Fed hawks and doves: The latest from US central bankers

(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, and the choices more varied: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.

All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The following chart offers a look at how officials currently stack up on their outlooks for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.

Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances – for an accounting of how our counts have changed please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Patrick John Jerome Michelle

Harker, Williams, New Powell, Bowman,

Philadelph York Fed Fed Governor,

ia Fed President, Chair, permanent

President, permanent permanent voter: “My

voter: “A are at, or “If it economic

decrease near, the becomes outlook

in the peak level of appropria continues

policy the target te to to expect

rate is range of the tighten that we

not federal funds policy will need

something rate.” Nov further, to

that is 30, 2023 we will increase

likely to not the

happen in hesitate federal

the short to do funds rate

term.” so.” Nov. further.”

Nov. 8, 9, 2023 Nov. 28,

Raphael Philip Christoph Loretta

Bostic, Jefferson, er Mester,

Atlanta Vice Chair: Waller, Cleveland

Fed “We are in a Governor, Fed

President, sensitive permanent President,

voter: “I risk am voter:

don’t management, increasin “Monetary

think where we have gly policy is

we’ve seen to balance confident in a good

the full the risk of that place for

effects of not having policy is policymake

restrictiv tightened currently rs to

e policy.” enough, well assess

Nov. 29, against the positione incoming

policy being the n on the

too economy economy

restrictive.” and get and

Oct. 9, 2023 inflation financial

back to conditions

Michael Barr, Neel

Vice Chair of Kashkari,

Supervision, Minneapol

permanent is Fed

voter: The President

Fed is “at or , 2023

near the voter:

peak” of “When

interest activity

rates.” Nov. continues

this hot,

makes me

if policy

is as

tight as

we assume

is.” Nov.

Lisa Cook, Lorie

Governor, Logan,

permanent Dallas

voter: “I Fed

see risks as President

two-sided, , 2023

requiring us voter:

to balance “We have

the risk of seen some

not retraceme

tightening nt in

enough that

against the 10-year

risk of yield and

tightening financial

too much.” condition

Nov. 16, 2023 s, and so

I’ll be

to see

and what

means for

ons of

policy,”

Nov. 7,

Austan Goolsb Thomas

ee, Chicago Barkin,

Fed Richmond

President, Fed

“If we hit , 2024

the targets voter:

that we “If

expect to inflation

hit, then we is going

would be on to flare

path to get back up,

to 2%, and I think

that’s what I you want

call the to have

golden path.” the

Nov. 17, 2023 option of

more on

rates.”

Nov. 29,

Mary Daly,

San Francisco

President,

“I’m thinking

about whether

we have

tightening in

the system

and are

to restore

stability.

interest rate

cuts are not

helpful at

the moment.”

Nov. 30, 2023

Collins,

Boston Fed

President,

The Fed

should be

“patient and

resolute, and

I wouldn’t

firming off

the table.”

Nov. 17, 2023

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, was in July.

Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by the end of this year, but recently many have expressed more confidence that none will be needed. Neither Jeff Schmid, who has been Kansas City Fed’s president since August and will be a voter on the FOMC in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed’s Board of Governors in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to replace its former president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a voter on the policy-setting committee in 2025. Interim St. Louis Fed chief Kathleen O’Neill Paese appears to lean hawkish.

Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centris Hawkish Hawk

Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2

Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3

June ’23 0 3 3 8 3

March ’23 0 2 3 10 2

Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2

(Reporting by Ann Saphir in Berkeley, California; Editing by Matthew Lewis and Paul Simao)