Fourth-down attempts more commonplace for Texas A&M football in Elko era

COLLEGE STATION, Texas (KBTX) - At the end of the Texas A&M football team's first drive of the game at South Carolina, quarterback Marcel Reed looked over at the sideline to get the call.

The Aggies had less than a yard to gain on fourth down with the ball on their own 34 yards line — a gutsy call to keep the Aggie offense on the field that early in the game. After receiving his assignment, he organized his troops in 12 personnel, with two receivers not far off the line of scrimmage. He barked a few hard counts while in shotgun, before scurrying under center, drawing all but two Gamecock defenders to the line of scrimmage. After a few more hard counts, the ball was snapped with Reed's slender 180-pound frame responsible for muscling through two lines to pick up the first down.

He bounced off the line, well short of the first down as a part of a 1 for 3 performance on fourth down for the Aggies in the 44-20 loss. While mostly unsuccessful Saturday, the Aggies' philosophy on fourth down has changed under new head coach Mike Elko and his staff.

"The decisions are made by me," Elko said. "They're not made by anyone else. So, there's no one else to point that one at. We always know what the analytics are, so we have an analytics book. I always know what the analytics say and then it's making the decision you think is right for your team in the moment. So, we don't just follow the analytics book."

So far this season, the Aggies are 6 for 12 when going for it on fourth down, which is more attempts than any season under Jimbo Fisher save 2023. In what turned out to be a losing season for the Aggies, A&M was more prone to need fourth-down attempts as they mounted comeback attempts.

Fisher was famously averse to using analytics in making in-game decisions, a fact that drew comedic shots from fellow Southeastern Conference and Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin.

"It's everybody's choice whether you follow analytics or not, but you know when you're playing certain coaches, well, if we're playing A&M and it's fourth-and-1, no matter where the ball is we're just sending out our punt team," Kiffin told ESPN in 2022. "They're going to punt. That's Jimbo, and I think he's even quoted as saying, you know, 'The game's not played in a book, I'm not looking at a stupid book.'"

The decision to go for it on fourth down begins as a collaborative effort between offensive coordinator Collin Klein and Elko. The pair enter a game prepared with some options for different downs and distances in a game that might be effective to keep the offense on the field, Klein said. The final decision to actually initiate a fourth-down offensive play is Elko's to make.

The Aggies do use an analytics book, which gives the probabilities of success for different downs and distances according to time, score and field position. However, they are not completely bound by what the book says. In Saturday's game, Elko went for it on fourth down approximately 50% of the times they should have, according to the book, he said.

Of those 12 attempts this season, seven have been passing for which the Aggies are 3 of 7. A&M is 3 of 5 on rushing fourth down attempts this season, with both turnover-on-downs occurring in Saturday's game on fourth and 1. Both came in negative territory, as well.

Elko said if those attempts would have been a full yard, the Aggies wouldn't have gone for it. However, they were much less than a yard.

"Those were like, we've just got to move the ball forward and I believe we should be able to do that," he said.

The Aggies have featured a powerful running back in Le'Veon Moss throughout the season, paired with a more finesse runner in Amari Daniels. Moss was lost for the season due to an injury suffered in the first five minutes of the South Carolina game, but that shouldn't change much in the Aggie's fourth-down calls. Moss did not have a carry on any of the Aggie's fourth-down rushing attempts this season. Daniels had three of the five, converting on two. Third-string back EJ Smith picked up a carry late in the Florida win and converted. Marcel Reed failed on a fourth down rushing attempt against South Carolina.

As A&M continues through a season that still has an SEC title game or College Football Playoff appearance on the table, fourth down conversions will remain important. However, it's the play calling that Elko and his staff will consider over A&M's second open week of the season.

"What you question all the time is the calls, right?" Elko said. "Like, I said this all the time, as a head coach, like, you have others make your decisions and you've got to trust them and you've got to trust your process so that you don't ever want to get hesitant or gun shy. You want to play to win and do the things that you think are right to win. What eats you alive as a coach is always the play call, right? Like, could we have called a different play? Could we have done something different? To me, those are the things that eat me alive when those things don't go the way you want them to go. I still believe that we should be a program that can get a half of a yard. Maybe, I find better ways to do that."