Full-scale war in Middle East involving Israel and Iran likely, say most Europeans in poll

Full-scale war in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran is now likely, most western Europeans responding in a poll believe, with many criticising Israel's conduct thus far and saying that if such a war did occur, the US and Europe should not provide it with military aid.

A YouGov Eurotrack survey in France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Denmark and the UK found that strong majorities in all seven countries, ranging from 65% in France to 82% in Spain, felt the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 were not justified.

However, the most commonly held opinion in each country – from a low of 43% in Germany , 46% in France, 47% in the UK, 57% in Italy to a high of 65% in Spain – was that neither have Israel's subsequent attacks in Gaza been justified.

Similar if slightly larger pluralities – from 47% in Denmark through 49% in Germany, 50% in France and the UK and 68% in Spain, consistently one of the EU's most pro-Palestinian member states – said Israel's attacks on Lebanon were unjustified.

Israel's attacks on Iran were also most commonly viewed as not justified in all seven countries, by between 45% (Denmark) and 68% (Spain) of respondents, while Iran's attacks on Israel were condemned by between 58% (France) and 71% (Spain).

The EU has been divided over the conflict in Gaza, with countries such as Spain and Ireland formally recognising a Palestinian state earlier this year but others, including Germany, arguing support of Israel's security is central to its foreign policy .

Asked about Israel's attacks on Gaza , which Palestinian health authorities say have killed more than 43,000 people, the most popular opinion was that Israel had been "right to send troops into Gaza, but has gone too far and killed too many civilians".

That view was held by somewhat smaller pluralities of between 25% (Italy) and 39% (Sweden) – but more respondents (between 16% and 26%) felt Israel had been wrong to use military force against Hamas than that it had acted proportionately (10% to 19%).

Similarly, when asked whether Europe and the US should be doing more to help Israel meet its military objectives or to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu's government from taking military action, pluralities of between 22% (France) and 36% (Spain) chose the latter.

Significant minorities of between 21% (France and the UK) and 25% (Italy), meanwhile, said they felt Europe and the US "should not be involved at all".

Outright majorities ranging from 52% in Denmark through to 58% in France, 59% in Germany and Italy and 61% in the UK and 65% in Spain said they thought full-blown war in the region involving Israel and Iran was either "very" or "fairly" likely.

If such a war were to break out, the most widely held view in all seven countries – from 42% in Denmark to 47% in Britain, 51% in Germany and 59% in Italy – was that Europe and the US should not provide military aid to Israel.

Asked to give their overall opinion of Palestine and Israel, the most common assessment of both in all seven countries was "very" or "fairly" unfavourable. Only in Italy were opinions of Palestine remotely close, with 33% negative and 30% positive.

Elsewhere, 61% of Germans said they had an unfavourable view of Palestine, compared with 15% who were favourable, while the corresponding figures in Sweden were 57% and 20% and in France, 42% unfavourable against 25% favourable.

Opinions of Israel were equally poor, with net favourability ratings ranging from minus 15 in France through minus 24 in Germany, minus 30 in Sweden and minus 33 in Spain.