For Broncos to extend win streak, they must shrink two big mismatches vs. Browns
ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — A four-game winning streak has not been able to hide two of the Denver Broncos’ biggest issues this season.
Since Week 7, when Denver escaped with a 19-17 home victory against the Green Bay Packers to begin the streak, the Broncos rank 29th in opponent rushing yards per game (141.5). During that same window, the Broncos are 28th in opponent sack rate (10.4 percent) and 25th in pressure rate allowed (39.3 percent), according to TruMedia. The Broncos have done enough good things over the past month to win games — namely, producing a league-best turnover margin — but nobody is mistaking Denver for a team that stops the run or stands up in pass protection particularly well.
That’s what makes Sunday’s matchup for the Broncos (5-5) against the visiting Cleveland Browns (7-3) appear potentially treacherous as Denver tries to push itself firmer into the AFC playoff picture. The areas where the Browns excel most, running the ball and harassing the quarterback, are the areas where the Broncos have tended to be most vulnerable.
“That formula of being able to run the ball well and play good defense, even though it’s 2023, still works,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said this week. “They’re doing it better than anyone.”
The Browns entered Week 12 with the NFL ’s fourth-best rushing attack at 142.7 yards per game. Rush yards account for 43.8 percent of Cleveland’s offense, which is the highest rate in the NFL. Nick Chubb rushed for 1,525 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. It appeared to be a significant blow for a team with aspirations of contending in the AFC, but the injury has hardly slowed a rushing attack that has consistently been among the NFL’s best the past several seasons. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have combined for 827 yards and nine touchdowns.
The train has kept rolling for the Browns and their head coach, Kevin Stefanski.
“Time of possession, snaps run, all those things, they’re extremely, extremely (highly ranked) at,” Payton said. “They do a great job of running the football. (Offensive line coach Bill) Callahan does the run game for them. He and I have worked together. With Kevin, they have an identity offensively, and it very much fits how they’re playing defensively.”
The Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings by a combined three points the past two weeks despite giving up 367 rushing yards, the highest yield in the league during that window. Poor tackling has been an issue, much as it was at the beginning of the season. The Bills produced a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter on six rushes and no passes in the Week 10 game. The Broncos were able to put together a game-winning drive in response, but the ease with which Buffalo moved down the field on the ground in a critical moment continued a concerning trend.
Similar issues popped up against the Vikings in last week’s narrow victory, and Payton lamented a lack of gap integrity.
“When that happens and teams that run the ball hit a gap where you’re not and where you’re supposed to be, you end up with an 8-yard gain instead of a 2-yard gain,” Payton said.
There are a handful of players on Denver’s defense — Justin Simmons , Pat Surtain II and Mike Purcell among them — who know from experience how challenging combating Cleveland’s rushing attack can be. During a 17-14 loss to the Browns in Week 7 of the 2021 season, the Broncos gave up 182 rushing yards and saw Cleveland rush eight times on a clock-melting drive to end the game. The personnel has been tweaked for both teams in the two years since that matchup, but little has changed about the way the Browns want to attack defenses. That is perhaps even more true with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting at quarterback in place of the injured Deshaun Watson .
“They run their gap scheme really well, and they’re committed to it,” Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said. “It’s been working for them. Having a plan to get that stopped is going to be critical.”
Beating the Browns at their own time-of-possession game will require the Broncos to continue protecting the ball (league-low two turnovers in the past four games) and converting third downs at a higher rate than their 2-of-12 display against the Vikings. To achieve both of those goals, the Broncos will have to find a way to minimize the impact of Myles Garrett , the superstar pass rusher who has wrecked the best-laid plans of opponents all season.
Garrett enters the weekend leading the NFL with 13 sacks. Chasing down Michael Strahan’s single-season record of 22 1/2 sacks could be a realistic pursuit. But it’s not just the sacks. Garrett ranks sixth in pressure rate (18.8 percent) among all players with at least 150 pass-rush snaps. His four forced fumbles are the most among any defensive lineman or linebacker. In a victory over the Indianapolis Colts earlier this season, Garrett blocked a field goal after jumping over the Colts’ long snapper and then propelling himself back into the air.
Myles Garrett went up and over to block the FG: #CLEvsIND on CBS
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/f844VPi1ea
— NFL October 22, 2023
In short, Garrett has the ability to wreck a game in one snap. The Broncos have had drives ruined in recent weeks by the likes of Minnesota’s Danielle Hunter and Kansas City ’s Chris Jones , but they’ve largely been able to survive the impact of their opponent’s top pass rusher. Garrett, whom Payton said will most routinely line up on the left side of Denver’s formation and battle with Garett Bolles , will present an entirely different challenge.
“He’s having a season where, I don’t pay attention to awards, but I’ve not seen a defensive player as impactful this season on tape,” Payton said. “He’s changing games. You have to have a protection plan. You have to understand where he is. Now, he’ll come over to the other side periodically. And sometimes he’ll line up inside and rush the guard. But he’s a dominant player. This guy is something else.”
The Broncos should have some advantages Sunday. Thompson-Robinson is making his third NFL start. In his previous two, the rookie out of UCLA completed 55 percent of his passes with zero touchdowns and four interceptions. He is averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt, the bulk of his passes delivered behind, at or just beyond the line of scrimmage. Offensively, the Broncos will catch a break by not having to face Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward , who will miss the game with a shoulder injury he suffered against the Pittsburgh Steelers . The Broncos should have opportunities to take their shots on both sides of the ball.
For the Broncos to make it five in a row, though, they will have to shrink what looks like two major mismatches heading into Sunday’s game. The degree to which Denver can limit Cleveland’s potent rushing attack and limit Garrett will go a long way toward determining whether the Broncos can keep their playoff dreams humming.
(Top photo of Myles Garrett and Garett Bolles: Cooper Neill / )
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