Ex-MLB GM: Why Mets have an edge in Roki Sasaki sweepstakes

Unlike the decisions of most major league free agents, 23-year-old Roki Sasaki won't be basing his on his next contract.

Because he's younger than 25, the rising Japanese ace falls under the international bonus pool rules, meaning every team is capped at about the same dollar amount for what it could offer and they will have to present Sasaki with the best environment for his baseball and personal life.

It is likely that Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball will post Sasaki so that the timing allows the right-hander to sign after Jan. 15, when all 30 teams' bonus pools are reset at what is around $7 million.

Theoretically, every team has an equal chance to sign Sasaki, who has not shared publicly his preferences. So, for now, many reporters are making their best guesses based on their sources. According to ex-MLB general manager Jim Bowden , Sasaki signing with the Los Angeles, who many consider the front runner, is not a done deal. The Mets have as good a chance as anyone — and maybe an edge.

Bowden cited league sources, including "front-office decision makers who are optimistic about their chances of signing Sasaki, " in reporting that it's "unlikely" Sasaki signs in Los Angeles for one big reason: endorsements.

Bowden also mentioned the Mets on a list of teams that could coach him the best, too.

In a way, Baseball America touted similar reasons — plus owner Steve Cohen's wallet — for what the Mets would sell Sasaki on.

BA's Matt Eddy added on Bluesky that the Mets are also steeped in history with Japanese players, a nod to their commitment to the country.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns visited Japan to watch Sasaki in September. He called him a "unique talent" earlier in November.

In four seasons and 414 2/3 innings with Chiba Lotte, Sasaki posted a 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 524 strikeouts. There is some concern about his dip in fastball velocity to 96.9 this past season, per The Athletic , but it's not enough to dissuade teams at his salary and with his still electric stuff.

While Juan Soto's free agency will period will be wild in the traditional sense of money and years, his suitors are capped to what seems like five teams. Most of the league, wrongly, will not commit more than $600 million to a player, even one who is among the best hitters in the game.

Sasaki is a different story because of the even playing field when it comes to his contract. Nobody knows how much he's angling for money (endorsements), either. After all, he could have waited until he was 25 to take the Yoshinobu Yamamoto path. Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers last offseason. If money were Sasaki's biggest driver, he is not taking the most logical path toward it.