Final Polls Show Kamala Harris' Chances of Winning Election vs Donald Trump
As polls open on Tuesday, election forecasts show that the race is neck and neck.
According to pollster Nate Silver 's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to former President Donald Trump 's 49.6 percent. It also notes a 0.3 percent chance of a tie, which would send the decision to the U.S. House of Representatives, where Trump is expected to have an advantage.
Similarly, FiveThirtyEight's forecast mirrors these tight margins, showing Harris with a 50 percent likelihood of winning. The Economist's forecast also predicts a close race.
Poll trackers continue to give Harris a slight edge over Trump nationally. FiveThirtyEight's poll average has Harris 1.2 points ahead of Trump, at 48 percent to his 46.8 percent. Silver's average polling tracker shows that Harris is 1 point ahead, 48.6 percent to Trump's 47.6 percent.
Polling trackers from The New York Times and the BBC also have Harris 1 point ahead of Trump.
Naturally, polls conducted in the past few days also show a tight race. A John Zogby Strategies poll of 1,005 registered likely voters conducted on November 2 and 3 showed Harris 3.7 points ahead of Trump in a four-way race with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver and the Green Party's Jill Stein. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.2 points. Another poll conducted by Ipsos and Reuters between November 1 and 3 gave Harris a 2-point lead. Harris' lead was within the margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Trump led by 1 point in an AtlasIntel poll (49 percent to 48) of 2,703 likely voters conducted on November 3 and 4. This is within the margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
In the swing states, polls similarly indicate a close election.
Both FiveThirtyEight's and Nate Silver's trackers show Harris in the lead in Michigan, albeit by a small margin.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris is 1 point ahead in the Great Lake state, while Silver puts her 1.2 points ahead.
The latest AtlasIntel poll put Trump ahead by 2 points, while Research Co. had Harris in the lead by a similar margin. These leads fall within the respective margins of error.
Other polls conducted this month by Patriot Polling and Insider Advantage have the state tied. The most recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College, conducted between October 24 and November 2, also showed Harris and Trump tied at 47 among likely voters.
Both polling aggregators also show Harris is 1 point ahead in Wisconsin.
According to AtlasIntel's latest poll, Trump is 1 point ahead of Harris in Wisconsin. Research Co. had Harris 3 points ahead of the former president. The leads are within the margins of error. The Trafalgar Group, which FiveThirtyEight lists as Republican-funded, put the vice president 1 point ahead.
Similarly to Michigan, some polls have also shown the candidates tied, including surveys conducted by Patriot Polling and Emerson College. If Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska's 2nd district, she would likely win the Electoral College vote.
Pennsylvania is virtually neck and neck, according to polls. With 19 Electoral College votes, the state is a crucial one to win. FiveThirtyEight's polling average tracker currently puts Harris 0.2 points ahead in the state. But Silver's tracker shows Trump ahead by 0.1 points.
Nearly all polls have the two candidates within 3 points of each other, all within the margin of error.
However, an Echelon Insights poll , conducted between October 27 and 30 among 600 registered voters, showed the candidates separated by a larger margin in Pennsylvania, with Trump 5 points ahead of Harris on the expanded ballot. In a head-to-head matchup, he led by 6 points.
Such numbers for Trump would amount to the biggest winning margin by a Republican in the state since the late Ronald Reagan, who won Pennsylvania by 7 points in 1984.
According to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, Nevada is currently the one of the closest states in the election, with Harris and Trump on even odds of winning the state.
FiveThirtyEight's average poll tracker put Trump 0.3 points ahead in the state. Silver's tracker puts the former president 0.6 points ahead.
Recent polls show more positive signs for Trump though, with AtlasIntel's latest poll putting him 3 points ahead, though its previous survey showed him ahead by 5 points.
Other polls from Nevada have put Harris ahead, including the latest poll by The New York Times and Siena College, which put the vice president ahead by 3 points among 1,010 likely voters—within the margin of error.
Arizona appears likely to vote for Trump, according to polling.
Silver's forecast shows Trump has a 72 percent chance of winning the state. Both FiveThirtyEight and Silver put Trump ahead by 2 points on average in Arizona—his biggest lead in any swing state poll tracker.
Polls reflect a similar advantage for Trump, with all but one survey conducted in the state since October 25 putting Trump ahead. AtlasIntel's latest poll put him ahead by 5 points, outside the margin of error.
FiveThirtyEight's forecast gives Trump 67 percent chance of winning the state.
Poll trackers show Trump ahead in Georgia, while Trump's chances of winning the state are similar to those of Arizona, but slightly lower.
According to Silver, Trump is 1 point ahead in Georgia on average polling, with a 58 percent chance of winning the state. FiveThirtyEight put Trump 0.8 points ahead with a 60 percent chance of winning the state.
North Carolina
Polling trackers put Trump ahead by a small margin in North Carolina. According to FiveThirtyEight, he is 0.9 points ahead, while Nate Silver's tracker puts him 1.1 points ahead, giving him a 61 percent chance of winning the state.
The latest polls seen above have Trump leading the vice president but The New York Times and Siena College survey put Harris between 2 and 3 points ahead among 1,010 likely voters, which is within the margin of error.
