Fox News projects Democrat Tammy Baldwin survives tight race to hold Wisconsin Senate seat
Baldwin will now serve a third term in the upper chamber after first being elected in 2012.
The race in Wisconsin was considered particularly competitive given the expectation that the state would also be decisive in the presidential election. With the steep decline in split-ticket voting, a Senate candidate would have a much greater chance at winning if the presidential candidate also took the state.
The Fox News Power Rankings rated Wisconsin as a toss up in the presidential election as of mid-October. In late September, the Senate race was rated "Leans Democrat."
Top political handicapper, the Cook Political Report, had similarly long held that the Wisconsin Senate race was in the "Lean Democrat" category, but last month shifted its rating to a "Toss up," citing a closing polling gap between the candidates.
A source familiar confirmed to Fox News Digital in October that Baldwin's internal polling had shown the candidates within the margin of error.
Baldwin ran unopposed in the Democrats' Senate primary and Hovde avoided a competitive primary with no prominent opponents in the Republican race.
During the campaign, Baldwin attacked the Republican for his business ventures, highlighting his history as a banker, with one of his financial institutions originating in California.
Hovde emphasized Baldwin's lengthy career in Washington, D.C., thus far and the little daylight between her voting record and the policies of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. He also stressed that Baldwin and her partner Maria Brisbane, a private wealth adviser , are not married, and that because of this, the senator avoids having to disclose her financial information and any potential conflicts of interest.
Baldwin earned the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation Board of Directors in early October, a notable achievement in the rural state. The group also referenced its endorsements of two Republican congressmen, Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Tom Tiffany.
"Senator Baldwin, Representative Van Orden and Representative Tiffany support Wisconsin agriculture through engaging directly with the farming community in their districts," said WFBF President Brad Olson in a statement.
"Wisconsin Farm Bureau looks forward to working with Senator Baldwin, Representative Van Orden and Representative Tiffany as they work on behalf of Wisconsin farmers," he said. "Each have demonstrated strong support for policies that tackle the critical challenges faced by farmers and the agricultural industry, including securing crop insurance, expanding policies that open up markets for American agricultural products and advancing agricultural research and innovation."
A recent Quinnipac University Poll showed Baldwin beating Hovde 50% to 46%, a much closer margin than early polls indicated. The survey was conducted Oct. 3-7 and interviewed 1,073 likely voters in Wisconsin. The sampling error in Wisconsin was +/- 3 percentage points.
