First Alert Weather to debut DC, Maryland and Virginia winter snowfall prediction Monday

Looking back, the D.C. area has experienced a lack of significant snowfall over the past five winters.

Last winter, the eastern Pacific Ocean experienced a robust El Nino, which was marked by higher than usual sea surface temperatures near the equator. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had predicted this phenomenon, and our winter weather outlooks were adjusted. An El Nino pattern typically results in significantly higher snowfall than average across the Mid-Atlantic.

According to our forecast, the D.C. metro area was estimated to receive over 17 inches of snow. However, Reagan National Airport officially registered around 8 inches.

This winter, we can expect the opposite of El Nino, which is forecasted to be La Nina. The impacts of La Nina are typically the complete opposite of El Nino, mainly because of the contrasting ocean temperature patterns and this is leaning toward low snowfall amounts.

Here is a look at the past 10 week La Nina events and snowfall that fell in D.C.

Some other factors may influence our snow totals:

Last winter, December temperatures averaged 3.8 degrees above normal, January was 2.3 degrees above and February was 4.4 degrees above average.

In fact, winter 2023-2024 wound up tied for sixth place as one of the warmest winters in over 152 years of record. The average temperature for winter in D.C. is 41.6 degrees. The mean temperature last winter was 43.2 degrees, putting us more than 2 degrees above.

Temperatures:

La Niña winters in D.C. often bring warmer-than-average temperatures, especially during the early part of winter.

However, cold outbreaks can still occur, particularly if the polar jet stream dips southward, bringing Arctic air to the region.

Snowfall:

Snowfall during La Niña winters in D.C. tends to be below average.

This is because La Niña generally shifts the storm track further north, directing major snowstorms away from the Mid-Atlantic and toward the northern U.S.

However, D.C. can still see occasional snow events, especially during periods of colder air intrusions.

Variability:

The effects of La Niña aren't uniform; there have been La Niña winters with significant snowstorms in D.C. For instance, the 2010-2011 La Niña winter still produced notable snowfalls.

In summary, La Niña typically leans toward milder and less snowy winters for D.C., but cold and snowy surprises aren't out of the question.

Overall, winter weather conditions are getting increasingly more unpredictable and difficult to forecast as our climate warms.

Climate Matters research indicates that winter is our fastest warming season, our coldest days are no longer as cold as they used to be, and cold snaps are becoming more infrequent. For the last 50 years, winters have warmed 3.1 degrees on average.

Additionally, precipitation is more commonly falling as rain, but snowstorms are packing a bigger punch when we do get an intrusion of cold air at just the right time.

While this winter's shoveling could be more light-lifting than heavy-duty, stay weather ready for all forms of weather.