Fantasy Baseball Offseason Tracker: Sonny Gray bolsters Cardinals rotation; Mets gamble on Luis Severino
The hot stove is humming, and the signings and trades are picking up steam. Wouldn't it be great if there was a place you could go for quick-hitting Fantasy Baseball analysis on all the biggest moves?
Well, there is, and it's right here. Through the long, dark winter, you can count on the Offseason Tracker to keep the embers of anticipation burning, right up to the point where pitchers and catchers are reporting and Draft Prep season begins anew.
Here's what to make of what's happened so far ...
Luis Severino signs with Mets
Luis Severino N.Y. Yankees • #40 • Age: 29Severino remained in our good graces even as he threw a combined 18 innings from 2019 through 2021, and that patience seemed to be rewarded when he delivered a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 across 102 innings in 2022. But boy was 2023 a different story, the kind of out-and-out disaster that begs the question "why even bother?" Are the Mets the organization to change our minds? Certainly, they're not known for performing magic tricks, but they're willing to pay the guy $13 million for a year. And a deeper dive reveals that the characteristics of Severino's pitches - from the velocity to the spin rate to the movement - didn't actually change that much. He's no more than a late-round flier at this point, but one who retains intriguing upside.
Sonny Gray signs with Cardinals
Sonny Gray • #54 • Age: 34The Cardinals continue their rotation overhaul with one of the biggest prizes on the free agent market, AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray. Of course, in Fantasy, Gray has long been regarded as second-tier, his occasional flashes of brilliance too often undermined by injury and inconsistency. Then again, he was pretty stable during his two-year stint with the Twins , compiling a 2.90 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. He led all qualifiers with a 2.83 FIP in 2023 and also unveiled a new sweeper that Eno Sarris of The Athletic considers a game-changer . Still, between his past fake-outs, his so-so strikeout rate, and the fact that 2023 represented his first time crossing the 180-inning threshold since 2015, you're better off thinking of Gray as a rotation stabilizer than a true standout in Fantasy, targeting him as your No. 3 or 4 in 12-team leagues.
Kenta Maeda signs with Tigers
Kenta Maeda • #18 • Age: 35Maeda's high ERA and low innings total will likely make him an afterthought in most Fantasy drafts, but there's upside for the Tigers to dream on. His 10.9 K/9 ranked 12th among pitchers with at least 100 innings, which is a good place to start when talking upside, and his 12.8 percent swinging-strike rate ranked 23rd. His penchant for hard contract did yield some troubles with the long ball, but moving to the venue that Statcast rates dead last for home runs over the past three years should help to mitigate that. More than anything, it's health that will determine Maeda's fate in 2024, and with him turning 36, there will be some bumps along those lines. But for a reminder of how good it can be, he had a nine-start stretch after returning from a triceps injury last June in which he put together a 2.36 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.2 K/9.
Eugenio Suarez traded to Diamondbacks
Eugenio Suarez • #28 • Age: 32 .232 .714T-Mobile Park was the single worst venue for right-handed hitters last year, according to Statcast, so at first glance, this would seem to be an upgrade for the four-time 30-homer man. But his power production was better at home than on the road the past two years, and Chase Field actually rates worse for home runs specifically. No, Suarez's issues have less to do with his surroundings than his profile. A strikeout rate over 30 percent basically condemns him to a low batting average, and his fly-ball and pull tendencies, while allowing for big home run totals at times, only make it worse. He's best used as a corner infielder in Rotisserie leagues. His arrival at third base does close one potential path to at-bats for prospect Jordan Lawlar , but the 21-year-old's future is likely at shortstop anyway.
Reynaldo Lopez signs with Braves
Reynaldo Lopez • #40 • Age: 29Normally, the signing of a middle reliever - even one of Lopez's ilk - wouldn't merit a mention here, but word is that the Braves plan to stretch him out as a starter this spring. It's unclear whether it's a contingency measure or Plan A for Lopez - the rest of the Braves' offseason maneuvering may ultimately determine which - but it's a noteworthy development for a pitcher who hasn't been a full-time starter since 2020. The will-be 30-year-old struggled in his years as a starter before finding success in relief, gaining a couple ticks on his fastball while doing away with his changeup and curveball. The Braves must see some untapped potential here, though, and if he indeed holds down a rotation spot for them, the win potential alone would make him a potential Fantasy asset.
Lance Lynn signs with Cardinals
Lance Lynn L.A. Dodgers • #35 • Age: 36Lynn has had a nice career and goes back to where it all started in St. Louis. Unfortunately, he's clearly on the downside of it now, having struggled to get his ERA below 6.00 last year. A move to the Dodgers at the trade deadline didn't do much to improve his standing, and if they can't straighten him out with all they've done to reclaim other veteran pitchers, then it's hard to imagine the Cardinals will. Lynn can still deliver a decent strikeout total on occasion, but given how susceptible he was to blowups in 2023, you should think of him as more of a risk/reward streamer than a staple for your Fantasy staff in 2024.
Aaron Nola signs with Phillies
Aaron Nola • #27 • Age: 30This seven-year deal ensures the status quo for a player who, frankly, could have done with a change. Nola is coming off his second year in three with an ERA around 4.50, and a new team might have offered more reason for optimism in 2024. Of course, there are other reasons to believe he could bounce back. A look at the game log shows no shortage of brilliant starts - the kind only accessible to aces, more or less - and he showed improvement in the postseason, apparently making a mechanical adjustment to help him locate on the edges of the plate better. We know now his home runs issues are recurring, though, which should discount him slightly on Draft Day despite his ace potential.
