Following Election, future of U.S.-Canadian relationship headlines SUNY presentation

PLATTSBURGH — Donald Trump's re-election to the presidency has one political analyst predicting how it will affect the United States' relationship with Canada in the future.

Dr. Christopher Sands, Director of the Wilson Center's Canada Institute, a specialist on Canada, US-Canadian relations, and North American economic integration, recently held a presentation, called "Signals and Noise: What Does the US Election Mean for US-Canadian Relations?" for SUNY Plattsburgh's Center for the Study of Canada to discuss what President-Elect Trump's impact may be on relationships with the prime minister, immigration and potential implementation of tariffs.

To start, Sands, answering a question posed by SUNY Plattsburgh's Dr. Christopher Kirkey, said it does not seem Trump will have a "great" relationship with Canada's current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Sands said Trudeau negatively comparing his political opposition, Pierre Poilievre, to Trump, and trying to say the freedom truckers, a Canadian convoy protest against COVID-19 vaccine mandates, were a version of the January 6th insurrection, are reasons for his prediction.

"President Trump, I think, like many politicians, has an ego, and having all of that thrown in (with) sort of trying to tar Canadian's opposition by association with (Trump's) his movement — his ideas — will not endear Justin Trudeau to Donald Trump, to put it mildly," Sands said.

Still, Sands said Trump has been known to have constructive meetings with those on the opposite side of the political spectrum.

However, he said if Conservative candidate Poilievre wins Canada's upcoming federal election, which, according to the Associated Press, could come anytime between this fall and next October, it could make working relations easier.

This is not because they are both on the right politically, but because Poilievre will have a fresh start and chance at making a better first impression on Trump, Sands said.

"I don't think we should equate the two, or say, 'well, they're both on the right, so they'll naturally get along' — they often don't," he said.

"There could be some sticky issues that come up, but I think overall, the fact that we (could) have a reboot will be welcome."

Kirkey asked Sands about President-Elect Trump's proposed mass deportation policy as well and what that could mean for Canada and folks wanting to go north.

Sands said when Trump was elected to his first term in 2016, he had a similar stance on immigration and that caused many migrants in the United States to self-deport to Canada and avoid acquiring an arrest record here.

Ahead of Trump's inauguration in January of 2025, he said self-deportation could happen again and President Joe Biden could take steps to make sure the flow of people is manageable, but this will be tricky because of the uncertainty of Trump's plans.

Regardless of what happens between now and Inauguration Day, though, Sands said Trump will inherit a large immigration problem when he takes office.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner on refugees, there are an estimated 120 million stateless displaced people around the world fleeing from civil war in Sudan, Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela, Haiti, he said.

Most of these people are headed for Canada, the United States, European countries and Australia, Sands said, which "puts a lot of pressure on our systems."

"I think what really frustrates a lot of citizens is the sense that there's no control at the border, that people are coming in and they're just all over the place," Sands said.

"And for people with, maybe, a bit of a religious background, I think their concern is that when you bring in people who are refugees, who come in often with nothing, they aren't like the traditional Canadian immigrants, who come in with a college degree and will have an easy path assimilating into the middle class, these are people who need a lot of help," he continued.

"They may need language help, they need help getting their kids to school, their level of health may be poor, and they'll need some remedial help to bring themselves back up to full health. That's a real challenge, and for the government to allow their entry, even if it is by doing nothing when they try to cross illegally and then not having a plan to take care of those people, it's hard."

In order to alleviate the strain the influx of migrants is causing on both the United States and Canada's health care and housing systems, Sands said there will need to be cooperation in many areas from both countries.

"I don't think there are any Canadians, or not very many Americans either, who want to punish the people who are in this situation, but our systems are going to be under a lot of pressure, and it's really important, I think, for the US and Canada to cooperate on this," Sands said.

"Try to identify individuals, make sure we know we're letting in, have done the right background checks, even encouraging legal application for refugee centers or what have you."

Since Election Night, there have been many discussions about Trump's proposed tariffs and what effect, if enacted, they could have on trade.

Kirkey asked Sands how he believes they could affect Canada, specifically.

In response, Sands pointed to Trump's first term when he declared he would "tear up" NAFTA — the North American Free Trade Agreement — which established a free-trade zone in North America when it was signed in 1992.

"By the time he was making those comments, it was popular in Canada, it was popular in Mexico. They saw the benefits. It was still controversial in the United States. Canadians had heard that rhetoric before, but they hadn't necessarily expected the US to tear up the agreement. So it was definitely a headline," he said.

"What the president did was use that to signal his toughness to his own voters, but also to get Canada and Mexico to come to the table. and of course, they came to the table, you'd have to. So I think the 10% (tariffs) threat, because he's threatened it on all imports, is really to get people to take him seriously and to come to the table and figure out what they can do to avoid being subject to that, kind of, cross-the-board tariff."

When it comes to Canada, Sands said a lot of their exports are one-way through the U.S. and they could be subject to tariffs.

"You think about energy, you think about a lot of commodities, even softwood lumber for that matter, any number of products that just cross the border once,

"In New York and in much of the Midwest, we have an integrated manufacturing base, and so goods will actually cross the border multiple times in their production. and this is one area where we would be foolish to put a 10% tariff on, I think, because if you did, unless you had like a GST rebate that was easy for business to use, you would be just accelerating this climb in the price of the product, both the price of production and the price for the consumer."

Because of the ramifications that could have, Sands does not believe Trump will impose an across the board tariff.

"I don't think Donald Trump ran for president indifferent to the concerns of people in the Midwest who are trying to make ends meet and already think inflation is biting too high," he said.

"They're not going to want to hear that everything from Procter and Gamble soap to their next car will be more expensive because of Trump tariffs. So I think the likelihood of a broad application across all areas is unlikely. I think instead, it will be a more targeted one."

Tariffs will be an area where the U.S. and Canada can actually find some common ground, he said.

"We agree that China has played dirty on trade, and so to the extent that Canada and the U.S. are able to align on push back against China, then I think actually the likelihood of a 10% tariff goes down," Sands said.

"...I'm somewhat optimistic."