are in areas where they do not have specific experience, so the formation of cabinets will be important, and in turn this will mean that a lot of power rests in the hands of technocrats.
